Three Four BioPharma

@_The_Prophet__ I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. You help give valuable context in real time.

⚡️Qatar is telling Iran the hedging phase is over. That is the real signal. Qatar has spent years surviving by balancing. Keep the Americans close. Keep channels open to everyone else. Stay useful to every side and owned by none. Expelling Iranian military and security personnel means that model just failed under pressure. Once Ras Laffan gets touched, quiet coexistence stops looking like sophistication and starts looking like exposure. That is why this matters. Ras Laffan is one of the core gas nodes of the world. If Iran hit the energy spine and Qatar responded by throwing out Iranian security officials, then the conflict just moved one layer deeper. It is no longer only strikes, ships, and headlines. It is now about whether the Gulf states still believe Iran can remain inside the old tolerated-threat box. And deep down, the answer is starting to become no. Military and security attachés are part of the hidden machinery that lets enemies manage contact without saying so publicly. Expelling them means one of the pressure valves is being shut. It is a diplomatic downgrade, an intelligence downgrade, and a trust collapse in one move. Qatar would be saying that Iranian presence inside Doha is no longer something to manage. It is something to purge. That is a bigger shift than people think. Qatar is usually one of the softer nodes in the Gulf map. It mediates. It hedges. It buys room. If even Qatar is hardening, then the center of gravity in the Gulf is moving further against Iran. Fewer gray zones. Less balancing. Less room for clever ambiguity. More explicit alignment around protecting the artery and the energy base. That means the war is hardening into state-system consolidation. The real truth is simple: If this is real, Qatar just moved from hedging around Iran to hardening against it. That is a serious escalation.

@ochocinco That’s hilarious. Big fan Ocho.

Yes, I’m normally the father.

@JimFergusonUK @jam_croissant

🚨 JAPAN CALLS FOR AMERICA TO SHOW ITS HAND Tokyo has just sent a message straight into Washington’s inbox: Stand firm. Stand openly. Stand now. Prime Minister Takaichi didn’t mumble. She said plainly what others only whisper— that Taiwan must be defended, and that China’s intimidation has crossed the line. Now Tokyo wants the world to know whether America truly means what it says. Japan is not asking for speeches. It is asking for visible commitment—public, unmistakable, undeniable support. Because deterrence doesn’t work in half-measures. When Japan moves electronic-warfare units near Taiwan… When China lights up Japanese aircraft with radar locks… When fighter jets scramble over disputed waters… Silence becomes weakness. This moment will tell us something critical— whether the U.S.–Japan alliance is real leadership… or just polite wording in communiqués. For everyone watching: If Washington steps forward decisively, it will stabilize the region. If Washington hesitates, Beijing will read it as permission. Japan has shown courage. Now America must match it.

@JDVance Says the guy who gerrymandered his name.

The gerrymander in California is outrageous. Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state. How can this possibly be allowed?

@passedpawn Great breakdown

Passed Pawn's Perspective 1. Today's inflation report wasn't as scary as some expected. However, if you look under the hood you can see the beginnings of tariff related inflation in some goods categories. I expect the impact of tariffs to broaden and grow in the coming months. 2. That said, I'm not too worried about a rapid increase in overall inflation rates. But that's different from acknowledging that three years of progress toward the target may be ending, and markets have to come to terms with that reality. 3. Tariff Man may actually be the best hope against a scenario where inflation becomes more like 3%+ for an extended period. With July's tax receipts humming, the consumer is both able to pay more and expecting higher prices, given how long we've lived with above target inflation rates. 4. Speaking of inflation, it's really the only insurmountable risk the US admin faces from an economics standpoint. The deficit and debt concerns may lead to endless trolling but they are not limiting factors. High inflation is. So if I were them I wouldn't be cavalier about it, like 'running it hot' and calling for massive rate cuts. 5. Bond yields have been rising all month with the 30y above 5% again today. Markets are pricing in more inflation risk premium and higher NGDP, which is logical given #4. This also explains why equities have done ok with higher discount rates. Portfolios are rightfully questioning the value of long duration bonds as a diversifier. 6. On that point, at higher rates bonds become an even better hedge against economic downturns and in theory more valuable in a portfolio. But increasing volatility and poor trailing returns make them less attractive. A bit of a paradox. 7. As rates have continued to rise, I took profits on my dollar shorts on Sunday. It's been a great run, but I have low conviction in the short term with bond market dynamics and crowded positioning. It remains a decent environment for equities, although complacency seems high which gives me pause. 8. Crypto has been on a tear, and continued to establish itself as a useful fiat debasement trade, along with maintaining tech beta as NDX kept making ATHs. The endless BTC and ETH treasury companies are a strong source of demand, although I don't know how good I feel about them in the long run. 9. I'll conclude with a consistent theme. Why are we talking about Fed easing? Once again, they will disappoint the rate cut begoooors this month. Given everything I've outlined above, we really need to see some bad data to warrant a serious discussion about cutting. That data may come, and if it does I'll change my view, not before. Still in summer mode, not online as much. Have a great week. -PP

@unusual_whales He (or Don Jr) made over $2B on the Newsmax pump and dump + the post election crypto scam. DJT doing just fine.

Donald Trump on the market reaction today: "It is what was expected. It was a sick patient. It went through an operation. But the operation is over. And now we let it settle in" He added "I haven't checked my 401K". For reference, the Nasdaq had its largest point drop in history today, and worst day since Covid.

@MatthewCappucci I can confirm. Wind is intensifying here at the Main Lodge in Mammoth. Periods of near white out conditions becoming more frequent since about 2 pm. I don’t think the heaviest snow has arrived yet.

The Sierra Nevada is facing an extreme blizzard tonight. They can expect: • 8 to 12 feet of snow in highest peaks • possible thundersnow • snowfall rates 2-4+ inches per hour • 60-100 mph wind gusts • visibilities < 0.1 miles Derails: washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/0…

@AdamSandler Amazing guy. Lived life to the fullest in the ocean and in the mountains. Horrible loss. Peace and love to his family

@Michigandolf @k3ithmccullough @Mayhem4Markets @DoubleWideCap VIX acting unusual in the morning. Was that a tell? I got caught a little offsides

@NorthmanTrader You nailed this move perfectly. And with a quiet confidence. Respect.

@KT_So_It_Goes I will miss your commentary. Funny and on point. I’ve quoted you many times to friends and family.

@CAVU4ever @marktakesphoto I saw one eat a small shark (12-14”) near Del Mar CA

@marktakesphoto Terrific video! Doesn’t surprise me - I watched a cormorant fight and eventually swallow a large eel. Eel wrapped itself around the cormorant’s neck and body while one end was in the cormorant’s mouth…battle royale, and the cormorant eventually won.

Have you ever seen a cormorant eat a large mouth bass?

@ByCharlotteFinn “And that’s why I’m so f#%king confused”

@NoonSixCap Relatable

@FreightAlley Why aren’t shipping and container co’s getting crushed? Still up big over the past 3-4 years. I don’t follow this space. Any insights appreciated.

@stoolpresidente This is the worst thing a President has done….probably ever.

The fact that this isn’t photoshopped is surreal.

@michaeljburry Scary anecdotal correlation tweet. You’re better than this. You haven’t done anything wrong. Your positions are backed by extensive research.

@TahirFarooq1989 @ReutersAsia Like Russia with Ukraine?

@ReutersAsia Taliban asked women to wear Hijab which is common in Muslim world nothing new. Certain countries want to impose their ideology on others,i think certain countries should respect other's sovereignty and right of self determination.

G7 tell Taliban: Stop restricting women's rights reut.rs/3Lcx5mS

Let’s cut the bullshit and have some real goddamn adult conversation: Who’s your favorite college mascot? I’ll start with my alma mater and this sweet bastard.

@OnlyWhiteLines @AdamMancini4 ….or concern for the bears

@AdamMancini4 $VIX holding above 30 is also a concern for the bulls

Very choppy/random "pre-earnings" trading continues in #ES_F with 12+ 1hr candles overlapping. Battle for 4200 is on & this is *critical* trendline support from Feb & March lows 4250-60 remains target with 4285 a little above. If bears to see another leg down, needs to be there