Ace-K
4.9K posts

Ace-K
@ATwinEarth
toujours gai is my motto toujours gai
Portland, ME Beigetreten Haziran 2024
109 Folgt51 Follower

@PstafarianPrice Within a week, you would be mostly tick, by body weight.
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I like the idea of a meadow lawn but I fear it would give me every single tick disease
seraphina@hearthkeeping
i am becoming an anarchist because my city ordinances won’t let me have a meadow lawn.
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@ATwinEarth @JustAFamilyMan_ "They'll answer the correct answer" durrrr
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@1butlerianjihad @JustAFamilyMan_ Is it possible that the independents voted Trump because they already consider us too far left.
A big majority of people polled said Kamala was too far left; much bigger than the percentage who said the opposite about Trump
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@ATwinEarth @JustAFamilyMan_ Ok so what’s your move? You should be less concerned about the left not voting and more concerned about the independents who voted Trump due to your ineffective corporate centrism. You may get those voters back for 2028 but will lose them again come 2030
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@d78930305 @JustAFamilyMan_ Some do one, and some do the other. They get you both coming and going. 😕
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@ATwinEarth @JustAFamilyMan_ ...so you're complaining that the left runs Democratic candidates but also simultaneously doesn't vote for Democrats? Did you think about whether this makes sense at all before posting?
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@1butlerianjihad @JustAFamilyMan_ Right. Because as you and your friends acknowledge, it is a TWO party system
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@ATwinEarth @JustAFamilyMan_ The funniest part is if we do vote 3rd party you’ll still bitch and moan when you lose to MAGA again
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@dmesg @StatisticUrban “Things that win votes in Ohio lose votes in Georgia”
This is, to a very large extent, not true. States tend to swing all in the same direction. There is some wiggle room, but generally speaking, if you’re more popular here, you’re more popular there
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@ATwinEarth @StatisticUrban But voters don't work like that. Things that win votes in Ohio lose votes in Georgia (for example).
I think the base problem here is that the "closeness" of a Presidential election is not well-defined, so for anybody's pet definition some metric is best.
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@Eithin5141951 @JustAFamilyMan_ Well then, go out and vote at random. Take a walk, get some fresh air, maybe have some ice cream afterwards; make a day of it!
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@ATwinEarth @JustAFamilyMan_ And then you will complain loudly when people don't vote because they consider both options to be appalling
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@abysssalsss @TrueSlazac When a coin lands Heads-side up, it wasn’t even close to being Tails. In fact, it’s 180 degrees from Tails. That’s about as far as you can get!
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@ATwinEarth @TrueSlazac Yea but the election wasn’t close at all, getting a model with close to even odds especially leaning to Harris is indicative of a poor model
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Inability to understand probabilities is always a very strong indicator that a wannabe intellectual is actually a midwit
vittorio@IterIntellectus
this reminded me of one of the best post on this app
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@JustAFamilyMan_ The Marxist framing died years ago.
A large majority of Americans A) own capital and B) are low-level employees.
But they still keep pretending it’s 1932.
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@entirelyuseles @StevenPBenn @JamesSurowiecki Humans meaning pals? Therapists? Or college students recruited for the study to act as neutral arbiters for a stranger?
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@StevenPBenn @JamesSurowiecki No, it was 49% more likely than humans, showing that OP was correct that it should have been specified.
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@supremeMilo @constans I mean you certainly are but I don't think even those countries are purposely destroying themselves on the whims of a cult leader with a long list of personality disorders and to impress the dumbest people in the country.
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Iran is very rational. Trump figures his only hope is to be irrational beyond all expectation and hoping Iran will blink
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Iran can remain irrational longer the Donald Trump (and the global economy) can stay solvent.
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@Midwest_expat @TrueSlazac OK but supposing it was a coin toss? What is he supposed to say?
I suppose Nate Silver should to be able to predict literal coin tosses while the coin is in the air?
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@TrueSlazac Priding yourself on being a statistical wizard and then putting out an article that says “it’s basically a coin toss” to avoid being wrong not good work
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@dmesg @StatisticUrban If Hillary had racked up an extra 10,000,000 votes in California; or if California had 100 EV, that would count as a landslide in some senses—but not any useful sense
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@dmesg @StatisticUrban It shows *how close* the other candidate was to winning. If Hillary had had just slightly more support throughout the country, it helps the party adjust their strategy.
1/2
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@TESSERACT___ @sagelywinter @OscarTheOwl561 @Zbalthur @Ahilli_com OK but they are marketing that to amateurs
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@ArthurCDent @madeofmistak3 It’s “swum”, not “swam”, so the researchers really have no business saying who is “low effort” in this relationship
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@madeofmistak3 Congratulations the researcher will now not treat the rest of your responses as low-effort dross
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