Ryan

A Saudi X account reportedly posted a specific threat targeting the Motiva refinery in Port Arthur—just one hour before the explosion at the nearby Valero facility in the same city. What’s even more alarming? The account immediately deleted the post—along with all 4,739 previous tweets—right after the incident.

🚨So fear is gonna cause the pain the market was hoping to avoid. I was looking at quarterly expiration on $SPY, the smart money is paying extortionist rates for crash insurance. People are paying 'Category 5 Hurricane' prices for flood insurance." They don’t believe the market is real. The set themselves a gamma trap trying to protect themselves. It can be a vicious domino effect. Dealer sold a TON of puts. If SPY drops even 1%, dealers who sold those puts are short g amma. They have to sell futures to hedge. That selling drives the price down further, forcing them to sell more. The market is currently terrified of a specific type of the gamma trap. the smile is effectively a vertical wall on the downside. The market is pricing puts with the assumption that if SPY drops 5%, volatility will instantly skyrocket. Downside protection is mathematically the most expensive it gets relative to ATM options. The market is coiled and bracing for impact. Do not buy straight Puts here. You are paying a premium that assumes the world is ending. Do not sell naked volatility like an iron condor.

$SPY - Happy Quad witching to those who celebrate. What jumps out most is how concentrated the downside flow risk is below here on an OPEX session. Normally you might expect more balanced pinning around the main strike, (660 is clear pivot) but its a much cleaner split at 660. Today might feel calm near 660, but if the market loses the lower shelf, the move could become much more one-sided than a typical expiration day.

"Massive investment in AI contributed basically zero to US economic growth last year," per Goldman Sachs

🚨 Let me tell you why this Goldman Sachs headline is the most dangerous one you'll read today.. Companies spent $450 billion on AI last year.. fired tens of thousands of people to "restructure around AI".. replaced entire departments with chatbots.. And Goldman Sachs just said it contributed basically zero to economic growth.. so where did the money go? > It went to Nvidia.. $130 billion in GPU sales.. Jensen is the only man on earth who got rich from AI that hasn't produced anything yet.. > It went to stock buybacks.. companies fired people, cut costs, reported "record profits" and bought back their own shares.. the money went UP not OUT.. Jesus! > It went to a bubble.. the same way crypto money went to Lamborghinis and not infrastructure.. AI money is going to valuations and not productivity.. here's the part that should terrify you.. They already fired the people.. Atlassian 1,600.. Meta 21,000.. Block 40%.. Amazon warehouses.. the jobs are already gone.. But the growth didn't come.. the productivity didn't come.. the revenue didn't come.. they burned the village to build a city that doesn't exist yet.. and Goldman Sachs just looked at the empty lot and said "there's nothing here"

$TLT One last chance before lift-off. Longest base in history...

I traded through every one of these & Jason is correct. 💯