Tim Miller

@brandenflasch My R2 is going to replace my lightning. It’s not apples to apples, obviously. I’ll miss the truck. But the R2 is better for my roadtrip family.

Is an R2 worth 2x HW4 used Model Y? Worth more than my Lightning? Those are the questions...

@TiffanyFong Perspective

How does the existence of a trillionaire negatively impact anyone else’s life?

It does make sense if you consider all that Rivian is taking in to account: not just reservation date and previous ownership but also proximity and (I was told) they are trying to coordinate lease end and are giving some out by lottery. As others have noted, the lottery gives them good data on “random” reservation conversion, not just current owners/early reservations.

@RivianRuckus Whatever math Rivian is doing to get these emails out, its weird.

How are all these non-R1 owners and new reservations getting the order emails? wtf

The #10 fella in the blue shirt is pretty good.

@EGonzo_28 @Hilbe Congrats!

@Hilbe Ordering tonight. It will be my first EV. 😃

Kind of wild TBH.

@Hilbe I was told that some reservation holders will get selected via lottery.

@KevinMelnuk @GrantTDM @Rivian Yeah they continue to execute their stated plan quarter after quarter.

@GrantTDM @ThMTim @Rivian It’s exactly what it was supposed to be. It’ll get them to $30+ B in revenue and profits. Then R3 and others come at lower prices. They’ve been clear.

.@Rivian R2 production and delivery ramp is going well. Reservation conversion rate seems high. Everyone loves R2. I haven’t heard anything significant about QC issues. Market is up. Someone explain this to me. @KevinMelnuk

@HOLYONEULTIMATE @Rivian @KevinMelnuk I mean I don’t think anyone thought R2 was gonna “dethrone” model y 6 weeks after the start of production. Then again, there are psychos on the internet.

@ThMTim @Rivian @KevinMelnuk x.com/i/status/20669…

@ChargerHunter …order.

What should i do...

@Hilbe This all seems reasonable to me.

📊 My R2 Q2 Estimates 📊 Pessimistic: 2,000 to 2,500 Realistic: 2,500 to 3,000 Optimistic: 3,000 to 3,500+ Explanation: Everyone keeps asking me "how many R2 are they making?". To me this means velocity, or how many units they make per day/week/month. We've seen ~1,000 VINs arriving at service centers. Assuming those units spent a few weeks in transit, they were produced near the start of the month of June. I will need to see a door jam label to confirm a "6/26" date to be certain. A few weeks prior we saw a 500 VIN QR code at the governors visit on May 19th. Based on these data points, let us assume they made 500 R2 in 2 weeks or 250/week. This number will continue to go up, but there are only 2 weeks left in June. Simple math without any increase in speed for the month of June you get to the below estimates. 6/1 - 1,000 6/15 - 1,500 6/30 - 2,000 (End of Q2) Assuming they increase velocity of the line you should see those numbers improve over the month of June. This is how I did my estimate - my very worst/base case they have 2,000 made by EOM. If they improve production to 300 to 400/week we see a more realistic number. If they put the pedal to the floor and hit no supply chain issues maybe they finish the quarter with over 3,000 R2 produced. What's your guess?

@RivianFanatic @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Yeah at this point I’m not sure what it will take for the price to hold. It seems like investors really only care if the company makes money. Once they’re profitable, the market will pay attention to HOW they’re profitable and will price the stock accordingly.

@ThMTim @Rivian @KevinMelnuk Q2 earnings call might not move the numbers enough. Sadly I feel it will take 2 years (2028) when you will see the stock POP and HOLD. Lately it pops but never holds. If miraculously we get Point-to-Point Supervised driving by EOY it might help.

@Hilbe @gdann27 I don’t want to quibble, but 2 months isn’t until next Monday (6/22). If they are DELIVERING 985, they have to be over 1000 produced. By Monday I’d guess they’ll be close to 1500, no? Seems like the ramp is going well.

@gdann27 Took them roughly 2 months to hit 1,000. Keep in mind it's hard to track performance since they are ramping up. This week should be different from the last.

VIN 985!

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie I want Rivian to officially and publicly say it out loud so the stock does some hockey stick stuff.

Good news is with vins we can get a pretty good idea. We’ve heard do 1,460 vins, we’ve seen 1,000+ on the ground places, lots in the 500-1000 range at service centers. 100 stores x 2 = 200-300 at Rivian stores. We will see 2,000 vins popping up online sometime soon. 300-400 or so being built a week so we will have 2,000-2,500 by end of June.

Saw vin 904 on a half moon grey R2 after my demo drive today. Production is ramping! @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie

@R1Stephanie @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk ‘Twas fun. Kids LOVED it. Dad’s gotta come up with some $$$

@RivianTrackr @ThMTim @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk Hope the demo was fun! @ThMTim

@R1Stephanie @KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe Wicked smaat

@ThMTim @KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe I look at the vin (bottom( and manufacture month (top corner) on the plate and the vin. Same month 5/26 and about 383 to 713. Gives a data point on production numbers for R2.

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie Agreed it would be stupid not to. And all the more reasons since it seems like it’s going well. But, as you’ve said, sometimes it seems like Rivian is its own worst enemy when they communicate. VERY conservative.

@ThMTim @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie No required but 100000% R2 will be its own. They’d be stupid not to split it out. It’s all anyone cares about including them.

@KevinMelnuk @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie Are they required to give numbers by model? I’m afraid they’re going to give overall numbers.

@ThMTim @RivianTrackr @Hilbe @R1Stephanie They have to legally and that’ll be 7/2

@RivianTrackr @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie I hope we get some real, specific production and delivery numbers at the end of Q2. Seems like it’s going well.

@ThMTim @Hilbe @KevinMelnuk @R1Stephanie Orlando has VINs over 1xxx now

I don’t have anything new to add about the @Rivian R2: it’s fantastic. I want one. I’m glad I own #RIVN.