Nostra Thomas

Teen wRC+ leaders = who's who of @StatlineScout studs. 1. Jackson Holliday (168) 2. Junior Caminero 3. Thayron Liranzo 4. Samuel Basallo 🎥👇 5. Xavier Isaac 6. Jett Williams 7. Roman Anthony 8. Termarr Johnson (137)

@BaseballATeam x.com/TomTrudeau/sta… Apparently not. It has helped identify stud prospects faster than anywhere else. It’s not a weakness that it also helps find role players with a chance that other sources think have 0 chance.

@TomTrudeau lol. You do remember who I am, right? You've told me more than enough for me to know the strengths and weaknesses inside and out.

I'm still chuckling at the ongoing John Gil hype. It's bled over into fantasy leagues now. With all the data access we have now, it's amazing how gullible we remain. (not saying I'm immune, though I'm not falling for a future up-and-down utility guy from a busted system)

@yakyucosmo @grok contextualize Miyagi’s baseball savant data to compare to MLB pitchers

Hiroya Miyagi's Baseball Savant data from tonight

@BaseballATeam @rossjensen @StatlineScout There's a peak per PA fantasy rank and WAR rank. Nacho's per PA fantasy value is so-so, but his WAR projection indicates he is underrated and could be a regular in a few years. (For someone who has yet to ever subscribe to StS you have a lot of certainty about the model!)

@rossjensen @TomTrudeau @StatlineScout Tom's the one who brought STS into the conversation (and tagged your accounts). All I pointed out is that the model is good at flagging irl role players who lack fantasy asset value.

@BaseballATeam @StatlineScout Nacho still projects as a solid regular at peak. He's a baby by MLB'er standards.

@TomTrudeau @StatlineScout Same. Exact same. 110 max EV and STS thought he could hit. Gil might be another Nacho or Meidroth, but there's no point stashing those guys for their prospect years in most formats (including ours).

OOPSY 2026 Top 100 Prospects blogs.fangraphs.com/oopsy-2026-top…

Prospect of the Day! Nelson Rada LAA, AAA, CF | Rank: #68 Projection: 118 wRC+, 9 HR, 42 SB Rada was a @StatlineScout favorite back in 2023 and early in 2024 in large part because he has adequately managed to handle very advanced assignments at young ages. His prospect stock hit a snag in 2024 as he only hit .234. Granted he was just 18 years old playing in Double-A as well. In 2025 Rada returned to that level, and it seems a year of maturity made a world of different. Rada did what Rada does best > get on base and swipe extra bags. He was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A and continued to improve as the season wore on. He's really going to need to lean into those skills, as it's becoming more and more apparent that his power is capped. Fortunately I think Rada is up to the task, and he is likely to make his MLB debut in 2026 at just 20 years old. This future Angels leadoff hitter is one of the most underrated prospects in the game!

Holy shit. I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video… everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again. ❤️ 🤖 wsj.com/tech/ai/google…

@grok @KevinCole___ Any research on predictive power of pff grades for qbs or other positions?

Year-over-year correlations for QB stats (from sites like SumerSports, nfelo, Sharp Football): EPA/play ~0.4-0.6 (highest stability), ANY/A ~0.3-0.5, passer rating ~0.3-0.5. EPA edges out for predictiveness due to situational context. For longevity/retaining roles, early EPA/play >0, win %, draft position, and adjusted yards/attempt are key predictors per 4for4 and AtoZ Sports analyses. Team support matters too.

2025 quarterback efficiency (EPA/play), min 150 dropbacks, through SNF 1) Sam Darnold +0.35 📈 2) Jordan Love +0.34 3) Drake Maye +0.31 📉 4) Josh Allen +0.28 📈 5) Dak Prescott +0.26 6) Patrick Mahomes +0.25 📉 7) Daniel Jones +0.25 📉 8) Matthew Stafford +0.23 📈 9) Jared Goff +0.20 📉 10) Jalen Hurts +0.19 11) Jaxson Dart +0.17 12) Justin Herbert +0.16 13) Baker Mayfield +0.15 14) C.J. Stroud +0.14 15) Aaron Rodgers +0.13 16) Mac Jones +0.12 📈 17) Bo Nix +0.11 18) Kyler Murray +0.10 19) Caleb Williams +0.09 📈 20) Jayden Daniels +0.08 21) Michael Penix Jr. +0.07 22) Carson Wentz +0.06 23) Trevor Lawrence +0.01 24) Justin Fields +0.01 25) Tua Tagovailoa 0.00 26) Bryce Young -0.01 27) Geno Smith -0.01 📈 28) Spencer Rattler -0.01 29) Joe Flacco -0.01 30) Dillon Gabriel -0.13 31) Cam Ward -0.20

@grok @KevinCole___ What are the relative year over year correlations for QB stats including EPA/play? what stats are the most predictive of longevity and retaining starting roles?

Yes, analyses from SumerSports and stats sites show EPA/play is generally more predictive of future QB production than ANY/A or passer rating, with stronger year-over-year correlations (~0.6 for EPA). Passer rating holds up comparably in stability, but EPA better accounts for situational impact. Team factors influence all.

@JonHaidt @grok is there research about this impriting idea beyond sports and to other hobbies, forms of culture, entertainment and digital content, etc. ?

More evidence for the sensitive period hypothesis: Boys are especially "imprinted" by the teams that won championships when boys were 8-12. Their brains are soaking up culture and values, weighted by prestige. Don't let social media choose who imprints and guides their brain dev

@Ihartitz I like Cool shit. Would be neat if clever fantasy analysts like you guided on signal vs noise. Theres a white space for analysts who take the extra step on “is this predictive or descriptive?” So we can make better decisions.

"Cool shit" is a stat I just made up that is an RB's total touchdowns, explosive plays and tackles avoided divided by their carries and targets. Highest percentage of cool shit per opportunity: 1. Jonathan Taylor (45%) 2. Bijan Robinson (44%) 3. Kenneth Walker (41%)

@NBAonPrime Shoutout NBA on Prime producers to try and provide X & o’s insight vs lowest common denominator talking head debates.

Class is in session on the LED court with the #NBAonPrime crew 📚 ✍️

It took more than 200 years for the national debt to hit one trillion. The national debt just increased by one trillion dollars in the past 70 days. There are no brakes on this train. None.

@NFL_DovKleiman @grok is catch rate predictive in a small sample or just a descriptive stat that people use for engagement? Be concise.

Yikes: Since 2000, Brian Thomas Jr's 28% catch rate this season is the LOWEST of any WR to see 25+ targets through 3 weeks. He ranks 522nd out of 522. What is going on with him?? 😳

Kendall George now projects to be an above average overall hitter, along with the highest stolen base projection in the minor leagues! On the season he has 85 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts. If you have the need for speed, George currently looks like the best bet you'll find!

"I think you're crazy": a post on players I think the industry is too low on! Luis Peña - he's up, but not enough Rainiel Rodriguez Sal Stewart Nelson Rada Aron Estrada Nate George Juneiker Caceres Dauri Fernandez Jacob Reimer Hector Rodriguez Lazaro Montes Who makes your list?

The top 10 hitting prospects by @ProspectLarceny's Formulated Ranking! 1. Konnor Griffin 🎦 2. Kevin McGonigle 3. Max Clark 4. A.J. Ewing 5. Samuel Basallo 6. Luis Peña 7. Josue Briceño 8. Luke Adams 9. Walker Jenkins 10. Nelson Rada Become a member to see how all 1,400+ hitting prospects rank!

Favorite Sunday Ritual: catching up on prospects on @StatlineScout at the local coffee shop