jsunderulo

@cobie just one question. when did u sell your soul to predict the crash today: x.com/cobie/status/1…

@steipete @affaanmustafa This is now patched as well I believe. Hitting the same Anthropic errors after switchover prompting to turn on extra usage.

@affaanmustafa The verdict on SDK use is still out. I'm not seeing a clear allowed/not allowed here. We have a mode that uses the cli, which is allowed. Just... pi is faster than the other stuff out there.

this is why it's a lot safer and time efficient to build harness optimizers ∨ orchestration systems (conductor, superset, ECC, etc.) than the harness itself there's hundreds of harnesses now i'm not saying you shouldn't try but building a harness from scratch / on pi etc is just not worth it anymore (for most things)

@davidcasem @Saboo_Shubham_ add "openclaw" before the command and you'll get it going

@Saboo_Shubham_ Fake news. Doesn't work.

OpenClaw is 🔥 and Peter is GOAT Send this to your OpenClaw Agent: models auth login --provider anthropic --method cli --set-default This is so much fun!

@SpeculatorArt this makes so much sense i tried using GPT yesterday for trades and basically lost all of them lol

there's so much free money on the table with prediction markets. don't be surprised in 6 months when you see 17 year olds making videos on how they made their first million just arbing across platforms.

Does this look delta neutral to you? No. Because it isn’t. You should never lose money on a delta neutral setup. That’s the whole point - to be neutral. But many so-called “delta neutral” funds lie to you. And they get away with it because… well, it’s crypto. 1/

@DieHardMMAPod Haven't seen that since Max Rohskopf

Props to Allen bettors. He came in on short notice and made a ranked fighter with a full camp quit. Great bet at dog money. Good work.

@DieHardMMAPod Oh my god how did he eat that knee

IT WAS ALWAYS CHARLES JOURDAIN!!!!!!!!!! Charles Jourdain -169 3.38u✅

prediction markets will hit 1 TRILLION in volume by 2035. ppl are vastly underestimating the motion of institutions and somehow plenty will still be caught offguard. @Polymarket @Kalshi @MyriadMarkets - would love to see a market on this.

@DeItaone tf is there left to tighten? everybody on my TL already tight af

DEUTSCHE BANK EXPECTS THE FED TO ANNOUNCE QT’S AT THE END OF DECEMBER FOMC

@Zeneca FIVE phones and I still can't get a call back smh

Are five Ethereum Phones too many?

@0xd1namit @Polymarket Nice, would be cool to see you cover Sharpe ratio as well.

What’s the Kelly strategy and how can it actually help you trade smarter on @Polymarket? A lot of pro traders use it mention in their posts, but I feel like many beginners don’t really get what it means, so let’s break it down real quick The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing strategy created by John Kelly back in 1956 It’s all about risk management, basically helping you figure out what % of your bankroll to throw into a trade based on the odds and your estimated probability of winning Now, let’s talk about the formula (it’s on the image) The letter b always confuses people When we talk about “coefficient 3” it means you bet $5 and get $15 if you’re right But in Kelly, we use net odds, not total payout. So if you bet $5 and win $10 profit, your net odds are 2, not 3 Let’s take a real market example Say the market gives Trump a 40% chance to win the election, but you think the true odds are 50% (you can check the math on the image) According to the Kelly formula, you should bet 16.7% of your bank There are also variations like half Kelly or quarter Kelly, which just means dividing your result by 2 or 4 to play it safer I recommend you to use it to improve your risk management

@jonahlau_ this. literally how i got my foot in the door. just being helpful on Discord and offering good ideas AND a way to implement. can't just be an idea guy with no implementation strategy.

I never applied for a crypto job. I just became useful to communities and the offers came to me. Here's the side door strategy to get hired: Most people enter crypto through the front door, they spam applications to job boards, cold DM founders who ignore them, network at conferences where everyone's selling something. Then wonder why nothing happens. But there is a different path. Back in 2017, I bought into the Monaco ICO (now Crypto​.com). Instead of just holding the token and checking charts, I got curious about how the product would actually work. So I started hanging out in their community subreddit. I was reading user problems, asking questions, getting to know the moderators. My curiosity led to conversations with team members, and their talent team eventually suggested I apply for a product manager role. I did, and I got the job. That's the side door. Instead of fighting with thousands of other applicants, you become the obvious choice because people already know you can deliver. One warning though : actually be helpful. Don't be the guy spamming the team with random ideas thinking that's how you get hired. You should be genuinely curious, solve real problems users are facing and contribute value because you really care, without expecting anything back. Show up with, contribute genuinely, and let the opportunities come to you naturally.

@mert what kinda sentient bio-rockets are you workin with lmao

@JourneyMacro @rektmando not even tryna defend CZ, but in the screenshot he literally says he is NOT aware lol

@rektmando CZ just revealed that his affiliates buy and sell tokens on his exchange to move prices The whole thing is an illusion We're buying worthless tokens in manipulated markets

@probabilitygod nothing more than the art of misdirection

if that guy is really an insider from trump's entourage, then it means that a political announcement will be issued shortly causing a market crash. what could this be? - tariff related (again) (there's a 3% decrease in the polymarket probabilities of us x china tariff agreement) - fed decision related - war related (israel x hamas last minute fall out, israel attacks Iran, US engages in Venezuela, russia escalation) (even though I think these events won't affect the market as much as the prior 2) prediction markets act as the perfect venue for hedging against such situations. insider trading is an inherent characteristic in open information markets (crypto + prediction markets) so the best thing someone can do is try to mitigate the consequences of it. the question is, which markets should someone choose in order to hedge or at least reduce risk effectively? obviously buying random markets isn't that efficient. imo one solution is synthetic products on top of prediction markets offering exposure to semantically similar markets. that's a concept we are currently examining at @vatic_trading more on that soon

“Check the Polymarket” — Tom Brady

@euanker @Polymarket @betmoardotfun killer journey

11 months into my @Polymarket journey, I’ve crossed $200,000 in profit. From traditional gambling to prediction markets, here’s my story so far 👇

You vs the China he told you not to worry about: