Toby

A top aide to President Donald Trump said the Pentagon estimates the Iran war, now in its third week, would take between four and six weeks Oil and gas traders:

@citrinowicz Excellent analysis. Appreciate the succinct delivery.

Tactical success against Iran is masking a deeper strategic dilemma for Washington Without a clear strategic decision diplomacy or a dramatic expansion of the war, the United States risks drifting toward uncontrolled escalation in the Gulf: A. Rarely has the gap between operational success and strategic outcomes been as stark as it is in the current confrontation with Iran. Night after night, Israeli and U.S. forces are striking targets linked to the Iranian regime, exploiting almost complete freedom of action in the air. From a tactical and operational standpoint, the campaign is impressive. Yet paradoxically, the continuation of these strikes may be strengthening Iran’s strategic position rather than weakening it. B. The reason lies in the growing perception in Tehran that the United States has reached the limits of its willingness to escalate. Despite the ongoing strikes, Washington has not succeeded in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, halting missile and drone attacks against Israel, or stopping the broader pressure campaign affecting Gulf shipping. C.As long as the administration threatens escalation while carefully avoiding crossing the Rubicon, such as striking critical Iranian infrastructure—the leadership in Tehran is likely to conclude that the worst is already behind them. That perception could encourage Iran to raise its demands for ending the war, potentially including compensation or even a reduction of the U.S. military presence in the Gulf. D. This dynamic leaves Washington facing a strategic dilemma with no easy exit. 1. If the war continues in its current form, Iran may actually benefit. Oil markets are already reacting to the threat to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and prices could climb further if instability persists. That calculation does not even include the possibility of a more active entry by the Houthis into the confrontation. 2. On the other hand, expanding the target set to include core Iranian infrastructure could ignite a far wider regional conflict. Tehran would almost certainly retaliate across the Gulf, likely targeting energy infrastructure and maritime traffic. The consequences for global energy markets and for regional stability could be severe. In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation. Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand. That perception makes a diplomatic outcome progressively harder to achieve. If diplomacy remains the objective, the window may be closing. The United States and its partners will soon have to make a strategic decision: move quickly toward a negotiated settlement, or prepare for a far more ambitious campaign aimed at fundamentally weakening the Iranian regime—an undertaking that would carry enormous risks and uncertain outcomes. Continuing the current approach indefinitely may be the most dangerous option of all: a slow slide toward uncontrolled escalation in the Gulf. #IranWar

Something logical to come put of all of this

@gbrew24 Divine comedy...

Trump: high oil prices are good.

@BenniKim Comical

Throwing Jared, the DUI warlord and the dimwit diplomat under the bus.

@Rory_Johnston Top point. There is no mitigation of industry, travel or demand now. Parabolic could be stated as modest.

Plenty of folks saying that the Iran war pushing oil prices >$100 would solve itself by killing demand BUT the current supply loss is larger than the peak of COVID demand destruction in Spring 2020 when we locked down and airports emptied At what price would YOU lockdown again?

@BenniKim Massive kick in the balls. They will feel this one.

No more money for Donnie's projects and US AI data centers.

@OilCfd @VandanaHari_SG Exactly, they've been running two slates to 'appear'compliant anyway, domestic use gets the grey feedstock and export gets waivored/compliant

@VandanaHari_SG Indians couldn't care less about sanctions, they are running dry and keep buying whatever they can find

There is a caveat to the Russia oil waiver for India — “loaded on vessels as of March 5”. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Russia-related General License 133, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products of Russian Federation Origin Loaded on Vessels as of March 5, 2026 to India."

@CRUDEOIL231 @acemoney21 Yeah this is it, looking at midterms coming up and the current admins percent for short term fixes, this will be their 'aha got it' idea to lower prices

They’re going to end up dumping the SPR. They know it’s a mistake, but they’ll do it anyway bc they’ve got no other choice. Then they’ll start shorting oil futures through Team Treasury. It’s all just a one-day fix though. They need to actually deal with the root cause. But based on everything said so far, they still seem nowhere near that. And besides, why would Iran even back down?

Do you seriously think this is the fix? It’s just easing a tiny bottleneck and shifting where the oil goes. Russia doesn’t have those massive floating storage anymore—we’re talking 20 to 30 million barrels max. The actual balance hasn't really changed at all. Meanwhile, at least 15 mb/d of crude/co exports are still paralyzed in the Middle East. Good luck with that. #oott #com

@JoshYoung The SPR will go to domestic SOEs and teapots. Marginal and dislocated bbls will get sold in to strength, as with shenhong offering Iraqi out.

The bear thesis: China will dump their SPR on the market The super bull thesis: China will restrict exports of oil AND refined products Looks like the oil bulls win this round:

@SStapczynski Looking sharp, love the tie.

The world’s largest LNG export plant was shut after an Iranian drone attack I explain why you should care

My position prior to market open with @FOWgroup

@Rory_Johnston Oh.. dude. My sides lol

Iran foreign minister, pictured

@UnintendedCons5 And they have said ad much... but quite frankly, when does congress step in. I've benefited and honestly enjoyed the vol. But surely the American people have to reassess and implement those "checks & balances" no?

TBH this means nothing - they have other tools and won’t change much

@Big_Orrin @NebHuskies Ding, ding, ding!

@ATRightMovies Withnail

@Rory_Johnston Broooo 🤣

Nigerian Trump would absolutely cheat on his OPEC quota.

@CRUDEOIL231 Nah mate. Glass houses / throwing stones etc

Since most of my followers are deep in the weeds on geopolitics and commodities, let’s run a poll and see where everyone's at. Q. You think the US-Iran talks are gonna tank and lead to a kinetic conflict(within one month)?

@Big_Orrin Clenched teeth: "listen cunt...#$&#$%" in Moldovan

Enjoyed the interview, thanks for having me @gulf_intel youtu.be/bZ-OsaHtcVY?si…