ebipere

Chinese Energy Infrastructure Growth - the crazy numbers are yet to come. This energy transition is different on two levels that compound each other: what energy physically is, and how it gets financed. The physical difference is categorical. It is an exergy transition - like going from biological food to chemical fuels energy systems. There will be order of magnitude changes in energy efficiency” as we are changing the engine this time and not just the fuel. Coal→ Oil→ Gas is combustion optimisation better fuels. Solar and wind no wasteful conversion, the entropy profile changes fundamentally. This is the EMBER point – the quality of end energy availability is two-to-threefold. The equivalent to moving from horses to engines for mechanical work The financing difference is underappreciated: the unit price of energy generation will collapse and quantities consumed will balloon. Think about the marginal calorie in a hunting society vs farming society. Hunting is opex/ income statement. Farming is capex/ balance sheet. So is electrotech. As the world replaces hydrocarbons with electrotech, the entire structure of both the physics and the financing of energy changes. China understood this and responded with industrial policy: build the manufacturing, drop the cost, build more – rinse and repeat. Tariffs are the subscription world defending itself against the capex world. China's grid will continue to grow even as it decelerates on a percentage basis, because that is what the cost structure of constructing it requires. The real bizarre numbers are still coming. China may still drift towards ZIRP. End energy availability will rise; marginal energy cost will collapse. We are going from hunting on horseback to farming with machines simultaneously in a single transition We grew agriculture to feed ourselves and our animals. The machines that cheap abundant energy will feed do not exist yet because the energy that would make them possible doesn't exist yet either.

Chinese Energy Infrastructure Growth - the crazy numbers are yet to come. This energy transition is different on two levels that compound each other: what energy physically is, and how it gets financed. The physical difference is categorical. It is an exergy transition - like going from biological food to chemical fuels energy systems. There will be order of magnitude changes in energy efficiency” as we are changing the engine this time and not just the fuel. Coal→ Oil→ Gas is combustion optimisation better fuels. Solar and wind no wasteful conversion, the entropy profile changes fundamentally. This is the EMBER point – the quality of end energy availability is two-to-threefold. The equivalent to moving from horses to engines for mechanical work The financing difference is underappreciated: the unit price of energy generation will collapse and quantities consumed will balloon. Think about the marginal calorie in a hunting society vs farming society. Hunting is opex/ income statement. Farming is capex/ balance sheet. So is electrotech. As the world replaces hydrocarbons with electrotech, the entire structure of both the physics and the financing of energy changes. China understood this and responded with industrial policy: build the manufacturing, drop the cost, build more – rinse and repeat. Tariffs are the subscription world defending itself against the capex world. China's grid will continue to grow even as it decelerates on a percentage basis, because that is what the cost structure of constructing it requires. The real bizarre numbers are still coming. China may still drift towards ZIRP. End energy availability will rise; marginal energy cost will collapse. We are going from hunting on horseback to farming with machines simultaneously in a single transition We grew agriculture to feed ourselves and our animals. The machines that cheap abundant energy will feed do not exist yet because the energy that would make them possible doesn't exist yet either.

BREAKING: Iran rejects today's Axios report claiming a US-Iran deal or MOU has been reached, saying "Axios is fake news" and Iran "will not sign any agreement that does not align with our interests," explicitly rejecting the current deal terms. Iran also does not accept the proposed 60 day ceasefire extension due to continued violations of it and will "respond to any further violation of the ceasefire," per two members inside the negotiations. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has also not approved or agreed to the proposed agreement and terms.

Having lived in China 20+ years and watched them gain competence and then utter domination over so many aspects of tech, design, entertainment, finance, etc - and then look at how poorly they manage external perceptions (call it PR or propaganda or whatever)... And you realize they aren't even trying to convince the world outside of how great things are here. Meanwhile the US dedicates 1.3 BILLION USD to convincing people how terrible China is? All I know is it's going to be a very rude awakening for a lot of people when the curtains finally open.