Statmospheric

@iCyclone @iCyclone looks like a surge of around 2-3 m occured

Looks like Learmonth radar got knocked out. Here's final full frame from 4:39 am, showing #Cyclone #NARELLE's eyewall squarely over Exmouth (pink star) & approaching Learmonth (blue star). Winds at Learmonth continued to increase, reaching 75 knots gusting to 104. (Americans: Keep in mind, this is 10-min sustained wind—likely equivalent to 1-min sustained wind of ~85 knots.) Exmouth, which is further N & more exposed than Learmonth—& which got deeper into cyclone—has likely had stronger winds.

@iCyclone Already a 52 kt wind gust at learmonth airport, just down the coast from exmouth

Powerful #Cyclone #NARELLE (Cat 4) is closing in on #Australia's North West Cape. Huge eye & fat core mean a wide wind field—meaning destructive winds are already hammering coastal communities. Exmouth (on the Cape) will take a direct hit overnight.

@Drewshearer444 @Maj_hmd1 And I would think flash flooding a considerably more dangerous threat than severe

@Maj_hmd1 I would personally think the war is a considerably more dangerous factor than the weather, but this is certainly not something that needed to be added on top of that.

1/ I haven't posted much about the potential severe weather setup in the Middle East. Still, I ask everyone to exercise caution when forecasting for regions you're not familiar with. While the ingredients may seem present, what works for a region differs considerably...

@cljack @e____e_e____e In my experience, "it's super unlikely to happen", doesn't really work on kids under the age of 10 😄

@e____e_e____e We’re trying to do damage control 😂

Oh no. My intellectual and low-emotion kid has alerted my anxious and sensitive kid to the existence of the Yellowstone Supervolcano

@beatmastermatt It has been for years, just not using that particular term. If I don't get my way in a given election cycle I can just call myself silent majority, and deny the value of diverse thinking. Of course our current echo chambers have destroyed pluralism anyway

I predict the next thing reactionaries will all unite to attack is pluralism. They still won't be able to define it, but they'll attack it just the same.

@drewdyck Someone should do a study, I guarantee desk standers get promoted at a higher rate than the rest of us plebs

One thing I didn't anticipate about the standing desk ... Even after a few hours of standing you get this delicious sense of moral superiority toward all the lazy sitting-desk people. Not to be rude but how do you live with yourselves??

@webberweather I kinda feel like the SPC categories system needs to be scrapped. Stick with intensity potential and probability of each. Don't release the maps to the public, but make the forecasts region by region.

Idk who needs to hear this but, how you message/“sell” your forecast is arguably more important than how your forecast actually verifies. If mets like myself, let alone the public can’t fully understand it, then clearly you’re doing it wrong.

@RaleighWx Seems like the models missed the trough staying flatter/more progressive, you can see the front now starting to rip in Eastern NC, about 100 miles east of where expected. Tornado threat was always more conditional, but the wind threat busted for this reason

Looks like this will be a bust for most spots in NC. Still a risk for I-95 E esp NE NC/SE Va The convection/rain around this morning really capped the instability for central NC/RDU These setups are often fragile/tricky like this One reason I prefer winter/tropical forecasting 😁

@SCweather_wx Since when do they issue 20z updated to the 4+ day outlooks?

Ight.

@weathermandave_ @NWSRaleigh The really shocking part is it's been over 10 years since the probability based 4-8 day outlooks were implemented .feels like a couple years ago

This is the first D4 30% for the @NWSRaleigh forecast area in almost 10 years Holy Toledo

@Mighty__Muffins In NC: March 15 2025 was the last 30%, in Virginia March 1st 2017

Whoa.....that's rare. IDK when the last time I can remember seeing a Day 4 risk of 30% for the Mid-Atlantic and the are basically highlighting wind and tornadoes. I wonder if we event get the derecho risk for that too. It's so robust on models.

@gpackiam The story of Mary and Martha illustrates this point as well. Rest can be as much pleasing to God as work, especially of the sort that is centered on sitting at the feet of Jesus and taking in his wisdom

OK, I’ll bite: Saying that pastors need a sabbatical because their work is uniquely challenging is like saying OT Israel needed sabbath because their life was uniquely difficult. You’re missing the point. Sabbaths and sabbaticals are not rewards. They are not an escape for the exhausted. They are signposts of creation and salvation. They are means of beyond ourselves to the God who created, sustains, and redeems all things. Churches give their pastors sabbaticals as a sign to the world of what it looks like to work from a place of rest, free from the slavery to production and performance. For what it’s worth, I don’t think pastors have it rougher than teachers or entrepreneurs or stay at home parents. And the mental health of CEOs and business owners is far worse than that of pastors. That is why some in the business world are practicing radical rest and recreation. In other words, they’re catching on to the wisdom of God even while some theobros eschew it.

@TimBuckleyWX @WFMY The sharpest drop among the top 10 as well!

7th largest 24 hour temperature drop of all time in Greensboro. At 2pm it was 40 degrees compared to 84 degrees at 2pm yesterday. This is our biggest temperature drop in 30 years, and just 5 degrees off the all-time record. #ncwx @WFMY

@ekyamdrakon @richvillodas Sure, that is the problem of religion. The practice of Faith is a different matter entirely.

@richvillodas Unfortunately, that's the problem of religion, isn't it? You always have to trust someone else because it's never God saying but someone saying what God says (including the authors of the Bible).

Just because someone preaches from the word of God, doesn’t mean that word is from God. In a time when government officials are openly quoting scripture to justify violence and war, we need discernment.

@IMAO_ Ah, easy mistake. They must have meant the city was "centimated"

Some dummy said a city was "decimated," but the city had 1000 buildings, and only 97 were destroyed.

@TimBuckleyWX It's not the only model showing snow. Rare setup in that the cold air runs out in front of the moisture, plus the crazy amounts of lift may pull down the cold air aloft. Even so, I would expect the cold air to lag a bit as you well know.

A timeline for Thursday. Cold air arrives, then rounds of rain - heavy at times, with falling temperatures. Rain primarily from 7am to 2pm. No, I don't really buy our model when it shows afternoon snowflakes.

@DerwinLGray Using Christ's name and authority to justify actions that are diametrically opposed to Christ in his Character and commands is exactly what we are warned the antichrist(s) will do

Distorted end-times theology can become dangerous. When our view of the future is shaped more by fear, speculation, or tribalism than by the character of Jesus, we can start justifying actions that look nothing like Christ.

@JJ_McCullough People were kinda obsessed with the UK in the 2010s as an honorable mention. I would say Japan though

I'm going to South Korea tomorrow, which I am excited about. South Korea seems like the trendy country of the 2020s, in terms of how much it's captured the world's imagination. What was the "it" country of the 2010s? The United Arab Emirates?

@MikeCosper How much of this describes your average Evangelical though vs the chronically online? Is this what face to face discourse actually looks like? Genuinely not sure

One of the fascinating elements of the political moment is the "woke policing" of right wing evangelicals. You're out of the camp if you talk about racism. You're out of the camp if you criticize unconstitutional policies. You're out of the camp if you oppose almost anything the administration does. But if you have weird or obscure theological views, if you have ahistorical views of the founding, if you have bizarre ideas about the sacraments or the trinity, if you have views of manhood / womanhood that would have been unrecognizable to the early church, if you have racist or antisemitic views, if you are willing to excuse tribal allies who have demonstrably lacked character in the public sphere — NONE of that matters, so long as you stick with the tribe on whatever the executive order or Truth Social post or talking point of the day is. The reaction to the Piper post, which was literally a scripture verse and a rather mild explanation of it, is a perfect example. And it's one of dozens I can think of. This posture is poison, and it will rot the right from the inside out. Their only saving grace is that the left is just as captive to populism and tribalism as the right, and it's been out-of-touch enough and destructive enough to give the administration oxygen — as we saw the SOTU.

@iCyclone Now that you have had some time to process, how do you feel the wind intensity compared to Dorian subjectively on the ground?

The NHC released its *official* report on #Hurricane #MELISSA. This incredible storm now sits at the very top of Atlantic hurricane history: * Peak intensity was bumped up to 165 knots, tying it with ALLEN 1980 for highest wind speed in Atlantic hurricane database. * Landfall intensity in #Jamaica was kept at 160 knots, tying it with Labor Day 1935 (Florida) & DORIAN 2019 (Bahamas) for strongest landfall in Atlantic basin. Penetrating this hurricane's eye & witnessing—feeling—its jaw-dropping power is something I'll never forget till the day I die. It was unlike any cyclone I've survived. I'm proud to have provided data, observations, damage surveys, & imagery to help this postanalysis.