Hinonator
6.3K posts
Hinonator
@hinonator
Ex-stock broker, like value stock , like shorting scam and High flying pig, hate greedy managment
Drummondville, Québec شامل ہوئے Eylül 2019
277 فالونگ220 فالوورز
@hinonator Thanks. Easy to ride when dealers are short gamma . that flow amplifies the move on the way down. $COIN flipped below 145.39 and just kept feeding the puts. Beta 3.32, it never gives you a boring day.
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@barometerca Bond market doesnt seem to believe inflation... or is it à flight to safety... something wrong ?
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The second wave of inflation is clearly upon us.
It will be up to Kevin Warsh to back up his words about reduced risk of inflation with evidence
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.4% in May, the highest level since October 2023. This was the 63rd consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. "We've missed for 5 years. And we're gonna fix that." - Kevin Warsh last week
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@DoomerTard @traderhc Yep , he will certainly try , and since cash market is priced higher you can buy wti on paper and selling it at hihher price on the market
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@hinonator @traderhc While he might you assume he can keep it together for 4 more months with spr draining....
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Everyone's calling the $TLT rip a Fed pivot. It's not.
Bonds ripped +1.41% on the second straight housing miss, but breakevens are dead flat at 2.18% and real yields are still +2.23%. That's recession hedging, not cut front-running.
Here's the mechanic. TLT dealers are long gamma, flip at $87, call wall $88. Price sits just inside the positive zone, so $88 is a magnet into PCE.
But $87 is the trapdoor. A hot Core PCE Thursday knocks it through the flip, dealers stop absorbing and start amplifying.
I think TLT pins 87-88 into the print, then the binary picks the direction.
Pivot or recession hedge. Which side are you on?
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@traderhc I m on the side that Bessent is doing all he can to lower yield , to help with refinancing debt maturities, at the same time when oil going down it help the Fed to fuel the bull market by lowering rate expectation or let the market think that it could come later this year…
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@rickjeff78 At some point the oil trade will explode in his face, and the more we are closer to the mid term the more Iran will play this card
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You can always tell what Trump is panicked about. Easiest guy to read at the poker table.
They expected dumping 10m barrels of SPR a week would push oil much lower than $70/barrel to push CPI down for rate cuts but it hasn't happened. They were hoping to throttle back the draws to make it last until November.
He is totally screwed. I would take pleasure in it but the American people are even more screwed.
America's greatest mistake in her 250 years is electing this lifetime con man.
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@AndreasSteno Not really.. $AXTI $NVTS $AAOI $LITE, $PLTR
These things are 30, 40, 50% off their highs.. and of course you have $OKLO, $SMR $NNE
And of course $SMCI and $CRWV
You have to tactically short this trash, cover, reshort..etc
Eventually you hit it for the 50% drop
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The mean-reversion brigade keeps getting annihilated
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@TheShortBear Still short mstr… almost cover this week , but strong us dollar help me…
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Some of the best trades right now are linked to perps and futures data.
Funding today on $BTC was crashing to negative after weeks of positive, while the open interest skyrocketed.
Tons of players shorting huge amounts for the breakdown.
Now add to this $MSTR down for 7 days, down 2x $BTC and triggering SSR and you have a trade.
I do believe likeliest path is lower towards the 48-52k range, that said the flows today were in full panic and filled with eager shorts that were easy to push back out.
$MSTR trade there, only trade with $SPCX short on top day within past period. Been sitting on hands mostly for past period as I did not want to be long or short AI (on the short there were a few spots in May).
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Gold got smoked into Thursday's PCE and the tape is screaming deflation.
Look closer. It's a lie.
$GLD dumped to 1.6% off its 52-week low, yet the 10Y FELL 6bps and the dollar barely moved.
Lower yields and a quiet dollar should LIFT gold. It sold off anyway.
That's a positioning de-gross, not a rate repricing. Same mechanical flush we got June 5 and May 15.
And the options tape disagrees with the panic. Net call premium getting bought, dealers short gamma below $366.
Hold that line into a soft Core PCE and the snapback runs $372-378 this week as dealers chase it back up.
I'd rather buy this dip than fade it. What's your read?
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@NuggetCapital Agree so much on this...but for them saying if you haven't sold you don't lose , it's help justifying the mistake they made when the stock go south
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PRO TIP: IF YOUR PORTFOLIO MANAGER MAKES A COMMITTMENT TO NEVER SELL A STOCK, JUST REPLACE HIM OR HER OR THEY WITH A PASSIVELY MANAGED ETF. YOU WILL PROBABLY PAY LESS FEES AND PROBABLY HAVE BETTER PERFORMANCE.
Vancouver Island Guy 🌊@VanIsleInvestor
$T.to Telus Another Ryan Bushell appearance on BNN and another recommendation to buy Telus today even if the dividend is cut in the future.. Telus just reached a 52 week low today Another of these 3 telco stocks was recommended twice by BNN investors based on a future catalyst I believe was sports based...
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TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T STICK TO AGREEMENT, I WILL DO WHAT I HAVE TO DO
TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T BEHAVE, I WILL DO WHAT I NEED TO DO
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@RealRickRule They socialize de lost and privatize when they make a gain... that's were Canada is going ... the Elbow up help taking more money in your pockets
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the market has an answer. No subsidies, for anyone, ever.
If the developer wants to move the property, lower the price.
If the bank forecloses, they lower the price, and liquidate.
Are lower shelter prices ( affordability) a bad thing?
wealthmoose@wealthmoose
Mark Carney; Prime Minister of Canada 🇨🇦 "...developers are stuck. They don't want to sell at a loss. They can't afford to hold those empty units indefinitely." He’s sounding more like a real estate agent ..🧐🤨
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@Ross__Hendricks @StanphylCap That's the main point and at the same time market would go lower
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@StanphylCap Probably true but something tells me Trump's delicate ego can't handle being blamed for a global recession
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My prediction (maybe worth less than what I'm charging for it):
Iran WAY overplayed its hand even for President TACO, who will soon renew the blockade & POSSIBLY bomb its oil industry into oblivion. Why not? He's now a lame duck who has lost control of even a REPUBLICAN Congress
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TRUMP: WE DIDN’T MEET OUT OF DESPERATION, IRAN DID. THEY ARE FINISHED! WE’LL PLAY OUT THE 60 DAYS. THEY GET NO MONEY, NOT TEN CENTS!
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@DanielArenson @RealRickRule Yep lot's of people still in love with Elbow up Mike 🤮
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@RealRickRule Once again, Canadians getting what they voted for good and hard. They seem to enjoy it.
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And I thought the decline in US dollar purchasing power was bad!
Marc Nixon@MarcNixon24
Canada's Genius Economist Math Magician managed to PLUNGE the Canadian Dollar to the Lowest Level in 25 years outside of Justin Trudeau Resigning Dip Let the ECONOMIST COOK
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@RealRickRule And people in Québec and Canada keep speaking about the dire situation of USA... economic lesson in college should be mandatory...
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