Purnachandran Nair
10K posts

Purnachandran Nair
@purnacool
World Affairs | Geopolitics | Foodie | Procurement, Planning & Contracts - O&G |Maths/Machines/Movies/Money/Mallu/Mumbai Indians/MBA; views expressed are my own
Mumbai Tham gia Mayıs 2009
896 Đang theo dõi455 Người theo dõi

India is exploring additional ways for Russia to utilize its accumulated rupee reserves bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@TheMindScourge What makes you think Iran has such weak chess game? Why do you think they got really close with China years ago?
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Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once
No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for
The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US
Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded.
Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used
Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again
Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.
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@Suzierizzo1 DJT needs to give Leavitt a proper break atleast post partum lest we could see a full blown cat fight on live TV between her and Kaitlan.
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@unusual_whales We move from Texas oil bros vs NY Wall Street last week to NY Wall Street Vs Tech bros California
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@AdamJSchwarz @Iyervval What makes you think he hadn’t run this prior with his team? Things are not that impromptu. There’s always some briefing.
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@mrk202123 @HustleBitch_ Daaaymnn TIL of her pregnancy. So we all are living in Leavitt’s timeline
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@HustleBitch_ I see someone who is 7 months pregnant and has the unfortunate job of speaking with members of the press 24/7.. and of those members, roughly 95% appear to be insufferable retards with their own biased narratives presented as “journalism.”
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@DayTradeDiane @DeItaone I will only believe when he rings my doorbell, give a firm handshake and personally deliver the news
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@purnacool @TheBigGeek I see no problem in Pune. Most book on line after 25 days and get home delivery in the next 2 to 3 days. And you want me to believe some foreign news reports. So funny.
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@RahulChels Unka toh bus excess parked fund accounts effect hoga yahan toh direct nuking of savings account
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@darshanvmehta1 One more minister would be there. You know v well.
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I don't think people understand how different the implications of striking an oil field are versus striking an oil refinery
Shekhar Dutt@DuttShekhar
World’s biggest gas field (South Pars, Iran) has just been bombed by US-Israel Iran is now vowing revenge This is pure madness This is designed global mayhem This is planned crippling of so many households This is definitely NOT about Iran anymore
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@ShubhAgrawal26 People were anyway hating on Andheri and now with war and tanking of stocks people will be hating on mutual funds too.
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And you mean they are hiring actors and studio location to shoot scenes of people waiting desperately for gas supplies?
Way to any solution is to acknowledge the problem first. Govt is not at fault or any mismanagement (as causes of disruption are beyond our control) but real ground problem has to be acknowledged with real statistics.
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@purnacool @TheBigGeek Only agenda of DW, BBC and France 24 is to show india and hindus in poor light. It's been happening for a century. There are enough idiots in India to believe them.
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@pachaspaise @TheBigGeek Bro our nation is too vast. If you and I have no issue that doesn’t mean people have it smooth sailing for them with their cooking gas supplies. Only residents of a chawl with no lpg cylinder would know the daily ordeals.
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I won’t rule out Isolation and self sufficiency strategy of USA before hurriedly agreeing with Israel to start the operation. Infact any model would have computed the economic worse case scenario of blockade of Hormuz on USA and found it negligible (barring the higher order effects that’s about to show up outside any prediction model). But most of this is also retrospective connecting of dots. One big Assumption is that when finally USA gets to open the strait when it feels like it after waiting it out, it can use all its might to push through the strait. Na ah. This is Asia. Asian gulf. They won’t let any westerners to interfere from now on.
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Let's unpack this..
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
Ezra A. Cohen@EzraACohen
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