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Ryan 🏧🟧
2.7K posts
Ryan 🏧🟧
@ryQuant
“Volatility is the only asset class.” - Christopher Cole
$MSTR Beigetreten Aralık 2024
464 Folgt9.8K Follower
Saylor Academy is now Saylor University.
The Florida Department of Education has granted @saylordotorg university status—marking a major milestone in our mission to provide free, world-class higher education for all.
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@phl43 @saifedean What’s the problem?
The founding fathers of America were quite clear on the aspirational goal of using an unlimited amount of military resources and American lives in order to expand the land of Canaan for a different religion than what the USA was founded on.
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Imagine if you had told the people who supported this stupidity 3 weeks ago that by now the Trump administration would ask Congress for a $200 billion supplemental, that it would be seriously considering using ground troops to hold Iranian territory and preparing for a weeks-long campaign, not to mention the fact that we're in for a large energy shock persisting for months even in the best case scenario.
Anyone who is intellectually honest and not disconnected from reality knows they would have replied that it was complete nonsense, that you were just a panican, etc. But that's where we are and they're still pretending, not just that everything is going according to plan (as if there was a plan in the first place), but that it's actually going even better than they thought it would. It's just pure cult-like behavior at this point.
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
NOW - Hegseth confirms the Pentagon is seeking about $200,000,000,000 billion for the Iran War: "It takes money to kill bad guys."
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@JesseKobernick how much vol u need?
we got big vol, small vol, and everything in between $mstr
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We’ve come a long way from “volatility is vitality.”
Michael Saylor@saylor
$STRC volatility has reached an all-time low of 1.5%, driving its Sharpe Ratio to an all-time high of 5.37—setting a new standard for risk-adjusted performance.
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$MSTR For the short term (the past year & next 2-3 years) there are seemingly two business models.
Concurrent with scaling the Prefs:
1. Drag the BTC Stack higher on a weekly or bi weekly basis, via hitting the common ATM, as long as the (EV) mNAV is slightly higher than 1, even though the market cap is ~10 billion dollars less than the BTC Reserve.
2. mNAV expansion is the top priority. Perhaps refrain from hitting the common ATM (to buy BTC) below 1.5, to use Berkshire’s Price to Book as the line in the sand. We want more BTC per share sold. Said another way, BTC Yield is a function of mNAV. (The higher the mNAV, the higher the BTC Yield, and vice versa). Further, an increased mNAV will give the market more confidence in @Strategy’s ability to pay the Pref Dividends with common ATM, while not having to dip into the USD Reserve, and being able to collect some interest on a rolling laddered bunch of US Treasuries, which can also help (somewhat) to pay the Pref Divs.
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My concern with option #1 is not the mechanics of direct share price impact as a result of the common ATM. I have long believed that the ATM is not driving price, and @_Adrian has done the best analytical work on this.
Rather, my concern with option #1 is that it sends a bad message to the market that we are willing to sell the shares this cheap.
The growth rate of @Strategy’s Treasury is not being reflected in the current valuation. Imagine if by 2030, Strategy flips Berkshire in Treasury size. This growth trajectory is not priced into the stock. Time can help with this.
-Said with humility & great respect for management’s focus, creativity, and innovation. 🫡
Ryan 🏧🟧@ryQuant
This may be controversial for the bulls: I don’t think $MSTR should be hitting the common ATM down here, because I believe that: mNAV= MC/BTC NAV not mNAV= (MC+Pref+Conv-Cash)/BTC NAV
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Strive is amplified Strategy
$ASST up 39% in 1 month
$MSTR up 19%
I am not a fan of ASST at 1x mNAV but if the mNAV drops below 0.9x, I will absolutely add to my position
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@RealJimChanos They are trying to put up @Strategy numbers in equity & convert cap raises.
By the way, perhaps you’ve noticed the $STRC numbers. Prefs now make up ~20% of MC in 1 year. Obscene volume. Par value stabilizing. 👀
Digital Rome. $MSTR
GIF
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So while announcing a big splashy $META deal with few details, $NBIS does a $2B equity deal w/$NVDA at a discount, then files $3.75B in converts…?!
M. V. Cunha@mvcinvesting
🚨 $NBIS announces proposed private offering of $3.75B of convertible senior notes. - $2.0B due 2031 - $1.75B due 2033 Plus an overallotment option (~$560M extra) We need the deal to close first to see the interest rate and conversion price, the most important valuation-sensitive inputs.
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Last day to buy $TSLA in the 3s 🙌
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@TheWealthDr @Z06Z07 Nope, I started where the ADSO numbers start on the “Purchases” tab
But the correlation strength to BTC is the same for the past 5 years.
BpS has been a linear & gradual up trend
BTC and especially MSTR have been nonlinear in both up and down moves
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@BabyHedgehog9 @atmoio @BTCGUS21 In fairness to Elon, it is an easier sell when positioned as selling hopium to unaccountable “fans” instead of delivering results to shareholders.
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True.
New Roadster unveil probably in late April.
Massimo@Rainmaker1973
Today in 2008, Tesla began the regular production on its first car, the Tesla Roadster. Also, a reminder that there's one Tesla Roadster in an elliptical heliocentric orbit crossing the orbit of Mars.
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@BURNERACCNT256 @SimonDixonTwitt “Everyone else has to use freedom money the way that I want them too.”
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Seems like @SimonDixonTwitt is the only one that gets it that bitcoin ownership becoming more centralized is a net negative
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@montezumapalace @Strategy I hope for nothing but the best for all of the opportunistic US reverse merger copycats of $MSTR.
It’s @Strategy’s world, the rest are just paying rent.
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@saylor No. A store of value has to be 100% hacking resistant. It’s an existential feature. For other industries it will be important but less binary/existential.
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