Stocks DD

@smallcapharma 2026-rev $10m? Burn $90m 2028-rev $35m? Burn $90m

The "Zero Revenue" Fallacy (Gross Burn vs. Net Burn) It is claimed that the expected cash burn is $20M per quarter ($80M annualized). As a gross expense, that is actually a very accurate estimate for running a 60-person sales force and corporate operations. However, it is assumed that Net Burn = Gross Burn. That is only true if revenue is zero. Because $MIST has unlocked 100 million covered lives via Express Scripts, revenue is absolutely not zero. Let's use a highly conservative launch model: If $MIST only captures 1% of the 600,000 Express Scripts PSVT patients in the near term (6,000 patients), at 6 scripts a year and an $800 net price, that generates roughly $28.8 million in annual revenue. That $28.8 million instantly drops the annual cash burn from $80M down to ~$50M. As market share grows, the net burn shrinks to zero, and the company flips to profitability. The argument below is ignoring the entire right side of the income statement.

@smallcapharma I didn't say they are not getting cash for warrants? It's still bad as they're getting it at those SP. Btw the expected cash burn per Q is $20m for next few quarters & this excludes p3 trial cost for atril fib ($50m ?)...So those warrants are a big drag for share value imo.

1- WARRANTS The biggest mistake the market makes is assuming that 60 million warrants simply dilutes the share price to zero. These warrants are not free shares; they have strict strike prices. If the 30M Series A warrants are exercised at $1.50, the warrant holders must physically wire Milestone $45 million in cash. If the 30M Series B warrants are exercised at $1.87, they must wire another $56.1 million in cash. Yes, the share count goes up, but Milestone’s treasury instantly grows by over $100 million. When you factor in the ~$200 million in pro forma cash they already hold, a fully-diluted $MIST would be sitting on a massive cash war chest. Because Enterprise Value (EV) subtracts cash, the actual underlying valuation of the commercial business remains incredibly cheap. 2- WOULD IT CAUSE IMMEDIATE SELL-OFF? an institution isn't exercising a warrant just to break even on the strike price. To generate a true, reportable yield for their fund, the underlying stock price must exceed: Warrant Strike Price + Initial Warrant Premium + Time Cost of Capital. 3- ATM Regarding the ~25M shares left on the ATM: an ATM is just an open line of credit, not a mandatory sell order. Management already executed their capital raise and built a $200 million runway to fund the Express Scripts launch. Oliveto has zero financial need to tap an ATM while the stock is heavily depressed at these levels. Management typically saves the ATM for when the stock violently re-rates on a major catalyst (like the upcoming DoD formulary vote or a CVS/OptumRx contract), allowing them to raise capital at $4.00 or $5.00 by selling very few shares.

@_Biotech_iQ @smallcapharma @AlphaTalon2025 @Ssunten_ 1) if u factor in those potential new shares...you're looking close to 200m shares. So all the analyst PT using old share count(115m shares) is unreliable 2) it's possible that warrant holders, exercise and hold shares long term which may not add selling pressure short term

$MIST As a long-term investor rather than a short-term trader, I care more about the overall cap structure and valuation. With full conversion of all CSEs, including the warrants you mentioned, by my calculation, the pro forma FDEV is still sub-$100M. To me, that's cheap. Of course, it's also true that the warrant overhang may deter some investors who are more focused on short-term momentum, which could be a headwind to the actual share price. Short answer, I don't see the warrants as a problem over the long-term, but they could lead to near-term headwinds as short-term investors focus on dilution rather than valuation.

IMPORTANCE OF THE NEEDHAM PRESENTATION $MIST is at the Needham Healthcare Conference next week to pivot the narrative from "clinical cash-burn" to "commercial revenue engine." Institutions buy based on the 1-on-1s. Watch for major accumulation as the Express Scripts data gets shared behind closed doors. The stock may skyrocket further following the $MIST Needham presentation on April 13th🚀 investors.milestonepharma.com/news-releases/…

@WestlakeEquit @richtrades100 @firebutworking 20m shares short. 18% short interest. 5.77 days to cover In biotech, catalyst based investing is super risky with short term price manipulation by big whales....better to invest for long haul in good, under valued business $aqst

@richtrades100 @firebutworking stock is up LOL

$AQST This is the messiest, subjective CRL defence I've seen lol. Looking forward to official FDA notes sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

@BIOTECHSCANNER posted EVERYDAY long , bullish $aqst essays here for several months & was very sure FDA will approve anaphylm . Here we go CRL issued. Never read post from this guy again

@SmallCapKing2 Short sellers get it right most of the time. How did they see this ? $AQST x.com/stocksdd/statu…

FYI, for all the $AQST cheerleaders who took personal shots at me for defending my investment in $SPRY while arguing the negative aspects of $AQST, for the betterment of everyone's research, why not own up with similarly shallow shots at yourself?

@AlpBugraBasat Check $RARE earnings record since inception in 2010 and tell us their business record. I would value it based on liquidation value of its drugs+pipeline-liabilities.

I think the current price action is overkill for $RARE but reasonable for $MREO. They have around $600M in revenue and a $2.2B market cap. Even with typical private equity tricks (well, shelving programs and lay offs), this could easily be a cash cow.

@avidresearch @jfais20 @lfholt Imo,$RARE shud trade based on liquidation value of all its current & pipeline drugs minus liab. Current mgmt & board while good at bringing rare (very high priced) drugs to mkt, but still have consistently(10+ yrs) failed to make it a viable business. $4+b in acum deficit

@jfais20 @lfholt $RARE GTX-102 for Angelman is their biggest pipeline bet post Setrusumab failure. Its an ASO and not an AAV

$RARE- "If I put my JF hat on" ... Like the way this was phrased @lfholt 👍 Agree weakness could continue during the current reset (no credit given to the gene therapies until improved, reimbursement in place and + launch metrics) Also need to see improvements in burn rate

@pick1998_2 OI has collagen defect. So increasing BMD, isn't building normal bones.so strength of those bones is uncertain.Alvelostat-ceo had an opportunity to partner & start p3 after OI IA2 failure, but instd put all eggs in setru waiting for p3.Partnershiptalks for 3 years!

$MREO down 90%, and $RARE down 40%. Brutal when pivotal trials fail. Can anyone explain why bone density goes up, but clinical fracture stays the same? How much value left in $MREO (Alvelestat for AATD-lung disease)?

@Sanctuary_Bio You would think by now the original shareholders be all wiped out & ALL of the original management & Board replaced. But NO. Its due to ws analysts & their PT's, it continues to trade with positive m.cap & same management & Board! Capitalism at its finest.

Btw...if there was an award for perpetually bad CEO Kakkis would take it. $RARE He's never bad enough to win worst CEO of the year but he's just consistency awful. $4.4B in accumulated deficit. Yikes. Will it ever end?

@FeldtInvesting Big lessons: 1. Never trust anything other than a double blinded placebo controlled data. That p2 study !! 2. Never trust if management is promotional ($RARE)

$MREO Well, at least I can finally sell all the shares. I have cursed these behavioral endpoints from the day one and it was brutally shown here now. Taking a loss and moving on. Thanks for all the long timers, keep your head high.

@BIOTECHSCANNER If you or others are looking for a stock price POP upon FDA approval, I would be very careful because as you correctly said SHORTS can easily control short term price movements & they're 20% of the float & usually they trade in huge blocks on "event days" to move price

$AQST - The worst argument on commercial potential of Anaphylm: Anaphylm’s “competition is entrenched.” What this manipulative short is saying doctors will do what they always have done. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be in the industry for 18 amazing years. How do you think Zepbound and Mounjaro are taking market shares away from a household name in Ozempic and Wegovy in the GLP-1 market? Why? Because Mounjaro and Zepbound are better drugs. Physicians switch their prescription writing habits to better drugs. They are highly educated and understand how drugs work. Let me give you a more relevant example: In Q3, Neffy generated $31M in sales. Why? Because Neffy is better than other epinephrine devices because it’s needle free. This is a no brainer for physicians to switch to. Neffy has less than 5% of the epinephrine market. So this isn’t entrenched. However, what you see here again is physicians CHANGE their habits to use a more convenient epinephrine device. The same thing will happen when Anaphylm gets on the market. Again, these random manipulators wanting shares to remain low so they can buy more or if they are shorting, they don’t want a run up to approval and running even more after approval. They are also saying sell the news on approval. What they don’t want you to know is there are massive catalysts coming after approval as well such as partnerships or buyout possibilities. I always have to use RAID before big catalysts. Who remembers the FUD about Q3 earnings for $IOVA? They were predicting doom and gloom. What about interim NSCLC data? They predicted that it would be bad. Oh, here’s one: $IOVA would get a CRL for Amtagvi on PDUFA when I said the data was too good. I DESTROY SHORTS AND MANIPULATOR FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH, DINNER, and dispose them on a “regular” basis. Shorts are rich in fiber 😂. That’s the only thing they are good for. Don’t fall for their desperate lies. Science is on our side. External survey conducted by an expert analyst in the epinephrine market found that 90% of epinephrine prescriptions will be needle free in the near future. EpiPen is entrenched and this survey shows it means NOTHING. Aquestive did 2 surveys: 1. Asking 35 healthcare professionals in the allergy community to choose between Neffy and Anaphylm. 33 chose the film. One chose Neffy and the other didn’t have a preference. This is deadly to $SPRY and Neffy. 2. Asking patients who were in the trials to choose between auto injectables, Neffy, and Anaphylm. Guess what? Anaphylm won by a landslide. The results from the surveys above are the reason that one of the management members from $SPRY sold every share he owned. After that, they filed an expensive citizen petition trying to delay the inevitable- Approval of Anaphylm. Since you have been with me and $AQST on this journey, you don’t need the surveys. I have told you that physicians, patients, caregivers, and the market would choose Anaphylm. The only thing that is entrenched is that these manipulative shorts are entrenched in their parents’ basement. Stay strong 🐉🐉🐉

@BIOTECHSCANNER If you are a LONG term believer in $AQST & you think it's oral film will cannibalize & grow the market(2024-$1.1b) leaps & bounds... by all means buy it at $720m market cap & just hold it. What is the need to post an essay on X EVERYDAY for last several months ? Cont'd 1 of 2

Have no position in $AQST at this time. But I stand by what I said before. Don't underestimate short sellers. $MIST short interest went up significantly months before PDUFA date & then it traded down with >10x volume upon FDA approval. Do your own DD. This is NOT any advice

In Dec short interest went up further to 21.99m shares or 20.6% of the float. $720m valuation is too high even after approval. 2024 US market for epinepherine $1.1b & has entrenched competition . $AQST Check what happened to $MIST share price after fda approval

@meremrtl @RoamingCapital "short term pdufa action catalyst trade" doesn't work if valuation is already high or commercialization path isn't straightforward. Retail traders end up selling for loss. Possible hedgies short-sell more upon approval to drive down price but in due course will cover for profit

@stocksdd @RoamingCapital Huh?

$MIST $AQST a lot of retail buy into FDA approval catalyst trade & get burnt. Not every stock will move after approval. Look at valuation, commercialization risk. Some hedge funds are likely playing this trade. $AQST with its $700m mcap has 19% short interest

@richtrades100 @RoamingCapital Well, they're gonna incur significant launch costs ....what really matters if the drug can carve a niche in the out-patient setting & docs can get comfortable to prescribe it ..& real world data

@stocksdd @RoamingCapital Are you factoring in the upcoming 75mil from RTW?

@RoamingCapital @meremrtl u look at $AQST and $MIST short interest spike a month or 2 before approval, & then in case of $MIST stock price goes down on vol(>10x avg vol)to create fear in retail(who expect +ve catalyst to take share price up)& then sell into lower price as shorts cover for profit

@stocksdd What’s your view on $mist now that it’s a bit lower?