Embaud

@crux_capital_ @boymanrobshit I agree but on the other hand it’s far from being the craziest valuation in the semis and photonics space. Look at cohr and lite at 300+ fw earnings? Does that make sense either? But they both keep going up….the whole market is a bit insane

@boymanrobshit yes yes i left many of those notes my man! But paying 9x for a 2029 rev? Idkk. I still think its totally possible the stock keeps going up, but it'd be hard for me to be bullish on the way down

$AXTI I listened to the whole call Some Positives: > Significant backlog increase >$100m > Selling globally outside of U.S. > Can sell to U.S. customers based outside of U.S. > Capacity ramp going better/faster than expected > Sees themselves as the strongest in ramping > Locking down raw material supply > Doubling, then doubling again capacity > Direct communication with end customers > China growth is visible and real Some Negatives: > Still doesn't have U.S. permits > Permits are completely out of their control and uncertain > Even at max capacity in a few years, hard to underwrite mkt cap for me (sentiment aside) > Material cost is higher, so price increases are used to offset > Customers are working to lock in as much supply as possible with Axt competitors What are all your thoughts? Bullish, neutral, bearish?

@jukan05 @zephyr_z9 Any concern on these negative MoM for NAND and DRAM modules? Is this due to price or volume? Thank you

Preliminary April Korea semiconductor export figures: * DRAM: $9.25bn (+15% MoM, +83% QoQ) * DRAM modules: $6.14bn (-17% MoM, +70% QoQ) * NAND: $1.67bn (-34% MoM, +17% QoQ) * MCP: $8.16bn (-5% MoM, +67% QoQ) * SSD: $3.84bn (+20% MoM, +181% QoQ)

@TristanMacinnes Going through the transcript there is zero hint/mention of the ceo regarding overvalued stock price. Not saying the value is not crazy but not a ceo on earth would ever publicly admit his company is overvalued

@embgaspbaud Source is their own earnings call 😂

$AXTI is a shitco. The CEO clearly thinks its a joke that the stock price is so high. He knows that most orders will be stuck in limbo waiting to be shipped out. This stock has 0% correlation with actual earnings potential. Five years from now u will look back and see a huge peak in price from 2026 while this stock trade at 6$.

@jukan05 Why is the stock down? Was already priced in? Strike?

🔴 Samsung Electronics (Market Cap: KRW 1,321.3T) 📁 Preliminary Earnings Results Based on Consolidated Financial Statements — Fair Disclosure Apr. 30, 2026, 08:46 (Current price: KRW 226,000, +1.8%) Revenue: KRW 133.8734T (Consensus: KRW 117.4850T, +13.9%) Operating Profit: KRW 57.2328T (Consensus: KRW 38.2309T, +49.7%) Net Income: KRW 47.2253T (Consensus: KRW 31.5201T, +49.8%) * Recent Earnings (Period / Revenue / Operating Profit / Net Income) 1Q26: KRW 133.8734T / KRW 57.2328T / KRW 47.2253T 4Q25: KRW 93.8374T / KRW 20.0737T / KRW 19.6417T 3Q25: KRW 86.0617T / KRW 12.1661T / KRW 12.2257T 2Q25: KRW 74.5663T / KRW 4.6761T / KRW 5.1164T 1Q25: KRW 79.1405T / KRW 6.6853T / KRW 8.2229T - Earnings surprise: +49.7% - Highest operating profit in the past five quarters - Highest operating margin in the past five quarters: 42.8%

@KobeissiLetter Pure bullshit. You cannot seize cryptocurrencies unless the owner surrenders the keys. I doubt Iran has given the US its keys….

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US has seized $450 million in Iranian cryptocurrency.

It was a great Q. Too much info at the same time for the market…Google had already the market favor and Msft was on trial mode….i think Msft still has a perception and story telling issue but at some point numbers will catch up. If they can print a much bigger growth on copilot and slight acceleration on Azure the stock will come back

$msft citing 20m paid copilot users at ~$30/mo, midteen PBP growth, 6% msft365 com seat growth, path to usage rev model, & margin expansion. shouldn’t the value of “the software biz” get a bump? And growing azure 40% w/ allocation issues. I thought this was a good Q for the LT

@BenBajarin Margins are expending—> rev grows faster than depreciation…. But the market is still slow to understand. It will take another 2 quarter befor noone questions capex anymore

Q on the MSFT call. The answer, my friend, is inference margins are VERY good.

@MarkosAAIG @BenBajarin If you look at it from absolute dollars of growth you get Azure +8 Bn, AWS +7Bn , Google +6Bn. Not saying Google is not doing a great job but % growth doesn’t mean the same depending on the base. For now Msft is taking market share

@BenBajarin GCP is insane.

Ok so: AWS - 28% GCP - 63% !!!!!!!! Azure- 40%

@FinnStockinger Very interesting. On the depreciation I think all huperscalers have moved to 6 years and given that V100/200 ate still running i think it’s a very fair assumption

@MarkosAAIG I guess it’s also a question of value extracted by endcustomers from AI. We don’t hear uet enough about it but if demand is so high it means they are getting huge value? So they could be ready to absorb some costs hike from the hyperscalers?

*passing trough costs to customers

Big Tech and my million-dollar question. So guys, before we dive a little bit into the numbers, my million-dollar question for the CapEx raise is: is the CapEx for more growth, or for the same growth and expansion but at higher prices because of supply chain stress? And I think that’s the million-dollar question. So, hypothetical case: if Meta, for example, wants to build out a hypothetical 5 GW and has CapEx planned for that in the $115 to $135 billion area, how much of their guidance — their upward guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion range — is related to higher expenses due to supply chain stress on that 5 gigawatts? Or did 5 gigawatts become 5.5 gigawatts, just to keep it simple? That, for me, is the crucial question I want to hear between the lines in the calls. And you all should watch that. Going into the numbers: cloud accelerated really well. Azure printing steady 40%, Google with a massive beat on 63% cloud revenue growth, and AWS on 28%. Very strong. Industry experts, by the way, think AI adoption at enterprise level is around 7%. Microsoft commented and said its AI business is now at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate, up 123% year over year. Of course, you need the exact definition of “AI business” compared to that 7% enterprise adoption, but still — we are very early innings in the whole AI buildout. Also, OpenAI diversification into Trainium with their 2 gigawatt Amazon commitment is very interesting. And it’s also very meaningful for my HBM thesis, given the 2 gigawatts of Trainium and the implications for HBM3E and HBM4 pull-through for SK hynix and Micron starting in 2027. And that brings us back to the beginning of my post again. The million-dollar question for me is: how much of the CapEx raises are directly tied to supply chain stress and pricing — not only HBM and memory, of course, but much more. Update: I just read that Meta’s CapEx outlook increased to the $125 billion to $145 billion range, reflecting higher component pricing and additional data center costs to support future-year capacity. So my million-dollar question is already partially answered, but we still need more exact breakdowns, because it impacts short-term ROI. Lets see way the calls bring. $MSFT $GOOGL $GOOG $AMZN $META $NVDA $MU

@KookCapitalLLC @HYPEconomist A very honest question: would you sell Sol/Sui/ a few memes at big loss (bought near atm, lesson learned on liquidity exit) and port the proceeds to hype or wait for the next bull run to recover? —> = who has more upside % potential?

@HYPEconomist for some reason everyone in crypto wants to chase a beta instead of buying the obvious winner btc is the best example hype is the second best example

i see a lot of people saying they don’t wanna buy hyperliquid:native because it’s already so big and the upside is capped these are the same people who said the exact same thing about $BTC at $4,000 we’ve never seen hyperliquid go through a euphoria-driven bull run

@absidy1234 @ContrarianCurse Never regret taking profits!

@ContrarianCurse Bought at $20, sold half at $85 🫠

*BLOOM ENERGY 1Q REV. $751.1M, EST. $535.3M *BLOOM ENERGY SEES FY ADJ GROSS MARGIN ABOUT 34%, SAW ABOUT 32% Explosive growth, low capital needed for capacity, AND margins? My my my this is going to be a massive fucking company

@rubicon59 Seriously?

$BE out with great results. But the valuation is silly, and there is still no real earnings 🤷‍♂️

Yes but find it a small retate compared to what we are seeing on speculative no-revenue names in semis or photonics. When a company that is proving to deliver and is becoming the defacto power peovider for DCs brings a deal that is bigger than everything they have sold so far I would expect much more….time will tell but for me it is still massively under-priced

@embgaspbaud They already re-rated ahead of earnings off the back of the news a couple weeks ago

I usually front-run Earnings for specific companies. By placing trades during Earnings szn. (Don't advise this for most of Retail). $BE was one example from earlier today: - $ORCL agreement dropped 2 wks ago - up to 2.8 gw total. A deal bigger than most of $BE's prior annual shipments combined - Pre-Earnings, consensus was still pricing in only ~$500-540M rev + $0.09-0.13 EPS (mid-50s % growth) - But...the product backlog had hit a record ~$6B entering 2026, total pipeline ~$20B, and the $ORCL ramp was going to pull massive Q1 product revenue forward Plus: - Q1 is usually their weakest Q. So any strength in this Earnings would force a re-rate. So it was a pretty easy trade to make imo: - huge $ORCL contract + visible backlog conversion + hyperscaler tailwinds; all hitting at the right time pre-Earnings - also, defo could've entered off the back of the $ORCL news initially (would've had a much better cost basis), but didn't really have $BE as a high priority buy back then Note - this is my first ever $BE entry, and I plan to hold + potentially scale up slowly over time.

@ContrarianCurse It’s so big that one wonders if BE can deliver. 1GW= 1 nuclear reactor. It is estimated that it will require 7300 BE boxes more than their total ib. stock should be through the roof

Oh my

@fundmyfund Wasn’t this necessary after such a run? And won’t the market be like this onwards: run up and big pull back on some negative rumors? ….it’s still a hated rally

Going to be a rough morning for everyone's favorite sectors photonics / semiconductors / data center $GLW $AEHR $ALMU $VSH

@Mr_Derivatives You have it today 😅

If I was a bull in this bull market I want to see a healthy 3 or 4 step forward and 1 step backward. A kinda zig zag way up and to the right building solid bases and foundation at each incremental levels. Right now we are seeing a 10 step forward no step backward in the semis space. Well at least as of yesterday.

@Toronto242M @damnang2 Could be, you never know. MRVL has certainly the upper hand

@embgaspbaud @damnang2 $POET likely spent the weekend trying to salvage the $MRVL deal. When that didn’t happen, they disclosed the loss Monday—nothing unusual there. If the $poet tech is real, $MRVL could still return—possibly on better terms and use the NDA breach as leverage.

3:23 PM, analyzing with optics industry insiders whether it makes sense to re enter $POET.