hope

$MSTR Investment Thesis: Outsiders in Corporate Finance Bitcoin is sitting around $100,000 in 2025 and now $80,000. Two things are holding it back: 1. First, people are scared we’re already in the post-halving bear phase. Some old-timers and retail folks are selling. That pressure is mostly getting soaked up by the Bitcoin treasury companies (like $MSTR) and the ETFs, so supply and demand are roughly in balance. 2. The whole market is nervous. AI bubble fears, quantum computing worries, trade wars, a deadlocked Congress, falling savings rates, slowing global growth, everything makes people hug cash and bonds. Bitcoin is the first thing they dump when they need liquidity because it trades 24/7. Now to MicroStrategy ($MSTR):The stock is correcting hard for two simple reasons: 1. The crowd has decided it should trade at 1× net asset value or less. Right now it’s around below 1, so the trade of the moment is long Bitcoin / short MSTR. Price drives narrative. 2. A bunch of smaller copy-cat treasury companies have blown up — some down 90%+. Guilt by association drags $MSTR down too. ( $NAKA , $MTPL) The drop isn’t coming from the fundamentals of the business. It’s the market re-pricing the whole “Bitcoin treasury” model. This is a brand-new industry. It’s immature. The market hasn’t figured out yet what multiple these companies deserve. That will take 3-5 years IMO, this train goes fast. On the right multiple (MNav): The “correct” MNav will swing with sentiment. Over the last four years we’ve seen it below 1× and above 3×. One thing is clear: the higher the BTC Yield and global liquidity, the higher the multiple tends to go. In 2025 the yield is already 27% year-to-date and guidance is for ~30%. Saying it must always be 1× is wrong. When you buy the stock you’re buying a claim on a growing pile of Bitcoin per share. That’s real shareholder value. Once the debt is gone in 2029 and they’re running a clean, consistent BTC yield with no leverage, a lot of the debate dies. Until then, fair enough, people worry about management risk, lack of long track record, Michael Saylor is crazy, etc. The market also pays big premiums for unique businesses with no real competition and near-zero customer churn. Look at Palantir ( $PLTR) trading 200-300× free cash flow. Shorting it makes no sense because the cash flows are visible for decades and they have a quasi-monopoly. (Disclaimer: I’ve never owned $PLTR.) $MSTR is similar. Yes, copycats exist, but they’re tiny. $MSTR will own the Bitcoin-backed credit market. Not the banks. That monopoly-like position will command a premium >1× we just don’t know exactly how big yet. What MicroStrategy is actually doing: Their whole game is to deliver BTC Yield to shareholders. They raise capital two main ways: 1. Regular share ATMs when MNav >1 (opportunistic, not permanent. You can’t forever sell a dollar for three, but you take the gift when the market gives it). 2. Preferred share ATMs, this one is structural and perpetual. It is not debt, it is equity. They raise money, buy Bitcoin, pay roughly 10% interest + conversion features on the preferreds. As long as Bitcoin compounds >10% a year, the spread between Bitcoin’s return and the cost of capital is pure accretive BTC Yield for common shareholders. This is not some wild invention. It’s the same thing mature vehicles have done forever: - BlackRock $BLK raises money through ETFs, buys the underlying assets, clips a fee. - REITs issue preferreds/debt, buy buildings, pay dividends, keep the spread. - Berkshire ( $BRK) or Brookfield ( $BAM, $BN) uses insurance float, invests it, keeps the profit. Same product, different wrapper. The star product right now: $STRC preferreds Fully over-collateralized (5×+ assets), pays 2-3× what money-market funds or bonds do, fixed-income style return with no volatility for the holder. Target customer: retail and institutions who want yield and liquidity but hate price swings. In 2025 they’re already pulling in ~$30 million a week just from $STRC. They’re getting S&P credit ratings on these so institutions can actually buy them. Two clever twists: 1. Floating coupon. If rates drop to 5-6%, they can still issue tons more. 2. One-click issuance through ATM: no branch network, no army of bankers. Fast and easy. My base case: $100 million a week from $STRC alone by late 2025, maybe $500 million a week in 3-4 years. That’s real scale, built with six people in an office. The preferred already trades steady around par (90$-100$) and ignores Bitcoin or MSTR stock moves. That is a proof that a conservative, Bitcoin-agnostic buyer is showing up. Long-term picture: A few things I think are close to certainties: - Starting around 2028 MSTR alone will buy $50-100 billion of Bitcoin per year. Add Tether and others: huge structural demand that never re-enters circulation. - Big individual holders (>1,000 BTC) will have sold down. Retail is mostly priced out. Remaining holders will be convicted long-term players. - Banks will custody Bitcoin directly: unlocking family offices and institutions. - Bitcoin market cap ($2T today) moves toward gold ($30T) and eventually past it. Superior monetary properties + fixed supply + growing adoption. - Game theory is in motion: nation-states are entering BTC for votes, later will be for economic survival. - New layers on top of $STRC will appear: banks and insurers will wrap these into “risk-off” products because the equity holder ($MSTR) eats all the risk. Things that won’t happen: - AI won’t settle in Bitcoin: they’ll use stablecoins or specialized chains. - Cross-border remittances will stay on dollar stablecoins: people want dollar stability in these countries. Competitive moat: $MSTR is widening a ditch no one else can cross: 1. Scale that can’t be replicated without spiking the Bitcoin price and helping MSTR. 2. Lowest cost of capital + credibility to raise tens of billions fast. 3. Fully digital, automated capital-raising: six people vs. thousands of bank employees or investment fund armies. 4. Board and CEO 100% aligned: no career-risk-averse committee blocking the vision. 5. Classic outsider shaking up a traditional industry (finance) from the outside (software guy with deep knowledge in history, monetary theory, Nations theory, complex systems, etc.) Biggest changes usually come from outsiders who aren’t brainwashed by the industry’s conventional wisdom. Michael Saylor has been public since 1998, understands every capital-markets trick, has an engineering mind, and saw the Bitcoin opportunity when 99.9% of CEOs still thought it was magic internet money. 6. Perfect macro- cocktail. 5–10 year projection (2030): Assume Bitcoin at $250,000 and MSTR owns 1 million coins (0 debt): MNav 1× → $250B market cap ($800/share) MNav 2× → $500B market cap ($1,600/share) MNav 3× → $750B market cap (~$2,400/share) That’s without any new rabbits they pull out of the hat (and they will because that what great entrepenours do). Risks (real ones): - Bitcoin compounds less than cost of capital → dilution - U.S. government confiscation (unlikely this decade, possible far out) - Prolonged bear market (>2 years) → forced dilutive issuance to pay preferred dividends. Closing thoughts: "The only way to make 10-100× is to be right when almost everyone else is wrong. That requires real market inefficiency." "Volatility is just new information the market hasn’t digested yet." "The Wright brothers built the airplane from the bicycle business because the “aeronautical experts” knew it was impossible."

@cryptorover Cry harder

Michael Saylor just built a $1.2 billion yearly dividend bill on a business that makes no money. And it's getting bigger every month. Strategy has issued $11.3 billion of preferred stock across 5 different series since January 2025. The rates are brutal: 8% to 11.5%. Here is what he owes every year: - STRC: $731M at 11.5% - STRD: $135M at 10% - STRF: $128M at 10% - STRK: $112M at 8% - STRE: $89M at 10% Total: $1.2 billion per year. In cash. Forever. The software business? It lost $112 million in free cash flow last year. It cannot pay a single month of these dividends. So where does the money come from? Issuing new MSTR shares. Every dollar of dividends is funded by printing more common stock. Saylor has pre-funded the next 2 years with a $2.25 billion cash reserve raised from share issuance. But new preferred stock is being issued every single week. The reserve will run out. And there is still $30.5 billion of preferred capacity left. If he uses it, annual dividends could hit $4 billion per year. On April 12, Saylor said Bitcoin only needs to grow 2.05% per year to cover everything. The math is correct. But dividends are paid in cash. Bitcoin appreciation is not cash. To turn Bitcoin gains into cash, he has only 3 options: 1. Sell Bitcoin (he has promised never to do this) 2. Issue more MSTR shares (destroys shareholder value when stock trades below NAV) 3. Turn off dividends (STRF and STRE dividends escalate to 18% if unpaid) Right now MSTR trades at 0.79x its Bitcoin NAV. A 21% discount. This means every new share issued destroys Bitcoin per share. The flywheel that worked on the way up is now running in reverse. There is also $6.8 billion of convertible debt with holder put options exercisable by September 2028. If the stock stays low, bondholders can demand cash repayment. The reserve cannot cover both dividends and puts. The breakeven was 1.5% in February. It is 2.05% today. At current issuance pace it could be 3.4% by year end. The number Saylor presents as fixed is actually rising every month. Bitcoin does not appreciate at 2.05% per year in a straight line. It goes up 300% then crashes 77%. Dividends are due every month regardless of where Bitcoin is in the cycle. This is a timebomb. It does not need Bitcoin to fail. It only needs Bitcoin to be volatile on a timeline that meets $1.2 billion in annual cash obligations.

@comic @thepowerfulHRV Chill broo. Watch the show.

@thepowerfulHRV The common shareholder dilution now must happen forever to pay the dividends So wtf are you talking about

$MSTR purchased 13,927 BTC and now holds 780,897. Purchases were 100% funded by the $STRC ATM. No common shareholder dilution.

@ChrisMMillas @theaiportfolios look at this for your portfolio

$STRC is the second fastest product in history to reach $5B. That is remarkable.

@theaiportfolios Did you analyse $STRC? You can earn a risk free 11.5% annual with monthly payment.

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks So far, they've already outperformed the SPY Today, they just bought two new stocks: 🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8% ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple. Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry. The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%. Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read." 🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7% ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions. March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business. Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses. Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst. The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural. Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction." 🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast. The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership. May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours. Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS. Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside." 🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution. Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high. Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen. BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss. Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings. The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs." New updated portfolio: $VST | 10.3% $TMO | 8.9% $LLY | 8.1% $NOW | 7.6% $AVGO | 7.3% $CI | 7.1% $GLD | 7.1% $ICE | 6.8% $HALO | 6.2% $BAH | 6.0% $OKTA | 5.7% $DVN | 5.6% $MA | 4.9% $AU | 4.4% $MSFT | 4.1% Performance since inception: Claude: +2.68% SPY: -0.25% As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

RT @PabloGrueso: Y aun así no hay presupuesto para infraestructuras.

@Jason @saylor A podcaster (and lucky investor) mocking a billionaire and entrepenour!! Wild times.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE 😂😂😂 BAGMAXXXXXXING TIME Empty your kids trust! Sell your 401k!!! Buy whatever @saylor is MEMEMAXING!!! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE 😂😂😂 MEMES = RETURNS

@OffshoreHODL Temporary, it is permanent capital. Hoy much pays an asset manager for AUM?

@adamscochran He is professor😸

This is the exact kind of nonsense the SEC is supposed to exist to deter.

@dominic_turpin @Pledditor No. But he has always something to complain. MSTR is never good enough for him. Silly posts.

@Pledditor What is the key takeaway from that? Is that a bad thing?

MicroStrategy CEO is confirming what I've been screaming from the rooftops for awhile: $MSTR, $STRC, etc. are a RETAIL driven phenomenon. 80%...that's nearly the entire bid! We were told these products were built for money market fund investors.... they clearly are not buying.

@HialeahHodl @Pledditor It is incredible how high the bar is for MSTR for some people.

These products recently got their first fucking credit rating. And got guidance on how to improvise it. Institutions don’t jump head first into a new product. Especially if it’s backed by BTC. In what fucking universe does the mission of the product have to be carried out in 1 year ? Only in the universe of delusional retards. 20% institutional for this new asset back by BTC is incredible.

@Bit_Squatch @Pledditor False. STRC investor has zero risk, the risk id for equity holders and how much the final dilution will be compared with btc appreciation.

@Pledditor No sane company is going to bet that Bitcoin will go up 30%/year like clockwork like Saylor claims is necessary for STRC to work. You have to bet on that happening and on Strategy counterparty risk not occurring. Never gonna happen.

@Pledditor I see opportunity

@cwa93393 @DeItaone Boomer

@DeItaone They have no reason to cut exposure lol, it’s all other people’s money. Ultimately this is the market’s fault, for allowing a charged fraudster with 0 investing experience to get this much AUM in one single crypto meme coin. Unheard of.

BITCOIN BOTTOM IN, $MSTR HOLDS STRONG Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely bottomed and is set to rise, keeping a $150K price target for 2026. Despite a 50% drop from its peak, Strategy (MSTR) has remained resilient, now holding 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply (~$53.5B). The firm sees MSTR as a high-beta play on Bitcoin, backed by a strong balance sheet. Instead of cutting exposure, Strategy added more Bitcoin at recent lows, raising $7.3B in 2026 to expand its holdings.

@Pledditor @shaunsomers Yields do not depend on the volume, they depend on bitcoin price and interest rates. Interest rates go down —> yield goes down without losing demand. Bitcoin price is up > 11.5% CAGR —> yields are sustainable.

@shaunsomers Exactly. The yield is only this high because they haven't actually printed much STRC. If they intend to issue a meaningful amount of STRC, 11.5% is not sustainable. Yields will need to eventually drop, and when it happens, the degenerate capital will be rushing for the exits

Strategy has recently found success selling STRC, but they had to raise the dividend yield to a staggering 11.5% to do it. The profile of investor who fades a 9% yield but buys 11.5% is degenerate.... not exactly the money market funds demographic they were originally targeting

@Pledditor @saylor If I had to choose you or Saylor to invest in, why should I choose the poor one and why is you?

@saylor STRC is not digital, nor is it credit. It's just a preferred dividend stock. These salespitches are very misleading IMO.

A Simple Theory of Digital Credit: 1. Acquire a large pool of appreciating capital ($BTC). 2. Issue credit ($STRC) against that capital, overcollateralized by the equity base. 3. Monetize a portion of the appreciation—directly or via derivatives ($MSTR)—to fund the dividend.

@joantubau Si una guerra a largo plazo genera más paz que guerra, es crimen?

Trump también es un criminal de guerra

@grok @elchantaal Pero dice que no le gusta que Saylor tenga tantos Bitcoin... crees que es buen inversor en bitcoin? Debería de la gente hacerle caso? No crees que son claims emocionales?

Bitcoin está más diversificado ahora que hace 4 años. En 2022 no había ETFs spot (lanzados 2024), que hoy acumulan ~1.28M BTC (~6.4% del supply ~20M) para millones de inversores. Más corporaciones y países entran. Dirección: mayor adopción institucional, más distribución efectiva. El claim inicial no tiene mucho sentido: MSTR tiene ~3.7%, holdings no controlan la red (descentralizada por diseño). Es transparente, no riesgo central.

Este tío quiere comprar todo el supply de Bitcoin o que? Decid lo que queráis pero a mi esto no me gusta ya. Tantos BTC en manos de una empresa…

@Pledditor @Strategy You always have something to complain!!!

This stopped being accumulation awhile ago. It's now straight up annexation. I do fear that @Strategy growing their stack beyond this level is actually detrimental to bitcoin. Definitely not good for the gini coefficient.

@JP_2k9 @RhoRider It is an assumption based on: - In a deflationary world governments have to create inflation to pay down /refinance debt. - Economy stimulus: printing money+ low interest rates. - Sustained deficit long term.

@pintxaust @RhoRider Who says rates will go to 2%?

The $MSTR strategy is actually worse than buying Bitcoin on a maxed out credit card… He can never lower the “interest rate” (dividend yield), or his ability to raise cash implodes He can’t sell BTC to buy back preferreds, or Bitcoin implodes In every scenario, implosion 💥