TSLA$420.69

Should $TSLA merge with SpaceX before or after Robotaxi value unlock?

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Tesla shareholders funded the robotaxi vision through the hard part. The missed timelines, ridicule, drawdowns, and the “FSD is impossible” years. So if Tesla ever gets folded into SpaceX, the question isn’t “would that be cool?” It’s: who gets paid for the robotaxi value? Bradford breaks it down here.👇

Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI! The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer." On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments. Who could argue with that? I will. (I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time). AI waits for no one First, have you seen how fast AI is moving? How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know. How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know. So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space. The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most. Robotaxi Ramp Issues What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come? What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible? Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi. Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point. Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale." What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for? 1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash. 2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus. 3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car). 4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus. 5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus. 6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this). 7) SpaceX's material science expertise. Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above? - What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI? - What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI? Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus. That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time: - a Robotaxi mile is driven, - an Optimus unit uses Grok, - a vehicle connects through Starlink, - Tesla uses orbital data centers, - or Tesla runs fleet-level inference. So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage. Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever. Pick your poison carefully!

Not the only mystery vehicle spotted in Austin this week..

When will $TSLA reach ATH like every other stock? What’s weighing it down?

전 초등학생 2학년 아들을 둔 평범한 40대 회사원입니다. 테슬라 $TSLA 주식을 6년 째 하락장에 꾸준히 매수해서 수량이 꽤 많이 모였습니다. 24년도 일론이 트럼프 지지할 당시 정치 리스크로 테슬라를 제외한 모든 주식들이 ATH를 찍을 때 자고 있는 제 아들을 보면서 눈물이 났습니다. 하지만 성공하는 아버지의 모습을 보여주고 싶어서 이 악물고 버텨냈습니다. 그런데 올해에도 반도체 주식이 폭등하는 걸 보면서 또 다시 제 아들과 와이프에게 미안한 마음이 듭니다. 테슬라 $TSLA 주식을 한 주라도 더 모으려고 아끼고 해외여행 한 번 다녀온 적이 없습니다. 제 가족에게 너무 미안합니다. 저 같이 못난 아빠, 남편을 둬서요.. 그래도 끝까지 가보려고 합니다. 이 끝이 어디일지... 제 아들에게 포기하는 아빠로 남을 수 없습니다. 끝까지 가보겠습니다.