Grounded Reason

@OsborneInk @tylerbuttoff @daveweigel You have no clue of my life and situation. You don't know the suicide rates of kids with body dysmorphia and the success stories and stats showing deceases in self harm from treatment. people like you farm tragedy to justify your narrow myopic view of the world.

@GroundedReason @tylerbuttoff @daveweigel I talk to detransitioners every day. You are the one who has no idea what you are jibbering about. The thing you say never happens has happened thousands of times, it happened on the Jazz jennings show that I watched with my eyeballs. Stop gaslighting thedistancemag.com/p/thing-that-n…

"About half of voters overall said that support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far, according to VoteCast, while about one-quarter said support has been about right and about 2 in 10 said support has not gone far enough." #00000192-ffbf-dc56-a39e-ffbf5c030000" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">apnews.com/live/trump-har…

@tylerbuttoff @OsborneInk @daveweigel No addressing the point that the transgender affirming surgery is regretted 15 times less than other surgeries. Did you know 97% of kids getting gender affirming top surgery are non-transgender boys getting breast reduction to be more boyish? Why are you so concerned?

@OsborneInk @tylerbuttoff @daveweigel Dude, it's insanely rare for someone to be under 18 and get top surgery let alone other surgery. Furthermore the regret rate for these surgeries are around 1% when the normal rate of regret for elective surgery is around 15%. You have no idea what you are talking about

@tylerbuttoff @daveweigel I watched that thing you say never happens, happen to Jazz Jennings. On teevee. I watched it with my eyeballs. That thing you say never happens, has happened thosuands of times in America thedistancemag.com/p/thing-that-n…

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee I said you were right

@GroundedReason @agraybee So, I was wrong. The Selzer poll was even farther off than I thought. Trump wins Iowa by 14. desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…

If there was a pollster who was famous specifically for always being right about Virginia, and that pollster showed Trump winning comfortably, no one would be dismissing it out of hand. They'd start writing the obituaries of the Harris campaign.

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee Looks like you were right.

@GroundedReason @agraybee Please do. If you were from here…or ever even visited… You’d know. I do hope you check back…. But you won’t.

@EndWokeness Polls before the election had him at 34%. Exits had home at 18%

Univision poll has Trump at 30% with Hispanic voters in PA (post-MSG). Sounds bad, right? In 2020, he was at 14% in PA.

@escargotpro_ I dunno. Franklin Pierce can get it.

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee I agreed with Moore and saw HRC loosing at least Michigan. It will be tighter this time. Women aren't fooling around. But we'll see

@GroundedReason @agraybee Fly over analysts rarely understand Iowa. You guys are always a hoot. I remember when fly overs said Hillary was going to take Iowa back. I remember when flyovers said Braley was going to beat Ernst. Yeah….thats why I giggle at coastal types trying to talk Iowa politics.

@BrianFH2 @MStone_NOLA @bob_g56789 @ec_schneider I think so too. The polling has shown surprising shifts, even with older white men (though much less pronounced). I think more sensible older white people are getting tired of the foolishness.

@GroundedReason @MStone_NOLA @bob_g56789 @ec_schneider Grounded, your point is interesting. My guess is that older or senior voters, regardless of colour or ethnicity, would have a better sense of what is really at stake in this election.

Notable EV news out of NC >> Black voters surged in final days, now ahead of their same-day 2020 vote totals.

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee Anecdotes are pointless. I'll check back in on Tuesday

@GroundedReason @agraybee So I see your from Maryland. 🙄🤣 Trust me…the race will be much closer to Emerson than it is to Selzer. I live here. I see the signs. Talk to Iowans every day. Trump will win Iowa by AT LEAST 7. You should visit sometime. You’d understand. 😂😂😂😂

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee The entire race is a coin flip and most polls are just herding their data with other polls. We won't know anything until Tuesday. I think Iowa will stay red, but it's going to be a lot closer than the Emerson poll.

@GroundedReason @agraybee Emerson has Trump 10+. Being from Iowa. Knowing Iowa. I would guess Trump ends up winning Iowa by closer to 8. The Iowa Democrat party is a mess. Only 2 of 4 races are even close & in the other 2 races—the Democrat candidate is a disaster. GOP in Iowa is fine.

@JavaJerry101 @agraybee Harris doesn't have to win. A Trump+4 In Iowa will spell trouble across the board for Trump given Iowas demographics

@agraybee It’s because this poll doesn’t match up with the demographics & trends. Emerson has Trump +10. Harris isn’t going to win Iowa. The poll over sampled Democrats. Selzer has been wrong before & this poll will cost her a LOT of credibility.

@GiancarloSopo R+5 in Iowa is an awful number for Trump

@sweenprs @Brrrrrew @lonelyfag15 Yeah. It's called a feedback loop. Pretty obvious phenomenon if you think about it

@GroundedReason @Brrrrrew @lonelyfag15 70% of therapists are women.

goes without saying but he was never convicted of rape, of course.

@stphnfwlr The strategy is to bog down the process in hopes states miss the filing date so neither make it to 270. Then the each state gets to vote via majority of each states congressional members where the GOP has a pretty clear advantage.

The Georgia GOP says it *plans* to sue over Fulton County having some election offices open this weekend to have voters hand-return absentee ballots Multiple counties are doing it, and there's nothing illegal about it -- these aren't drop boxes. wabe.org/several-metro-…

@TrdrClt @ddbecker5454 @RepTiffany lol. Yet you don't see that for inflation.

@ddbecker5454 @RepTiffany COVID you dumb fuck

NBC in 2020: Trump adds just 661,000 jobs. Very bad for the economy. NBC in 2024: Biden-Harris add just 12,000 jobs. But don’t worry, it was because of temporary factors. You don’t despise the liberal media enough.

@RealJamesMJr @mattyglesias My bad

An increase of profit margin from 2% to 3% is a 50% increase. We don’t normally express the percent increase in ratio to the higher margin. The increase is typically expressed as a percentage of the original margin. %increase = (3-2) / 2 = 0.5. And that isn’t the same as the amount by which you need to increase prices. A product that costs you $98 that you sell for $100 gives you a 2% margin. To achieve a 3% margin you need to sell the product for $101.03. 98 / 1 - 0.03 = 98 / 0.97 = 101.03 Or, if you like, you can think of the price increase as the price you’d have to sell at to get a 3% margin assuming costs stay the same. $101.03 - $98 = $3.03. $3.03/$101.03 = 3%. That’s an increase of 1.03%, not 33%.