samwhy

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samwhy

samwhy

@_samwhy

Living in violation of the universe's ToS.

เข้าร่วม Mart 2026
151 กำลังติดตาม8 ผู้ติดตาม
samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@teortaxesTex @mormongoblin Every state who obtained nuclear weapons did so with ten years or so (even India and Pakistan for God’s sake!). And you think the Iranians were just not able to? They chose not to for ideological reasons and they are being obliterated for making this idiotic decision.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex·
> and we're supposed to believe they never figured out how to build nuclear weapons? oh they know how to build them they just get bombed or killed before they can complete the job. the fatwa is real too ofc. but they can't even finish the preparatory stages
Uncensored.AI@GoUncensored

So Iran has hypersonic missiles, cluster munitions, the most advanced, war ready and cost efficient drone model on the planet and they've effectively been fighting 6 countries at once for 3 weeks with a yearly budget of $10 billion. and we're supposed to believe they never figured out how to build nuclear weapons? Nonsene. If Iran wanted a nuclear weapon, they'd have one. They don't and never did. Joe Kent's telling the truth, they literally voted against developing them in 2004. "Iran must NEVER get a nuclear weapon" is the "Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction" of 2026. This entire is treasonous and based on a total lie.

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captive dreamer
captive dreamer@captive_dreamer·
Pascal Bruckner: "Europe got over the loss of its colonies much more quickly than the colonies got over their loss of Europe."
captive dreamer tweet media
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@CoffeewClassics @RachelXReads I honestly wouldn't worry about it. As a technical problem, AI detection is pretty much solved (see Pangram). If you don't use AI to write, you have nothing to worry about—use as many em dashes as you want.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
Has Pangram compared the ability of humans vs. Pangram in detecting AI writing? AI writing seems to have some obvious signals ("it is not X, but Y", em dashes, "blah blah is real", and so on), so whenever I am tempted to check Pangram, I am usually right (that the piece was written by AI). Of course, there is a severe selection bias here—I don't check any writing that I don't suspect, so I am curious whether I am consuming a lot more AI slop than I think.
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Max Spero
Max Spero@max_spero_·
@goblinodds It was right though. It said 100% human. I’d rather people use Pangram (which has a vanishingly low false positive rate) than rely on error-prone heuristics like number of em dashes
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@policytensor @MacaesBruno But it's undoubtedly a massive strategic blunder on Iran's part not to go for a bomb. Pretty much every other country did it in 5-15 years. And the US ended up attacking anyway! So their calculus clearly failed.
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Certainly breakout would have. But a rush to achieve breakout would’ve invited a US attack. So it wasn’t an easy decision. Imagine on the other hand if they had shut Hormuz when they were attacked by Israel and then the US. They’d have forced the issue that they are forcing now after taking 100X the punishment.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@ripplebrain The recent stock market boom that @teortaxesTex was referring is pretty much all due to Israeli defense companies. Other countries want war-tested equipment and Israel is always at war. It’s hard to say it’s fake, or more fake than typical stock markets.
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Amerikanets 📉
Amerikanets 📉@ripplebrain·
I'll grant you this: given the status quo the Israelis will probably be able to finesse whatever they need from the US government to keep their fake economy propped up, and it'll be paid for with my tax dollars. This parasitism, corruption, and scamming just screams first world.
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Amerikanets 📉
Amerikanets 📉@ripplebrain·
You say this as we witness the most obvious market manipulation in living memory. Your line is fake, and is composed of absurdly suspicious deals and open looting of the US economy that even the fake market identifies as such. Childishness is believing this charade can be kept up even as your coethnics' most critical economic assets erupt into fireballs as we speak.
Amerikanets 📉 tweet mediaAmerikanets 📉 tweet mediaAmerikanets 📉 tweet media
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

Israel has been on an exponential bull run ever since Oct 7. If you don't understand (or don't want to understand) why that will continue, you're in no position to dunk on me. The world doesn't work according to your childish third worldist wishes. Matthew 25:29.

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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@favelaoverlord @ObtainerOf Why do you not think the Iranian won’t keep going until they get a peace deal? That is their goal most likely. Aside from destroying civilian infrastructure to pressure them, it’s hard to see what else US/Israel can do to stop the Iranians.
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Mr. S.T.A.R.
Mr. S.T.A.R.@favelaoverlord·
@ObtainerOf what’s the new paradigm? on a long enough timespan (a couple months) they facilitate such immense demand destruction that the SoH becomes useless; also continuation of the war means further trading of fossil fuel infrastructure - which, once again, makes the strait useless.
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Mr. S.T.A.R.
Mr. S.T.A.R.@favelaoverlord·
I’m feeling a ‘vibe shift’ and I think this will be resolved, some way, within the next 10 days or so.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
But how does he finish it? There are really no good options for him. A US ground invasion (not just limited ground ops) is really the most plausible path at this point, and I do think if it happens, it will eventually succeed. Israel is getting everything it wants, of course, but Trump is stuck in a position where he is either humiliated or he escalates what is the most unpopular war in US history.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
There is an NYT published article that is 100% LLM generated. Check out the 6 March 2026 Reza Aslan article: nytimes.com/2026/03/06/opi… According to pangram, it all AI generated. I contacted NYT with the evidence (pangram as well as stylistic evidence) and they refused to acknowledge that AI was used (as if they would know!).
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Max Spero
Max Spero@max_spero_·
Saw that @gwern found an AI-written op-ed in WSJ. @jennajrussell's recent paper on AI in the news found that op-eds contained 6x as much AI content as regular news outlet pages (4.5% overall) and most contributors using AI were from guest contributors.
Max Spero tweet media
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@benlandautaylor And guarantee centuries of war in this new homeland? It's also not clear that it has worked well for the Israelis just yet. Israel has historically been very dependent on Western support, and I don't think Armenians will be able to capture Western interest to the same extent.
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Ben Landau-Taylor
Ben Landau-Taylor@benlandautaylor·
What if some other persecuted groups also tried the strategy of carving out a new state in a distant land where the locals can’t put together a real army. Kurdish homeland in South America. New Boer Republic in western Indochina. Armenian settler state in central Africa.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@teortaxesTex Reading your tweets, it seems Israel's every move is 4D chess. I think your confidence in them is too high. It's impressive to see their decapitation strikes. But that's probably the height of it. In the real world, everyone makes mistakes, even Israel.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex·
Btw Israel is perfectly OK with this Gulf petrostates are quite uppity. Zionists have been whining for years now how Qatar lobby is flush with cash and is intruding on their turf (or even lobbying in *Israel*, the chutzpah!) Iran can take care of that. That's some real 4D chess.
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) tweet mediaTeortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) tweet media
NewsWire@NewsWire_US

Major Fire Breaks Out at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Complex After Iranian Attack — World's Largest Facility Affected

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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@ayatr0llah On the contrary, attacking the GCC and destroying (or threatening to destroy) their oil facilities is Iran's best move for ending the war on its own terms. They can't win a war against the US, but they can win a war against the stock market.
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
really open question the point at which everyone will admit that iran's attacks on the gcc are backfiring
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
I am not so sure. Economic turbulence is every president's weak point! Not just Trump's. Iran would be executing this same strategy regardless of who is president. That said, the economy is Trump's particular weak point. He wants this war to be quickly over, especially if it tanks the stock market, given the war's overwhelming unpopularity. And as long as Israel hits Iran, Iran will choke traffic on the Strait. This all needs to be resolved together.
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Tacos and Airplanes
Tacos and Airplanes@blob_watcher·
Not possible for Trump to back down now and make concessions to Iran, or else he'll look weak and everybody (above all the Iranians) will know his pain point: economic turbulence. And the Israelis are going to continue hitting Iran anyways, even in the absence of the US.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@kshahrooz @deagonx776 I actually have met a bunch of Iranian graduate students in North American universities. A minority are monarchists (I have always found this puzzling), but most are not. I am sure that the monarchists are cheering for this war, but as for the rest, I am not so sure...
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Kaveh Shahrooz کاوه شهروز
Kaveh Shahrooz کاوه شهروز@kshahrooz·
It's a hard thing to do, but the Iran war requires us to hold conflicting thoughts. A lot of people are struggling with this. 1. The war is (at least for now) morally justified, but of dubious legality, both under domestic American law and int'l law. 2. The assassination of Iran's officials fills many of us with joy, but the practice, universalized, would lead to international chaos. 3. Israel and America are doing something in the interest of Iranian people, but their interest may also be served by acts that harm Iranians (leaving the regime in place, balkanization of the country, etc).
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@manniefabian Are these videos supposed to increase Iranian support for their strikes? You would think they would curate the footage they publish to at least those that don't involve the killing of bystanders!
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Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian·
The Israeli Air Force has been striking Basij soldiers and its checkpoints across Tehran in the past few hours, the IDF says.
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
@john_bravo6 @policytensor I sure hope so! I bought some shares in crude oil since I expect this to get much worse in the next few months. I will make good money if you are right.
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John
John@john_bravo6·
@_samwhy @policytensor You over estimate the power of the US military. It is a shadow of what it was in the 1990's.
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
I suppose it is not the FT’s fault that the director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme is so poorly informed. How exactly does the West propose to put Iran in the box that it put Saddam with Iran in possession of the Hormuz weapon?
Policy Tensor tweet media
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samwhy
samwhy@_samwhy·
I agree, and I do think it would be difficult. But with the overwhelming firepower and logistics of the US military, I do think they would eventually get it under control. The Iranians' only hope is to do what you say, and hope that this saps the American will to stay in the region, essentially a Vietnam like scenerio. But if this doesn't happen, the Iranians will be crushed.
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John
John@john_bravo6·
@_samwhy @policytensor Even if they occupied the complete Hormuz area, They would be sitting ducks with attacks from the high ground surrounding it. Also it would not stop attacks on shipping with missiles and drones. It would be a disaster.
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ค้นพบ

@teortaxesTex @mormongoblin @Makeshifts98 @captive_dreamer @CoffeewClassics @RachelXReads @goblinodds @policytensor