Paul Simms

@FranciscoSpace5 Not convinced. SPB, a year ago “My view is of some applications is that Earth Observation is pretty much done.”

From GROK: $RKLB The odds that Rocket Lab will get (deeper) into Earth Observation (EO) are extremely high — I'd put it at 85-95% over the next 2-3 years. 😱😱😱😱 They've already started, and the pieces are falling into place fast. Geost acquisition (closed 2025): This directly brought in EO/IR payloads (electro-optical and infrared sensors) with 20+ years of heritage. These are explicitly used for Earth observation, alongside missile warning, ISR, and space domain awareness. Rocket Lab's CEO called it their official entry into the payload market for EO missions. Mynaric acquisition (closing April 2026): Adds in-house laser optical comms (CONDOR terminals). EO satellites produce massive amounts of imagery/data — laser links solve the downlink bottleneck, making large EO constellations practical and competitive. Vertical integration complete for EO: They now control bus (Photon/Lightning), payloads (Geost), comms (Mynaric), components, and launch (Electron + future Neutron). This lets them offer full end-to-end EO solutions as a prime contractor. But everything points to them expanding in EO either by selling complete EO spacecraft, winning more payload contracts, or eventually operating their own imaging/data services.

@scotto2050 I’m predicting a high of $140, finishing year at $120

Rocket Lab $RKLB 2026 Predictions What will $RKLB stock price be at the end of 2026?

@philliplyle410 If people are looking for work life balance they probably shouldn’t be working at a business like ASTS!

A few more references to burnout and unrealistic expectations in $ASTS employer reviews at Glassdoor and Indeed. Yes, hard to say who really wrote these, but the sentiments being expressed align with the delays experienced this year.

@Clays26 @RKLBMan @bradsferguson Don’t be so sure. $PLTR is about 450 billion market cap with around 4.5 billion revenue. Give it 10 years and we’ll see RKLB at 400 billion, if not sooner

@RKLBMan @bradsferguson neither considering LMT is only 110 billion market cap with 70 billion in revenue. Space stocks so insanely over valued

What’s the Next SpaceX? RocketLab? AST SpaceMobile? Everyone wants to know what comes after SpaceX. They watch the private valuations climb ($150 billion, $350 billion, now $800 billion) and start thinking about the next rocket company that’ll 10x. I’ve heard this before. Back in 2020, a friend 4x’d his Tesla position in ten months. Proved he could spot a winner. So naturally, he wanted to do it again. “What’s the next Tesla?” I told him: “Tesla is the next Tesla.” He hated that answer. So he sold most of his shares and went hunting. Tesla went up another 8x. SpaceX Is Still in the First Inning People see an $800 billion valuation and think it’s priced for perfection. They hear $1.5 trillion IPO and it sounds absurd. They’re missing the compounding loops just now kicking in. Starlink hit 9 million subscribers in December 2025, just 47 days after hitting 8 million. Revenue roughly doubled from 2023 to 2024. They just bought $17 billion in spectrum licenses for direct-to-cell, opening up every smartphone on the planet as a customer. SpaceX completed 165 Falcon 9 launches in 2025. More than the rest of the world combined. One booster has flown 32 times. Cost to orbit runs under $2,700 per kilogram. And Starship deployed satellites in orbit in August. This isn’t a PowerPoint anymore. But here’s what almost nobody is talking about yet. The AI Data Center Play Nobody Sees Coming Musk confirmed in late 2025 that SpaceX will build data centers in space using Starlink V3 satellites. Starting in 2026. Sounds crazy until you understand the problem. AI is hitting a wall. Not chips. Power and cooling. McKinsey projects AI data centers will require $5.2 trillion in capital expenditure by 2030. Microsoft’s Nadella admitted some GPUs sit idle because they can’t get enough electricity. Space solves both problems. Solar panels in orbit capture eight times more energy than ground installations. No clouds, no night. Cooling? The vacuum handles heat dissipation through radiation. No water, no cooling towers, no permitting nightmares. Google announced Project Suncatcher to launch prototype AI satellites in 2027. But SpaceX has something nobody else has: 7,500+ Starlink satellites with laser links, 165 launches per year, and costs heading toward $200 per kilogram. Google has to partner with SpaceX for launches. SpaceX just does it. The original thesis: control launch, control the space economy. The new thesis: AI infrastructure is hitting hard limits on Earth. The company that controls low-cost launch and operates the world’s largest satellite constellation will dominate orbital compute. ARK projected SpaceX at $2.5 trillion by 2030. That was before AI data centers became real. The Uncomfortable Truth About Compounding Compounders are hard to hold because it’s boring. You buy at IPO. It goes up. You feel smart. Then nothing happens. Or it drops 40% because Elon tweeted something controversial. Meanwhile, Twitter is full of posts about the new hot space stock up 40% in a week. You start thinking: “I could be making money right now.” That’s the test. Compounding doesn’t feel like winning. But it creates generational wealth. Not the 4x in 18 months. The 50x over 10 years. You only get the 50x if you sit through the boring middle part. So What’s the Next SpaceX? SpaceX is the next SpaceX. The company valued at $800 billion can hit $5 trillion by the end of the decade. Telecom. Launch. Government contracts. And now, potentially, the infrastructure layer for global AI compute. The hard part isn’t finding the next big thing. It’s holding what you already found long enough to let it become the thing. Most people lose because they go hunting for new dragons before finishing the one right in front of them.

@cyberprince_rwo 😂 shame you gave up on RKLB when it was just getting started!

If I was able to pump a 2b rocket company $RKLB and it’s now at 40b I sure as hell can pump a 1b mc biotech too fade at your own risk during the wildest mania since 1999 2026 will be a mega banger year as humanity accelerates to the singularity Biotech will explode $ABCL 😈🏴‍☠️

@itschrisray @MDK5ADAY I miss being able to buy under $5, wish it lasted a bit longer!

@MDK5ADAY I hope you mean the UP part and not the 2.5 years of flat 😅

You’re a real one if you held $RKLB through this entire 2.5 year period. #IYKYK

@Early_Catalyst I caved and sold 10% at $67, up from an average of $6. Psychologically I feel more confident to hold the rest for 10+ years or for another 10x from here. I have no doubt the price will continue to rise but I won’t regret taking initial investment out and letting the rest ride

Who else already planned to take some $RKLB profits at $100? Since I got in at $4, I’ve envisioned the moment it would hit $100 (I expected it to happen much later) but we’re closer than most people think. I’ll be locking in profits by selling 30% of my total shares at $100.

@ashleevance I thought you had invested at one point. I can’t thank you enough! I’d been buying RKLB regularly since 2022, but read your book in Feb 2024 and it’s helped give me the extra conviction I needed to go as hard as I could when share price dropped below $4. Forever grateful 🙏

I am regretting being ethical enough not to buy Rocket Lab stock

@DanielPriestley 3 is best for me

Which cover do you like best? 1, 2 or 3?

@mottbox_ @itschrisray SPB has already stated that Neutron could easily be adapted to carry more KGs if it was commercially necessary

Worth noting that the 22,800KG in regard to Falcon 9 is its expendable capability. Neutron’s being 15,000KG expendable. The 13,000KG for Neutron is its capability when landing on the barge (ASDS). Falcon 9’s being 17,000KG, though some sources say 18,500KG (ASDS). Interestingly, the average mass of Falcon 9 dedicated customer missions is just 3370KG, 19% of total capacity.

A lot of people point out that, while both medium lift vehicles, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 can lift significantly more payload to orbit than $RKLB Neutron. SpaceX Falcon 9 ➡️ 22,800kg to LEO Rocket Lab Neutron ➡️ 13,000kg to LEO BUT, no one talks about how the first version of Falcon 9 (v1.0) could only lift 10,450kg to LEO… This means the first version of Neutron has almost 25% more payload capacity than the first version of Falcon 9. Neutron will almost certainly evolve over the years to lift more and more to LEO and beyond, similar to the evolution of Falcon 9 from early days to now.

@ArkadiBaudelair Been buying monthly since 2021, best price $3.56, highest $28, average $5.79, plan not to sell any until 2033, not sure I’ll have the bottle to not sell any but we’ll see how they continue to execute

$RKLB has been running up like crazy last couple of weeks, and I know many are tempted to trim or sell everything. I’ve seen it happen before. People who bought at $4 and sold at $6. Bought at $8 and sold at $14. Bought at $17 and sold at $25. And sure, for traders, that might make sense I guess. But very, VERY few bought at $3 and are still holding today. And those who did had something most don’t: The stomach. Everyone on X loves to talk about finding the next 10x, and some even get lucky enough to stumble upon one or two. But when their investment doubles, or triples, they cash out thinking they “won” when in reality, they lacked the stomach to actually win. The real wealth in markets isn’t made by selling early. It’s made by holding through volatility,when the business is thriving, not just the stock price. You don’t sell a great company unless the fundamentals are breaking. But if the fundamentals are getting stronger, the business is growing, and the CEO and management are executing flawlessly… You buy more. Even if it raises your average cost. Because if the company keeps compounding year after year… Wouldn’t it be crazy not to?

@Tim_X94 I love that this is the bear case for RKLB. If your focus is short term trading then Neutron delay or failure will be a problem but as you say it’s just a short term risk. Although I think it will be higher I’ll be happy with a 10x from here in 10 years.

$RKLB Since you want the bear case: 1) Neutron can be delayed until well into 2026 and or the first launch can fail. Resulting in higher CAPEX and higher cash burn in combination with a declining stock price. Still confident Rocket Lab can pull off a launch in Q1 2026 and be it succesful, however it's still a rocket program after all :) Overall this is more of a short-term risk, since in the end I am confident they will figure it out. 2) Longer term valuation bear case: How much money is there to be made in being the number two to SpaceX in launch, space systems and space applications, while not really doing a 5x improvement on SpaceX offering in all segments. The by far largest space applications are consumer oriented, but Rocket Lab is mainly situated for defense / government business, but that's a smaller TAM. My guess is I see a 100B market cap, but I don't see a SpaceX valuation as likely, since I don't see a meaningful consumer entry and that's the largest TAM segment. Holding 200 shares now and expanding, 10X in 10 years is definitely a very good return, so not complaining here.

@AlvaroMysterio No delay - $24 tomorrow $27 next week Delay still 2025 - $18 tomorrow $22 next week Delay to 2026 - $16 tomorrow $18 next week. Hope we see an over reaction so can load up over next few months. Narrative is likely Neutron on track “to the pad” for June/July no chance we 🚀 then

$RKLB post earnings price predictions: No neutron delay: $30+ Delay but still in 2025: $25+ Delay to 2026: Below 20$

@dixonhill432305 @Mattiasett @RocketLab Their earnings call is literally tomorrow, pretty safe bet that they will provide a Neutron update then.

@Mattiasett @RocketLab They owe thier investor's the minimum update especially regarding a huge project such as Neutron. They have responsibilities

$RKLB @RocketLab literally nobody cares about Electron or your moon mission, you do absolutely nothing to stop the selling. please share some updates regarding Neutron progress.

@MajusiMr @mvcinvesting It’s not that hard to imagine, if you were to take away the investment in R&D for Neutron development the company is already profitable. Imagine when Neutron is generating 50+Mil per launch with massively reduced R&D spending

@mvcinvesting For me ITS so hard to Imagine how this will become a profitable Business.

$RKLB has officially completed its 59th Electron launch successfully. ✅ The team keeps delivering!

@francisco_space Probably at least 1/3 the price

I do not get this deal. Why would RedWire not use $RKLB HASTE.

@moesarig 👀 ??

@AwareWealth It really isn’t. PLTR had revenue of nearly 2 billion with clear profits. I’m not saying KULR won’t be a great investment but comparing it to PLTR is laughable

$KULR UNDER $2,5 IS LIKE $PLTR UNDER $10.

@magnusrazzz @TheValueFind3rr Different missions but lots of cross over, obviously SpaceX is currently years ahead but the gaps will likely close. Recommend reading “When the Heavens Went on Sale” by Ashlee Vance

@PaulReflect @TheValueFind3rr What is that makes Rocket lab different from SpaceX. Or is just a direct competitor to spaceX?

Do you know what is even more ridiculous than $PLTR 330% gain this year? $RKLB still being unprofitable and rising 414% (currently valued at $12 billion) What do you guys think?

@magnusrazzz @TheValueFind3rr Listen to some earnings calls, that is a great way to understand more about the business. Peter Beck and Adam Spice are very transparent and insightful. But simple answer is Neutron launching = cash coming in and R&D spend down. Other areas of the business are already profitable

@PaulReflect @TheValueFind3rr I know nothing, but curious to learn. What is the way they get a positive EPS, in the next ~ 5 years.