kun uale
151 posts
Don’t make the mistake of buying long-term Treasuries thinking 4.58% on a 10-year or 5.12% on a 30-year are good deals. Not only will those low yields not even come close to covering the purchasing power you will lose to inflation, but bond prices will fall as rates keep rising.
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Why are there currently ZERO chances for a peace deal:
-Trump won't agree to a deal with Iran worse than JSOC
-Iran won't agree to a deal that doesn't confirm its control over the SoH
-Israel won't agree on Iran keeping its enriched uranium
-Everyone wants to declare victory
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Best trade deal ever!! IRGC promises to buy even more soybeans…
zerohedge@zerohedge
*TRUMP SAYS HE FEELS US CLOSING IN ON A DEAL WITH IRAN: PBS sigh
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@EricLDaugh That’s pretty much what they agreed to in Obama’s deal as well
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🚨 DONALD TRUMP CONFIRMS IRAN HAS AGREED TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS
This is HUGE! 🇺🇸
"Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won't. And they've agreed to that, among other things, yes!" 🔥
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@DrEliDavid The deal he gets is irrelevant. He will window dress it as flawless victory and build some memorial of the Operation Epic Fury in the ballroom
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I TRUST PRESIDENT TRUMP that he didn't go through all this for a deal that is as bad as Obama's JCPOA.
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@LukeGromen At this point worst case scenario is some crunch in jet fuel shortage. No summer holidays in Europe, more zoom calls some V shaped drop in GDP growth for Q3 with recovery in Q4. Irrelevant for DRAM prices which is what drives stocks nowadays
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@LukeGromen markets don’t care about all of this. Trump will get some floppy deal and sell it as victory. Capacity to tolerate the shock was much higher than people expected. Those that got wrecked are the likes of Bangladesh or Philippines and none cares.
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When the US & Vietnam finally agreed to peace talks in 1968, it took months for the two sides to agree where to hold the talks, & then, once that was decided, another 10 weeks to decide the shape of the negotiating table & who would sit where.
This reminded me of that story👇
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@SmedleyButlerUS @DrSteveGoeddeke I think thinking about yield increases in bonds as “dips” is a bit dangerous, ie you cannot apply the same technical principles of stocks. Ultimately what provided a ceiling to yields is Uber easy monetary policy you simply do not have anymore.
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@DrSteveGoeddeke If you want a super brutish plain speaking explanation: it's really a buy the dip strategy.
There's never been a bigger dip than there is right now in bonds
It's (almost) that simple
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10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate versus Rates
Every time is the same in that every time everyone thinks it will be different this time - it isn't
Long $TLT
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@RealJimChanos @1CoastalJournal @DanGreenhaus Forward P/E doesn’t look that stretched though. Real question is whether these earnings estimates are delivered
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@DanGreenhaus You sure about that? At its peak in the 1Q of 2000 the S&P 500 was at almost 27x concurrent EPS. Right now we are at almost 26x that figure. And the first 30% drop in the NASDAQ in March-April of 2000 occurred on absolutely no deteriorating fundamental factors whatsoever.
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This is a perfectly legitimate point by @RealJimChanos. Too often people dismiss comparisons to the 90s tech rally by saying how strong earnings are or how much "better today's companies are. Thats not entirely accurate. The most accurate observation is simply that valuations today are not nearly as extreme as they were at the end of 1999. Full stop.
But thats why focusing on whether this is a "bubble" or not is pointless. How big can the bubble get? When will it end? Who will win? How high is "too high?" Nobody can answer those questions.
Better to wait for indications its ending or slowing. As best as I can tell, we have no such indications.
James Chanos@RealJimChanos
Gotta love the talking heads on FinTV claiming the current market is different from 1999-2000 because unlike then, there is real earnings growth now. (S&P Operating EPS were up 30% from mid-1998 to mid-2000 because, you know, the Internet buildout!)
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@BrettErickson28 Trump and Bessemt completely know all of this, but they just have to lie to frame a victory that doesn’t exist. Ultimately the US will get out of this with some sloppy deal that will be depicted as a secular achievement.
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President Trump has boxed himself into a corner. Kinetic strikes, while militarily successful, did not force Iran to capitulate or topple. The blockade has been nothing short of a disaster predicated on unrealistic timelines. And now, “Operation Freedom” may once again turn this into an active war.
(Yes, I know a blockade is an act of war)
What is most concerning to me, is the TOTAL lack of coherence from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent.
Just yesterday, we heard Bessent state that Iran has “a week” until they are forced to shut-in their oil wells.
A week ago, we heard Trump tell Fox News that Iran’s “oil infrastructure will explode in three days”. Now, on the High Hewitt show today, he said Iran has “two weeks”.
Additionally, my own projections put this timeline in the range of 50-80 days… possibly longer, and this analysis has been backed by other prominent experts who shall not be named that heavily influenced the initial timeline projections.
We’re asleep at the wheel, and have no way out.
The Strait is closed. We’re losing close to 13M barrels per day. Well more than 600M barrels have been lost throughout the conflict.
Bessent can’t decide if we should “jiu-jitsu” the Iranian’s by unsanctioning their oil, or if we should impose a blockade to shut-in their oil wells in 3 days… or 13… 2 weeks? A month and a half?
No Pete, we do not control the Strait.
No Scott, we are not Jiujitsuing the Iranian’s.
No Donald, their old infrastructure is not going to “explode”.
It is time to step down from our maximalist demands, abandon the sunk cost fallacy, and make hard and painful decisions at the negotiating table because we have been strategically outplayed with no viable path to success remaining.
Enough is enough.
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@MarioNawfal “Source: FOX”, really? If he called the IRGC strategic posture madness he would be hanging already.
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🚨🇮🇷 Iran's president called the IRGC's UAE strikes "completely irresponsible" and "madness"...
Per Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian is reportedly furious that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the missile and drone strikes on the UAE without the government's knowledge or coordination.
Pezeshkian called the strategy of escalating with Iran's Gulf neighbors "madness" and warned of "potentially irreversible consequences."
This is the most explicit confirmation yet that the IRGC is operating outside the Iranian government's control.
Foreign Minister Araghchi negotiating in Pakistan while the IRGC seizes ships in Hormuz.
Pezeshkian publicly calling for diplomacy while the IRGC publicly threatens to sink U.S. vessels.
Now the IRGC striking Emirati targets without allegedly telling the Iranian president.
Pezeshkian's framing matters. He's not criticizing tactics.
He's calling the entire IRGC strategic posture "madness" and warning the consequences could be "irreversible."
The civilian-IRGC split inside Iran is now the central variable in whether this war restarts or ends in negotiations.
If Pezeshkian and Araghchi can wrest control back from the IRGC, a deal becomes possible.
If the IRGC keeps acting unilaterally, Iran is going to be in another war regardless of what its negotiators say at the table.
Source: Fox
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A reporter tells Trump to "go for the green" on Iran. His response: "I think you're going to be extremely happy when it all ends. It shouldn't be that long. We're trying to be nice." The only suspense left is whether he sticks the landing or shanks it into the bunker.
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Steps to take over a strait, by DJT:
1. Closing of the strait by using insurance companies in London at the very beginning of the war. Stay mum about it.
2. Put the narrative that Iran is closing the strait which the Iranians really like anyway. Iranians say they do a blockade to tax passing ships.
3. Use that as an excuse to put a blockade outside their blockade.
4. Use the rest of the world’s desire for a solution to start controlling the strait with patrols / escorts, and if they get attacked, use this as the justification for the next leg of the war to further reduce Iranian capabilities.
5. Final outcome : US /allies control the strait after the war whenever that is. (if there is not a regime change in Washington before that - all eyes on the midterms).
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@BuffaloBillCo Plus yes of course there’s the motivational drive, addiction to power, passion ecc but there are still strong economic reasons that often people ignore I think
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@BuffaloBillCo I think in practice key factors are large amounts of vested compensation that keep people with a lot of skin in the game and development of very expensive tastes. Know some large real money managers with insane wine or art collections.
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Increasingly certain the core problem with our society is its run by a bunch of mentally ill psychopaths whose primary motivation is success for the sake of success. Anyone who doesn’t quit their job to play golf and drink after hitting $10M should be put in an insane asylum
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_
This is the type of person you have to be to get hired at Citadel Ken Griffin once asked a Harvard graduate with a Citadel offer letter what he would do if he had $10 million in his bank account The young man replied that he would quit his job to travel and climb the highest peaks around the world Ken Griffin responded by saying that Citadel was not the right fit for him
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@CRUDEOIL231 Seems more a logistical operation to get ships that are inside the strait out rather than restart flows. Doesn’t really change too much I think
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It looks like Iran is left with only two choices: sit back and watch the US Navy escort ships through the strait, losing all their leverage, or respond militarily to protect it.
The former would gut their bargaining power, while the latter gives the US and Israel the perfect excuse to restart hostile military operations.
We all know what Iran is going to choose. The moment their speedboats fire a shot, US and the IDF will drop the missiles.
Tbh i think Washington played this one pretty smart. They’ve set the bait perfectly.
#oott #iran
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo
Trump post on Iran/shipping Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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I'm calling it now, this JP Morgan scandal is going to be a lie. No woman would say this stuff ever and secondly if you were a guy and had a decently attractive woman boss who did all this to you, you would never complain. This is too out there come on.
x.com/algoflows/stat…
AlgoFlows@algoflows
holy fucking shit this is insane
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Luke, once again, confusing UK domiciled entities with the UK govt. As a result, he seems to think that UK twin deficits will pressure UST yields higher because the UK govt will sell USTs that they dont actually own🙄
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@Twin_Sunsett @JavierBlas They could go back to negotiate nuclear without bombs dropping as done during Obama’s term
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@JavierBlas The issue is, once the leverage of the blockade is gone, the incentive for Iran to actually negotiate away their nuclear capabilities basically vanishes. It’s just kicking the can down the road, and the markets know it that’s why we’re seeing this price volatility
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According to both the NYT and the WSJ, President Trump is skeptical of the latest proposal from Iran to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (and leave nuclear talks for later). Oil prices are now the highest since the ceasefire started.
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@DrJStrategy The only reason why Germany cannot defend itself is because in the ‘40s people agreed that it’s better not to deal with fully armed Germany ever again
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For the record.
Friedrich Merz mocking Trump as “humiliated” by Iran while admitting Germany cannot defend itself is the perfect summary of modern Europe.
A continent that outsourced its security to America now lectures America on weakness.
That is not strategic insight. It is welfare-state geopolitics. Classic European arrogance.
Germany wants the moral authority of independence, the comfort of U.S. protection, and the budgetary convenience of not paying for either.
Merz is living in the fantasy world Pax Americana created: criticize the hegemon, depend on the hegemon, and pretend dependency is sophistication.
If America is humiliated, Europe is naked. And if Germany cannot defend itself, Merz has no business sneering at the country that still does.
Bloomberg@business
The US is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders as Donald Trump struggles to negotiate an end to the war, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, in unusually candid comments that risk driving a further wedge in transatlantic relations bloom.bg/4sXDfNy 📷️: AFP via Getty Images
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