Ouch

612 posts

Ouch

Ouch

@OuchFive

disliker of populism.

شامل ہوئے Şubat 2026
381 فالونگ21 فالوورز
Ouch
Ouch@OuchFive·
@Jay644172819317 @LinkofSunshine His demos are higher propensity - Hasidic Jews, older voters. Low turnout means disproportionately fewer younger voters which are more likely to vote for Valdez
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Jay
Jay@Jay644172819317·
@OuchFive @LinkofSunshine How is low turnout better for Reynoso? Its noise, we don’t know who it hurts vs helps.
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Basil🧡
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine·
Predictions: NY-06 Meng+35 NY-07 Valdez+8 NY-10 Lander+25 NY-12 Lasher+3 NY-13 Espaillat+2 Don’t judge me too bad! Polling has been non existent.
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@dontsippy @michaellange If he’s going to play journalist he should just have a basic disclosure in his about page w a short sentence about his direct DSA involvement. Or include it in the articles. It’s not complicated
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Ouch@OuchFive·
regular reminder that @MichaelLange is not an unbiased political journalist, despite presenting as one. He's an active DSA operative & propagandist. He doesn't disclose this anywhere in his writing. Not even on the about page. He wasn't serendipitously in the location that Mamdani happened to walk by, it was coordinated.
Michael Lange@MichaelLangeNYC

The Commie Corridor greets Mayor Zohran Mamdani A young woman ran out for a picture, only to exclaim “oh no, I left my phone at the bar!”

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Ouch@OuchFive·
@83beals damn am I the internet loon or is that you
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@cobb_dem @LinkofSunshine where are you sourcing that it picked up over the past few days? There was a pickup in overall turnout today but the last source on age-breakdown data was the gothamist article that had data through day 4.
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blueshift
blueshift@cobb_dem·
@LinkofSunshine @OuchFive youth turnout has not been great although it did pick up over the past few days and will probably also on Eday so we’ll see
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@LinkofSunshine my take is that was a very different race than these primaries, but we'll see.
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Basil🧡
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine·
@OuchFive Mamdani won by 45 points in the primary though
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Michael Lange
Michael Lange@MichaelLangeNYC·
According to my analysis of Early Voting data, the NY-7 electorate has trended younger for seven straight days, an encouraging sign for Claire Valdez as we enter the homestretch. Today's voting patterns, from an age perspective, resembled the Mamdani electorate of 2025.
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@admcrlsn @MichaelLangeNYC today spiked up but still running low in NY7. McCarren pollsite in north williamsburg was dead today. Possible the turnout uptick in brooklyn was mostly caused by NY10... or Satmar hasidim getting their votes in before Shabbat.
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Adam Carlson
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn·
Turnout has been even lower in NY-07 (though @MichaelLangeNYC suggests it’s starting to pick up) which is maybe why you’re seeing this. Could be a “let’s leave it all out there on the field and take no chances” situation or an “oh fuck we gotta wake these people up” type deal.
Michael Lange@MichaelLangeNYC

Turn the volume up

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Adam Carlson
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn·
In Manhattan — the only borough where every resident lives in a district with a competitive primary — early voting turnout declined from: 76% of 2025’s Day 1 turnout ⬇️ 55% of 2025’s cumulative turnout through Day 6 There was a slight rebound today — and maybe it’ll tick up over the weekend — but this doesn’t look like it’s gonna be a “reshape the electorate” type of cycle
Adam Carlson tweet media
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn

Some speculated that the events of the weekend (Knicks game, Puerto Rican Day Parade, Brooklyn Pride, etc.) would dampen turnout. But, at least in Manhattan, cumulative 2026 turnout (as a share of 2025 turnout on the same day of early voting) has been creeping *down* since then.

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Michael Lange
Michael Lange@MichaelLangeNYC·
The Commie Corridor greets Mayor Zohran Mamdani A young woman ran out for a picture, only to exclaim “oh no, I left my phone at the bar!”
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@jacobfhsmith As a reynoso supporter I agree. Her assembly tenure is fair game but a lot of millennials struggling with limited career options. That’s the DSA base
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@JohnMChell As a Reynoso supporter I think it’s fine to attack Claire’s lack of accomplishments in the Assembly once she became a public figure. I don’t think it’s right to attack her prior work experience. a lot of millennials struggling with limited career options. That’s the DSA base
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John M Chell
John M Chell@JohnMChell·
Hey NYC District 7, let's analyze Claire Valdez's résumé. Does it rise to the level of a seat in the United States Congress? -Taco Bell -Trader Joe's -Pizza Hut -Failed artist -Organizer Obviously not. I rest my case. Let's end this charade of a failed socialist on Tuesday. In the meantime, when they knock on your door over the next few days, don't answer it. If you do, respectfully say, "Not interested in your ideology." @NydiaVelazquez VOTE NO @claireforny VOTE Yes @ReynosoBrooklyn
Claire Valdez@claireforny

Beautiful morning in Sunnyside.

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Galindo Democrat
Galindo Democrat@gsgd02996576·
To the degenerate gamblers out there, an easy way to make money is to bet against whatever this guy thinks will happen, I don’t think he’s been right on any race he’s commented.
Justin Allen@JAllen_NYC

@RossBarkan Espaillat seems ahead and I think Reynoso is closing better. That rally got drowned out by the Knick parade news.

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Ouch
Ouch@OuchFive·
the stress of the close #NY07 race is causing some Claire Valdez supporters to take the mask off.
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@Chytilova1 @Mountain_Twhick Under 20 turnout is pretty weak actually. A lot of the 25-34 is actually young hasidic jews in south williamsburg who are turnout out for Reynoso in huge numbers. It's very close. Much closer than most expected.
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Chytilova
Chytilova@Chytilova1·
@Mountain_Twhick Pretty sure I saw data that the age group that has voted the most in NY-07 during early voting are people in their 20s. Pretty sure she is cruising to victory with those demographics. It could change but it actually looks better for Valdez right now.
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Ouch
Ouch@OuchFive·
.@proudjewboy respect. Showing the power of the bloc here.
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Ouch@OuchFive·
@JeremiahDJohns @nyeditboard No idea why she would agree to do this interview at the worst possible time. Her campaign had to realize it would go terribly
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Ouch@OuchFive·
DSA Groundwork caucus operative Michael Lange made a pained acknowledgement that #NY07 is not going the way he expected.
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