@EhrmantrautCap_ @CKCapitalxx $ASTS has proved everything so far that are in their control.
Only remaining are launching.
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B🅰️T🅰️
446 posts
Great post from @CKCapitalxx on AST SpaceMobile $ASTS.
AST SpaceMobile could generate more than $40 billion revenue in the future at very high margins. This company has the potential to have a market cap of over $1 trillion over time.
With over 50 carrier partners like AT&T $T, Vodafone $VOD, Verizon $VZ etc. and the FCC already having approved the constellation for 248 satellites, it's just a matter of getting the satellites up. Obviously, not an easy task. But bearing in mind the massive potential once they succeed, the risk/reward ratio in this stock is very attractive.
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx
Netflix has 301 million subscribers paying an average of $17 a month. That is $5 billion in recurring revenue every single month. Same infrastructure. Margins expanding every quarter because the cost base barely moves while the subscriber count grows. That is the $ASTS model from space. When the constellation is built $ASTS sits above AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, TELUS and 50 plus carrier partners as the infrastructure layer that makes coverage possible everywhere on earth. The carriers bill the customer. $ASTS collects a cut on every connected subscriber every single month. Over 3 billion potential subscribers already on partner networks today. Here is where it gets interesting. AST has shared survey data showing that a significant portion of users would pay for satellite connectivity as an add-on to their existing plan. Run the math at even conservative adoption rates. At 30% of partner network subscribers opting in that is 900 million paying subscribers. At $5 per month per subscriber that is $4.5 billion in monthly recurring revenue. $54 billion annually. On fixed infrastructure that does not get more expensive as more people connect. At 50% adoption that is 1.5 billion subscribers. $7.5 billion per month. $90 billion in annual recurring revenue. Netflix generates $40 billion a year and trades at a $400 billion market cap. $ASTS at 30% adoption would be generating more annual revenue than Netflix does today. On a fixed satellite infrastructure that is already being launched right now. The carriers already have the customers. The FCC already approved the service. FirstNet is already granted. The only thing left is getting enough satellites in orbit.
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@UnLuckyStuey What @UnLuckyStuey won't tell you is that FirstNet(around 7Million users and 8Million connections) are sticky users, who needs service 24/7 in preparation for unknown emergency.
That itself gives us around $720 Million revenue if $ASTS gets $7.5/month per user/connection.
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What the $ASTS people wont tell you is that first responders barely make up 3% of all people in the USA. That is a paltry 10million people. Probably only worth half a billion dollars a year. That would only cover the interest on $VSAT debt for a year.
....oh....crap
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So, $ASTS received FCC approval, yet it’s still trading below yesterday’s pre-market level?
GIF
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@valuations_ Didn't know you would stoop to this lowly level. GTFO since you have no credibility left.
And yeah true, MLM gets full SCS approval from FCC correct? Loser. GFYS.
GIF
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@CatSE___ApeX___ I was missing your updates for the past couple days @CatSE___ApeX___. Thanks for showing up.
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@davill @spacanpanman @NASAAdmin @charlesboyer Sometimes we have to take 1 step backward to move 3 steps forward.
Hoping BO is going to get there sooner!
All the very best!
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@NASAAdmin @charlesboyer Thank you, Jared. Learnings from this setback will make us better. We’ll be back on the pad soon for AST SpaceMobile, NASA, and all our customers.
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Now that we have a more complete view, we wanted to provide an update on our NG-3 mission. While we are pleased with the nominal booster recovery, we clearly didn't deliver the mission our customer wanted, and our team expects. Early data suggest that on our second GS2 burn, one of the BE-3U engines didn’t produce sufficient thrust to reach our target orbit. Blue Origin is leading the anomaly investigation with FAA oversight to learn from the data and implement the improvements needed to quickly return to flight operations. We have been in steady communication with the team at AST SpaceMobile, we appreciate their partnership, and we’re looking forward to many flights together.
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$ASTS: Weird. My charts show that the target for this move sits around $2-5
StockChaser@StockChaser_
$ASTS target for the move sits around $50.50 - $28.96 Short term, not looking ideal Long-term thesis remains unchanged, but I’d only consider adding at those lower levels, not here
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@BBizman62112 @planet4589 Was thinking about the same yesterday. Since it's a MILNET satellite, things can be masked as dead on arrival, while the deployment is kept secret.
We never know.
The updates from BO was wiered to say the least. As if it was preplanned update and mute until this afternoon.
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@planet4589 Gov didn’t want anybody knowing they got BB7 in orbit for their tests so they told BO and ASTS to fake a non nominal orbit
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Well this is REALLY WEIRD. Space Force just issued another BB7 orbit with an epoch of 1235 UTC yesterday and a nominal orbit of 455 x 462 km x 49.5 deg. I suspect this orbit is BOGUS and is a `search orbit' not based on real measurements that slipped through by accident
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@endless_frank Successful launch and space capabilities are in our national interest to win the space race.
These are minor blips in the grand scheme of things.
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$ASTS Space X’s 1st 3 launches all blew to pieces. How many Starships have blown up and streaked across the sky lately?
The FCC hasn’t shut them down. New Glenn is not being shut down. Too many pus*y investors out there that don’t realize when you push limits shit happens.
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@deepvaluedude I don't think $VOD would do that. Their interest rate is very low on their debt and raised large cash pile by selling Spain and Italian assets. Moreover, they have been doing buybacks since couple of years now.
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$ASTS $VOD
I’d expect Vodafone to do the same at some point. The point here is, these companies are making decisions to improve their balance sheets rather than taking a stance on AST’s valuation. If these companies didn’t have crap balance sheets, I’d bet they’d ride this investment til it either hits $1000 or $0 because of the asymmetry.
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman
$ASTS: It was inevitable for Rakuten to sell some portion of its stake in order to use that cash to deleverage its balance sheet. Finance 101.
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@Shrimp_a_Whales Raukuten owns around 35M shares. So, selling couple Million shares is a small percentage of ownership.
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Hey, Mickey hey / Don’t break my heart, Mickey 🎶 $4755.T $ASTS
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@spacanpanman @Defiantclient2 Is this telling us that a "Big Partnership is coming" between $ASTS and $AMZN?
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$ASTS: 🤌 Cool details in the BONG-7 mission patch. You can see Jacklyn barge off the coast of Florida and a ♻️ symbol on Never Tell Me The Odds booster. The continents are mapped with service beam cells and the entire border is in the shape of BlueBird-7’s large phased array.
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@endless_frank I suspect Musk and his associates are taking short positions to suppress competing investment narratives, ensuring that capital remains concentrated on SpaceX’s projected market cap ahead of its IPO?
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$ASTS Why don’t you pu*sies that are short 40% of the float of AST Spacemobile come out and tell us who you are and what your thesis is?
Why stay in the shadows like frauds when you have such a high conviction short bet on?
Speak up.
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Not saying this will happen, but it would be one hell of a plot twist if the $GSAT deal really was just $AMZN buying spectrum and then deploying it via $ASTS like all of the other MNO partners.
C🅰️tSE@CatSE___ApeX___
@tomster000 🎯 Deploying GSAT L/S spectrum rights on $ASTS Block2 sats in the way there is already a filing to do so with Ligados rights is the obvious way to get that ”next generation” high SE service operational by 2028. It’s the smart way & missing piece now that Amazon secured spectrum.
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@techinvestoor How about $ASTS is a monopoly, while technically it is not, with competition from $AMZN and $SPACEX
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$ASTS
All that Amazon has to do is figure out how to copy AST‘s technology, without infringing, then build out huge satellites that actually work, then convince billions of subscribers to switch from their carriers
Easy Peezy
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Would you be happy with an $ASTS sellout value of $300/share, or do you think it’s worth more?
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@Defiantclient2 @OmniAeronautica @Amazonleo @AST_SpaceMobile @Starlink @amazon They only mentioned D2D and customer end-points and iPhone(GSAT) connectivity(that was already in place with Apple partnership).
To me this looks like IoT usecases than MNO partnership move.
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$ASTS: Who will @Amazonleo’s D2D customers be in 2030+ when service actually starts?
MNOs are open to multiple satellite partners but by then they’ll already have @AST_SpaceMobile and @Starlink.
Does @Amazon really think MNOs want ANOTHER option? Or should they just partner with AST to deploy their newly acquired spectrum, similar to Ligado?
Recall the recent rumours as well that iPhone 18 Pro will have indoor satellite connectivity. @Globalstar can’t do that. Only AST can.
Amazon Leo@Amazonleo
Amazon is acquiring @Globalstar to support our long-term vision for Amazon Leo. The agreement will allow us to build a next-generation direct-to-device constellation that connects to Leo first- and second-generation systems, forming a unified network to connect hundreds of millions of customer endpoints globally.
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Sum of the parts analysis can be one of the most powerful tools for cutting through market noise.
$AMZN is a perfect case study right now (so was $GOOG $GOOGL in 2025).
Just a few weeks ago, the market was valuing $AMZN at approximately $2.10T. Today $AMZN is worth $2.56T. Let that sink in for a moment.
Now let’s isolate just two of its business segments — AWS and Advertising.
In 2025, these two segments alone generated roughly $197 billion in combined revenue, growing approximately 20% year-over-year, at operating margins exceeding 35%.
Together, they produced nearly $70 billion in operating income.
Apply a 30x (LTM) multiple to those earnings — reasonable for businesses of this durability and growth profile — and the implied value of AWS and Advertising alone approaches $2.10T.
At the lows just a few weeks ago, the market was assigning close to $0 value to everything else.
And what is everything else for free?
• A ~15–18% equity stake in Anthropic
• A global logistics network approaching $600B in retail topline — with 80% of global retail still happening in physical stores
• A Prime membership base with unmatched loyalty and expanding services
• A chips business (Trainium + Graviton) with an implied standalone run rate of ~$50B, growing triple digits
• One million robots across fulfillment centers, still in early stages
• Whole Foods, Amazon Fresh, and a grocery business now second largest in the U.S. at $150B+ in gross sales
You were getting all of that for nearly free.
This is what sum of the parts reveals when the market is focused on the noise.
I encourage you to read Andy Jassy’s 2025 shareholder letter that was released two days ago.
aboutamazon.com/news/company-n…
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®@DimitryNakhla
$AMZN trades at ~$2.17T market cap. AWS + ADS generated ~$197.36B in LTM revenue — both segments with 30%+ operating margins. $AMZN now trades ~11x AWS + ADS sales.
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@NoLimitGains Wait till SPACEX, OPENAI, DATABRICKS, ANTHROPIC are added to the Index.
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