Sid Suri

@dylanleclair STRC is essentially a stablecoin backed by BTC instead of US Treasuries

@CernBasher @pbeisel Love this 'no host' format - Best part is no part

Digital Optimus I dig into this with @pbeisel - a 2-hour discussion...

@aaronburnett First come, first served

Blue Origin filing for 51k ODC satellites. 3 months ago we suggested that SSO could become a land grab in our analysis. there is a good reason for it. The new space race is all about inference pcmag.com/news/blue-orig…

Tesla FSD had its "Claude Code Moment" at the exact same time (roughly last Nov - Jan) Somehow folks are sleeping on the former, while being aware of the latter My wife and I bought two Teslas over the last quarter because of FSD IT'S INSANE 🚀 (...Next up, the Grok Moment?)

@BitPaine There's a reason he wasn't in that Vanity Fair photoshoot

Michael Saylor has literally the *least fraudulent* business model in the history of mankind. $MSTR does two things: raise capital and buy bitcoin. He clearly and openly states the statistics and performance underlying every single equity he has issued on his website. He clearly and openly delineates how he expects his equities to perform and the math behind them on his earnings calls. The only possible way he could be committing fraud is if he were not actually buying bitcoin with the capital he is raising, but the company is audited and third parties track likely addresses on an open blockchain. Literally any other company on the face of the planet has a higher likelihood of being fraudulent.

@elonmusk @DBurkland @pbeisel While we're at it, any ideas when Optimus Gen 3 will drop?

@DBurkland @pbeisel It’s in testing right now. Wide release in a few weeks.

Tesla’s forthcoming AI5 uses a half-reticle design, which is crucial for yield. A reticle defines the imaging area of a lithography machine, fitting two chips per shot effectively doubles yield. This means the Tesla chip design team had to carefully manage die features, for instance dropping the older ISP (and classic GPU) to make room for more AI cores. By contrast, NVIDIA’s Blackwell fills nearly a full reticle, making it a single-reticle design. If Tesla hits its compute and efficiency targets with AI5 in this half-reticle format, it’s almost like cutting fab requirements in half. And this has a big impact on Terafab, especially if it carries forward for AI6, AI7, etc.

@aaronburnett Indeed. Whether or not humanity can scale AI and create true abundance depends largely on Starship and @elonmusk

33 Raptor 3 static fire is the single most important AI test happening in the next ~month.

For the record. As Operation Epic Fury continues ahead of schedule. Doomers freak on hot PPI print. Wall Street has never met a data point it couldn’t torture into a grand narrative. This week’s hot PPI print and an oil supply wobble are merely the latest props in a familiar morality play: inflation is back, the spiral is here, and only higher-for-longer can save us from ourselves. The same crowd that insisted “wages cause inflation” and “tariffs cause inflation” now chants “supply shock causes entrenched inflation” with the same unearned certainty. It’s not analysis; it’s Pavlovian Keynesianism dressed up in a PowerPoint deck. The basic error is embarrassingly simple. A relative price shock – oil, shipping, selective bottlenecks – is treated as a permanent, economy‑wide regime change rather than what it almost always is: a one‑time tax on real incomes that eventually snuffs out its own impulse. Yes, it sounds counterintuitive, but high energy prices are ultimately deflationary, because they choke off real economic growth by squeezing household budgets and raising business costs, which dampens demand across the rest of the economy. Instead of distinguishing between level effects and ongoing inflation, between transient cost pressure and genuine wage‑price dynamics, Wall Street happily sums everything under the banner of “sticky inflation” and calls it a thesis. Meanwhile, the same strategists who were visibly late to the first inflation wave now overcompensate by seeing ghosts in every monthly print. They extrapolate the noisiest components, ignore base effects, and airbrush away the supply response that higher prices inevitably trigger. The oil market is treated as a static cartoon, shock goes in, inflation comes out, rather than a dynamic system where new supply, substitution, and policy all work to neutralize the initial hit. The fact that prior energy spikes have given way to lower inflation as the dust settles is quietly forgotten; it doesn’t fit the slide deck. Overlay that with the Trump strategy, a coming peace dividend and the Street’s blindness looks even more costly. A deliberate push to rebuild domestic supply, deregulate production, and normalize trade terms is already working its way through the system ahead of schedule, setting up exactly what the inflation doomers say is impossible: a dramatic fall in prices and a genuine peace dividend as energy, logistics, and geopolitical risk premia all deflate. The architecture is in place for cheaper goods, cheaper energy, and a re‑pricing of risk away from permanent crisis and back toward productive investment. Against that backdrop, the Powell Fed is not “prudent,” it is materially too tight. Fed funds should already be sitting near a neutral 2.75%, not pinned in a zone designed for yesterday’s inflation scare. And yet Wall Street’s Keynesians house view still pretends that policy is roughly appropriate, while conveniently ignoring one awkward empirical fact: it takes at least 24 months for the full effect of rate cuts to transmit through the real economy. By the time the same people who misread the first wave of inflation finally concede that policy is restrictive, the lagged impact of today’s stance will already be biting into growth and prices. Investors should, once again, do the opposite of what the Doomer narrative prescribes: discount the coming disinflation,fading the inflation doom shock. A too‑tight Fed marching behind the curve, a Trump strategy accelerating the restoration of supply and security, and long lags in monetary transmission are not the ingredients of an endless inflation spiral; they are the set‑up for falling prices and a peace‑time repricing of assets. The tragedy is that Wall Street, still hyperventilating over a PPI release, is about to miss the turn, again.

@Gfilche @SpaceX @Tesla @_SFTahoe @TeslaLarry All star crew!

Terafab & the Inevitable @SpaceX + @Tesla merger ⚡️ I sat down with @_SFTahoe & @TeslaLarry to discuss Tesla's plan to build chips, and how that will be the key partnership for a full merger with SpaceX/XAI 🎙️ 0:45 SpaceX to $100T 2:30 SpaceX Plans To Be 10X Bigger Than NVIDIA 5:20 The Terafab is Coming! Impact & Timing 22:36 Digital Optimus & MARCROHARD Project 37:03 SpaceX/Tesla/xAI Cash Needs 41:40 The SpaceX IPO Process 48:08 The Biggest Merger/Company of All-time? 54:17 Grok Is Helping With All of This 🙏 Huge thanks to Larry & Amy for coming on the show! Two of the most knowledgable voices on these topics!

@gerovich This is what it's all about. Growth the collateral base via equity financings, and then issue permanent leverage against it. In the long run this will be extremely accretive to shareholders. Everything else is noise. Onwards @DylanLeClair 🫡💯

Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.

@RoaringRagnar @DylanLeClair @AM13978371 @gerovich Couldn't agree more. We got a Bitcoin buy at these prices, and eventually this means more collateral to issue prefs against. All else is noise. Onwards 🫡

Dylan, simply ignore those whiners, and continue to relentlessly execute and build. It doesn't matter what you say, because their emotional fortitude is the underlying issue. If people trust in your team's ability, they should stay invested. And if they don't trust you, they should sell and get it over with. I haven't sold a single share in the past 6 months, but have kept adding. It's now deep winter in Metaplanet land, but cherry blossom season is near, I reckon. 🌸

Metaplanet has issued 100 million Moving Strike Warrants with a first-of-its-kind mNAV clause. Exercise is only permitted when the stock trades above 1.01x mNAV, ensuring every share issued increases shareholder value. This enables the company to raise an estimated $234M in additional capital to buy BTC, unlocked only when it's accretive to BTC per share. $MPJPY

@aaronburnett Hard lesson in hardware incoming

Exhibit A

@elonmusk Just don't donate it to a nonprofit...

Btw, the proceeds of any legal victory in the OpenAI case will be donated to charity. I will in no way enrich myself.

Many new institutional eyes on STRC right now. Lots of analysis being done on the potential BTC price impact as this scales up.

@JackRyanPV @TheJakeRita

Ghost War. Movie Teaser Tomorrow.

@aaronburnett Amazon: We demand a moratorium. Starcloud can never achieve this

Now that starcloud’s application has been accepted, I’m curious to see if comments go as hard trying to discredit starcloud’s plans as they did SpaceX.

@TeslaLarry @TeslaBoomerMama Rule #1: Don't bet against Elon Rule #2: Always pay heed to TBM!

@TeslaBoomerMama in a thoughtful post on the potential for a SpaceX/Tesla merger post the SpaceX IPO. She and I are in violent agreement on the optimum course forward. Due to the highly probably early inclusion into the Nasdaq and/or S&P indexes, there will not be a long lock-up period. So, I do believe there will be a great deal of liquidity for SpaceX shareholders AND - consequently - Tesla shareholders. Not financial advice, but to pay heed to TBM!

@TeslaBoomerMama Great article! 🎯💯

@elonmusk @AmanGotchu @SpaceX @xai

@AmanGotchu @SpaceX @xai Welcome!

I'm joining @SpaceX and @xai to build the best coding AI. For the last couple years I founded the most widely used coding agent for Android, scaling it to millions in revenue with a team of 3. I've watched model capabilities compound at a staggering rate and we're clearly on the brink of recursive superintelligence. This is the most important problem to solve in history and requires an immense amount of resources to realize. xAI is the place to build the future. Frontier compute, extraordinary talent, and a strong hold on physical intelligence and space. If you want to focus on executing towards the most important problems of our time, DM me. We're in challenger mode and we are building the winning team.

@DylanLeClair @noritaka_okabe HODL and BUILD

@noritaka_okabe メタプラネットは、ビットコイン担保融資の価値を身をもって理解しています。現在、BTCを担保に約2.8億ドル（約447億円）を借り入れています。 しかし、BTC担保で日本円を借りる市場はまだ初期段階です。今後数年で大きな可能性が広がる分野だと考えています。

BTCは暗号資産の中でも特別です。 既にMorphoというWBTCを担保にJPYCを借りる仕組みがありますが、このように上場企業が関与する形で暗号資産と電子決済手段が繋がるのはもっと後だと思っていました。 非常に速い動きで大きな可能性を感じます。 JPYCはAI経済圏の日本円の基軸通貨でもあります。

@RuthBuscombe Ruth your analysis is amazing! Keep sharing please

🛞 Watch the front-left tyre today. Shanghai is brutal on it. Through the long Turn 1–2 spiral the tyre is loaded for several seconds. Once graining starts the driver begins sliding, temperatures rise, and lap time disappears quickly. The Sprint told us a lot: Medium graining around 0.13s/lap Hard degradation just ~0.01s/lap That’s why the race could split between: • M → H one-stop • M → H → H if graining becomes severe The difference between those two strategies might simply be who can protect the front-left tyre. 📩 The Chinese GP Race Strategy Briefing just dropped. 🚨If you haven’t joined The Race Strategy Society yet, you can still get the debrief for a VERY limited time: mailchi.mp/kentixen/the-r… 🔔 Want more? Subscribe to the Strategy Channel for extended video briefings: : @TheRaceStrategySociety?sub_confirmation=" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@TheRaceStrate…