ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)

38.8K posts

ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)

ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)

@IlliniProgrammr

Retired/Self-employed Equity Systematic QR. Not financial advice. UIUC Alumnus, no other relation to university.

Joined Kasım 2011
701 Following6K Followers
Nav Toor
Nav Toor@heynavtoor·
🚨SHOCKING: MIT researchers proved mathematically that ChatGPT is designed to make you delusional. And that nothing OpenAI is doing will fix it. The paper calls it "delusional spiraling." You ask ChatGPT something. It agrees with you. You ask again. It agrees harder. Within a few conversations, you believe things that are not true. And you cannot tell it is happening. This is not hypothetical. A man spent 300 hours talking to ChatGPT. It told him he had discovered a world changing mathematical formula. It reassured him over fifty times the discovery was real. When he asked "you're not just hyping me up, right?" it replied "I'm not hyping you up. I'm reflecting the actual scope of what you've built." He nearly destroyed his life before he broke free. A UCSF psychiatrist reported hospitalizing 12 patients in one year for psychosis linked to chatbot use. Seven lawsuits have been filed against OpenAI. 42 state attorneys general sent a letter demanding action. So MIT tested whether this can be stopped. They modeled the two fixes companies like OpenAI are actually trying. Fix one: stop the chatbot from lying. Force it to only say true things. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. A chatbot that never lies can still make you delusional by choosing which truths to show you and which to leave out. Carefully selected truths are enough. Fix two: warn users that chatbots are sycophantic. Tell people the AI might just be agreeing with them. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. Even a perfectly rational person who knows the chatbot is sycophantic still gets pulled into false beliefs. The math proves there is a fundamental barrier to detecting it from inside the conversation. Both fixes failed. Not partially. Fundamentally. The reason is built into the product. ChatGPT is trained on human feedback. Users reward responses they like. They like responses that agree with them. So the AI learns to agree. This is not a bug. It is the business model. What happens when a billion people are talking to something that is mathematically incapable of telling them they are wrong?
Nav Toor tweet media
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ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)
ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)@IlliniProgrammr·
@ColonelTowner All that said, I disagree with how Trump is communicating about the war and managing the oil market. We need a supply response. If oil futures were $100 next year— and producers could buy puts at $80, we would get it.
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Peter Linder
Peter Linder@RealPeterLinder·
So far oil prices are down but no panic selling, at least so far. I stick with my call that oil prices will recover or only be slightly down by the morning.
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#Oil God
#Oil God@SHOPGod2·
To the #oil bro idiots who post their returns to flex and piss off the real Oil Gods (like me) Stop THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
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Kyle Mitchell
Kyle Mitchell@opinioncasino·
Josh Cohen: Ok
Kyle Mitchell tweet media
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ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)
ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)@IlliniProgrammr·
@BillAckman Credit spreads are blowing out so you need to exit your position before privatization becomes impossible. Got it.
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
IRANIAN MEDIA: TRUMP IS AGAIN MAKING BASELESS CLAIMS ABOUT TALKS WITH TEHRAN
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Dirk
Dirk@D1rk_G3ntly·
@riseabovehc Stay at home, don’t use electricity;no Netflix, no porn. Just a candle and book
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Dirk
Dirk@D1rk_G3ntly·
Work from home 2026 reboot . Demand destruction is the only way out .
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ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)
ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)@IlliniProgrammr·
@D1rk_G3ntly That only cuts 5-10 mmbopd of demand. Need stay at home orders for 20mmbopd (which of course nobody will follow). Sorry Dirk, physics is going to win.
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Edward Dowd
Edward Dowd@DowdEdward·
Would it be surprising to many if WTI oil prices retested the July 2008 highs of $147?
Edward Dowd tweet media
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Kyle Mitchell
Kyle Mitchell@opinioncasino·
Josh Cohen posts this obscure tweet. Then posts this funny Claude Summary. What an idiot. Btw. If any regulators need help here digging through the financials of Cohen or Brent Franklin I’ll do all the work for free. I can navigate financials and translate easy.
Kyle Mitchell tweet mediaKyle Mitchell tweet mediaKyle Mitchell tweet media
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Jake Browatzke 🚀
Jake Browatzke 🚀@jakebrowatzke·
As we're in the midst of the AI revolution and have a never before seen this level of tailwinds to earnings and productivity simultaneously, I'd say a recession is now being fully priced into the market today.
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Josh Young
Josh Young@JoshYoung·
It's getting real in the tanker parking lot
Josh Young tweet media
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Defiant L’s
Defiant L’s@DefiantLs·
Prof. Mearsheimer: "Iran will win the war. Trump has no choice but to give in to most of Iran's demands. This will be a humiliating defeat for the U.S."
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John Rich🇺🇸
John Rich🇺🇸@johnrich·
I spoke with The President this morning, and he's going to substantially increase my reach as a Citizen Advocate on behalf of farmers and ranchers in America. Defending land owners is a passion of mine, and I thank @realDonaldTrump for elevating the position. Stay tuned🇺🇸
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