0xTrinity.eth

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade This market has 4% rewards so the APY is actually higher

I made a trade that Putin will remain in power until EOY. By buying shares at 88c, I’ll get about 17% APY or $584. He’s not planning to join Ali Khamenei, right?

@spacexbt You can bet on it being Polymarket here: predict.fun/market/main-ta…

The Polymarket theory for Zach's investigation makes a lot of sense think about zach's wording: "multiple employees abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period" now imagine what info employees actually have access to: resolution criteria, market maker positioning, liquidity data, user flow this platform has been a magnet for suspicious wins > someone banking $1M on google search predictions > a trader hitting 17/20 super bowl halftime bets > $30k turning into $400k on a maduro capture people getting literally arrested for using classified military intel to trade on the platform every single one of those got dismissed as: "that's just how prediction markets work" and maybe some of them are legitimate, but when you add it up this "pattern" looks less like luck and more like a platform where information asymmetry feels more odd from time to time another uncomfortable question you could ask: if random users can exploit inside knowledge this consistently on polymarket, what could employees do? they have access to everything, i'm talking about: > resolution timing > order flow > market parameters what's extremely suspicious, is that polymarket immediately launched a betting market on which company zach is investigating people are asking to add "polymarket" itself as an option, yet they didn't add it (?!) zach already went after them recently over the fake logan paul super bowl bet, so it wouldn't surprise me if he dig deeper into poly

@tsybka @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade The market doesn't need senate approval to resolve to Warsh, it just needs Trump to officially nominate him to the senate, rather than just a truth social post.

I placed a $160k bet at 97c that Judy Shelton will not be nominated as Fed Chair. Is this a +EV bet, or am I going to get cooked? Kevin Warsh still needs Senate approval - that’s the only reason the market hasn’t resolved yet.

The four year cycle bros can’t keep getting away with it

@EuropeElects @atlas_intel @andrei__roman Is this poll real? I can't see it on your website.

Romania, AtlasIntel poll: Bucharest mayoral election Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+4) Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+5) Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 23% (+2) Drulă (USR-RE): 17% (-3) Ciceală (SENS→Greens/EFA): 9% (+1) Gheorghe (DREPT→RE): 1% (-2) Burcea (POT-*): 0% (-1) +/- vs. 03-14 November 2025 Fieldwork: 27-30 November 2025 Sample size: 2,964 ➤ europeelects.eu/romania

@HCLPokerShow @nikairball @senortilt Is this being streamed live, or was the match played already and this will be a recording?

TOMORROW!! 💵 MILLION DOLLAR MARATHON 💵 @nikairball & @senortilt go toe to toe youtube.com/live/TXh6GMszv…

@j0hnwang For almost anything outside of US sports, Kalshi has much worse liquidity. Consider e.g the megaeth valuation markets, something I'm actively trading right now. Polymarket is literally more than a thousand times more liquid.

kalshi exclusive advantages: - parlays - broker infrastructure - native yield - mobile app - deepest liquidity - 3x more markets - contracts are literally legal commitments - less resolution disputes - better apis - no wash trading oh yeah also onchain on solana now with jupiter

@lukecannon727 @Cbb0fe Probably means he didn't get an allo.

Uh I think @Cbb0fe may have gotten filled but accidentally cancelled his bid The full amount was refunded to his wallet this morning

@profitbelowzero @smartestmoney You can make that bet here: polymarket.com/event/hyperliq…

@smartestmoney will bet you any $ amount that there’s no hyperliquid s3 season that ends this month

Sorry for the interruption, folks, but I always do the last dance of the season. This year somebody told me not to. So I'm gonna do my kind of dancin' with a great partner, who's not only a terrific dancer, but somebody... who's taught me... that there are people willing to stand up for other people no matter what it costs them. Somebody who's taught me about the kind of person I wanna be. ~Miss Frances Houseman.

Finally, if you don't want to sweat this risk and instead want to buy some cheap upside, there's another trade you could do: -Buy Democratic Sweep for 18%, Buy Democrats in NJ for 17%. You net pay 1% and get paid if any of the other 3 events happen (compared to their market probabilities of 3%, 5% and 7%!)

Still, if the market odds are to be believed, the odds of 2 of these events happening, let alone 4, is very low. So this should be a +EV bet if our assumptions are reasonable!

🧵November 4th will have a lot of elections this year in the USA. How am I positioning for this? I have a few speculative bets on some riskier matchups which I may post about later, but for now I'll reveal an interesting spread trade that I am looking at.