MemeGa
50 posts


US And Iran Nearing A Peace Deal Around G7 Meeting Next Week; Could Be Signed In Geneva #OOTT
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🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.
The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%
Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.
Right now, all four are present at the same time.
1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.
2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.
3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.
4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.
Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.
But here's the part nobody talks about
While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.
– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low
The last time this happened?
December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.
Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.
What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months
The setup today
Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.
The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.
Quality stocks aren't out of style.
They're being orphaned.
That's when generational positions are built.
The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.
History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

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@FirstSquawk @GavMcCracken Call options on what? Be more precise with these bait headlines
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JPM: Another beneficiary of the AI cycle is European luxury stocks
The report argues that the AI supercycle has driven a surge in HBM and memory demand, sharply improving earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. This, in turn, has supported equity-market strength, with the KOSPI up 91% year-to-date, bolstering consumer sentiment and high-end consumption.
While Korean households’ allocation to equities, bonds, and funds is only around 4%, lower than in the U.S. or Western Europe, the magnitude of the market rally means the wealth effect is still meaningful. JPM also estimates that the after-tax bonus pools at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix alone could reach roughly $25 billion in 2026 and more than $35 billion in 2027.
JPM expects this wealth effect to be particularly concentrated among younger male consumers. Given that roughly two-thirds of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix employees are male, the categories most likely to benefit first are luxury cars, watches, high-end ready-to-wear, and outerwear. Leather goods and jewelry, which are more female-oriented categories, could also benefit, but more through gifting demand than direct consumption.

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@firstadopter Do you have a positive or negative opinion on those 3 stocks?
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Leo's Situational Awareness 13F is out. Ruh roh for $COHR $LITE and $TSEM whalewisdom.com/filer/situatio…
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Fed seen cutting rates within three months, Piper Sandler's Kantrowitz says— @CNBC interview @seekingalpha

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To answer that question.
I’ll just float some historical data out there with laser chokepoints:
$LITE went from $3B -> $15B -> $80B in 2 years from 2024.
$AAOI went from $770M -> $15B in 1 year from 2025.
$SIVE is $1.6B today in 2026.
There’s not many in the world and lasers are the absolute center of photonics.
Each owned a specific chokepoint from optical architectural shifts.
$LITE for EML.
$AAOI for cw 800g/1.6T pluggable
and now $SIVE for cw CPO.

Nathan@nathanshipley_
@aleabitoreddit So is $SIVE the best play for CPO
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Random CPO related names I like:
- $SIVE
- Foci (3363)
- $TSEM
- Browave (3163)
- PCL (4977)
- $AXTI
- Msscorps (6830)
- $IQE
- Shunsin (6451)
- Furukawa Electric (5801)
- $MTSI
- Nextronics (8417)
- $LITE
- $COHR
- FitTech (6706)
- $GFS
- $ASX
- LandMark (3081)
- $SOI
Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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@abcampbell Thankfully you only need to pay 40 vol
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The situation with oil is worse than you think.
The oil wells of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are not like a garden hose. They are mature, low-pressure reservoirs that require precise gas injection to maintain flow. Once that flow stops, water encroachment -- what engineers call water coning -- traps oil behind barriers of saltwater that are nearly impossible to reverse. Worse, paraffin waxes and asphaltenes precipitate inside the wellbore tubing, clogging the rock pores with solid deposits.
This is not theory; it is basic petroleum physics. The recent Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gas field -- the largest in the world -- caused a lasting shock to the entire regional energy system. When the field was hit, the pressure dropped across hundreds of wells. Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, those wells will never produce at their former rates without expensive re-drilling that takes years. The same applies to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, which was struck by Iranian missiles in retaliation. These are not temporary shutdowns; they are permanent fractures in the energy backbone of civilization.
Industry studies show that even short shutdowns of five days to a few weeks cause flow rate losses of 20-30%. The wells in Kuwait never fully recovered after the Desert Storm fires, and that was with only a few months of disruption. Now we are looking at months of no production, with many fields flaring gas instead of exporting it.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has already removed a significant share of global energy, and rising energy costs are triggering cascading impacts across industries, including food and transportation. Every day the strait remains closed, the invisible tax on global oil supply grows larger -- not just from lost barrels, but from the permanent impairment of the reservoirs themselves. The world could lose 4 to 6 million barrels per day of capacity even after the strait reopens, and that means higher prices for years.
Read the full article here:
No Way Out: Why Permanent Damage to Persian Gulf Oil Wells Begins Now
naturalnews.com/2026-04-28-per…
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Horror in Dubai.
A 24 year old American female airline worker in Dubai has been arrested.
Dubai police installed a surveillance tool on her phone.
Without her consent.
They found her sharing an image of a burning building with her mother.
So they set a trap.
They pretended to be her office staff and called her in for a meeting yesterday.
When she arrived, she was arrested.
2 years in jail.
That spying tool is installed on every foreigner's device in Dubai.
That means the Dubai Police are watching everything foreigners send to their families.
Every message. Every photo. Every video.
Including the most intimate moments.
Dubai has denied her a lawyer.
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Iran is likely to deploy human shields to its bridges and power plants tonight. The use of civilians as human shields is banned under the Geneva Conventions (article 51).
Masoud Pezeshkian@drpezeshkian
بیش از ۱۴ میلیون ایرانی غیور تا این لحظه اعلام آمادگی کردهاند جان خود را برای دفاع از ایران فدا کنند. من نیز جانفدای ایران بودهام، هستم و خواهم بود. #جان_فدا
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