@pequityresearch I got it from Bloomberg
But you can also get it from their portal
rsch.baml.com
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John Intel
191 posts
@intelfabs Do you have a link to this research report or do you have to pay?
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I think this is the most interesting chart from the B of A $INTC report
AI CPUs are almost as large as HBM by 2030. (This is huge, I will try to explain my view at the bottom of this post)
What almost everyone sees
AI accelerators = $1.1T
HBM = $168B
CPUs = $140B
What everyone may miss is
GPUs create a second CPU boom
Just look at the split:
AI Cluster / Head Node CPUs = $70B
AI Agentic Standalone Node CPUs = $70B
Every GPU cluster needs CPUs.
Agentic AI creates an entirely new CPU market the size of today's cloud CPU market multiple times over.
That's a huge bet.
This actually also has implications for $AMD
If BofA is right:
Intel wins of course
AMD wins
ARM server CPU vendors also win
Because the pie becomes much larger.
Roughly $170B by 2030.
For the part AI CPUs are almost as large as HBM by 2030, this is ultra huge
The market often treats HBM as the second largest AI winner after GPUs.
However, it may not be the case, CPUs could become nearly as economically important as HBM.
So If that happens, investors may have underestimated $INTC relative to memory.
Early AI cycle = GPU GPU GPU but we are not in the early cycle anymore
Next (or now) AI cycle = GPU + HBM + CPU + Packaging Networking + Power
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@SemiAnalysis_ Hot take:
The US government should co invest with Intel instead
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Intel Should Raise Capital
Intel's woes are behind them.
The heavy spending is ahead of them.
Why an equity issuance in a hot equity market could make Intel so much better sooner.
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/intel-should…
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Before any bears come out
B of A is not assuming $INTC reclaims server CPU dominance. It expects Intel’s server CPU value share to so slightly decline to about 24% by CY2030 from about 41% in CY2025
Yet Intel CPU revenue still grows because the total server CPU TAM expands sharply.
So, the thesis again is not Intel wins share. It is the pie gets so much bigger that Intel can lose share and still grow materially.
Double upgrade is not about more CPUs
It is about Bank of America now values Intel as a fully integrated IDM by CY2030 with EPS power of about $6.24
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@intelfabs 16% of S&P 500 funds own Intel.
might what to update this part. More accurate then what you have
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Bank of America just DOUBLE upgrade Intel to buy!!!
Yes, DOUBLE UPGRADE $INTC
BofA is modeling Intel as a future AI infrastructure company where foundry + packaging contribute nearly half of the growth story.
BofA is no longer valuing Intel as a turnaround. They're valuing it as a future AI infrastructure platform.
The foundry numbers are far larger than most people realize (very important)
Apple wafers = $10.6B
MediaTek TPU = $12.4B
Terafab = $8B
Other ARM server CPUs = $10B
Packaging may actually be more important than wafers
(that is ultra pro max important
The Cadence 14A mention is actually a bigger signal than many investors think
The CPU thesis is much more aggressive than people realize
Ownership may be the most important near-term catalyst
BofA says Intel is only:
16% institutionally owned, despite being the fifth-largest semiconductor/AI infrastructure company by market cap.
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@intelfabs I don't like his model at all
Core products is going to be way higher and even next year higher
No shell for Terafab. How is there going to be revenue
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@intelfabs If the numbers are even halfway close $INTC will be at the trillion dollar cap by then if not sooner.
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@Mar364503 @imnotharsh @WayWLeung @awakenowzone @Mojo_flyin @Alex_Intel_ B of A may be right on TAM growth
However, Intel may get more pricing power than people expect
If AI servers cost millions of dollars, CPU pricing becomes a much smaller part of the total bill.
Customers become less price sensitive.
That's exactly what happened in HBM.
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@intelfabs @imnotharsh @WayWLeung @awakenowzone @Mojo_flyin @Alex_Intel_ I think the products side model is a bit weak. There has been at least two rounds of price hikes by at least 10%. The price hikes will likely be more as the demand for agentic AI continues.
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@cholevovo What do you think?
x.com/intelfabs/stat…
John Intel@intelfabs
Bank of America just DOUBLE upgrade Intel to buy!!! Yes, DOUBLE UPGRADE $INTC BofA is modeling Intel as a future AI infrastructure company where foundry + packaging contribute nearly half of the growth story. BofA is no longer valuing Intel as a turnaround. They're valuing it as a future AI infrastructure platform. The foundry numbers are far larger than most people realize (very important) Apple wafers = $10.6B MediaTek TPU = $12.4B Terafab = $8B Other ARM server CPUs = $10B Packaging may actually be more important than wafers (that is ultra pro max important The Cadence 14A mention is actually a bigger signal than many investors think The CPU thesis is much more aggressive than people realize Ownership may be the most important near-term catalyst BofA says Intel is only: 16% institutionally owned, despite being the fifth-largest semiconductor/AI infrastructure company by market cap.
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2027 was too optimistic.
2028 is where the real story may begin.
SoIC yield is still around 50–60%, and downstream assembly yield is only 20–50%.
So the near-term CPO trade may stay weak because the supply chain simply cannot ramp as fast as investors hoped.
One more thing
$INTC advanced packaging may get more customers
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Intel Doubles Down on 14A as Cadence Signs Multi-Year Pact to Co-Optimize the Foundry's "Crown Jewel" Process Tech wccftech.com/intel-doubles-…
wccftech.com/intel-doubles-…
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Very interesting and scary report from Morgan Stanley
The financial engineering behind hyperscaler capex
The truly unsettling part of the AI boom isn’t how much money is being spent
It’s how that money is being engineered through accounting
Hidden liabilities (> $1.8T)
Huge obligations sit off‑balance‑sheet: nearly $1T in purchase commitments, $800B+ in leases not yet started, $2T+ in RPO.
Future cash outflows that don’t show up as debt.
The coming depreciation hit
Profits look good only because spending is stuck in CIP.
Big Tech faces $520B+ in depreciation over 3 years.
ORCL’s depreciation ratio: 7% → 28%.
Supplier financing pressure
Unpaid capex is ~$110B.
ORCL’s DPO exploded from 35 → 170 days.
The whole supply chain is effectively financing the AI build‑out.
Lease accounting gray zones
Whether GPU contracts count as leases or services is subjective — and companies use that flexibility to shift billions on/off the balance sheet.
$ORCL = the most aggressive
Largest lease commitments, RPO up 300%+, capex‑to‑sales hitting 189%.
Oracle is running the highest financial leverage in the ecosystem.
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I tend to agree with this
This pullback on memory is a healthy reset, not the top.
AI DRAM demand is elastic
cheaper DRAM → more inference → more demand.
LTAs could re‑rate memory from 5× PE cyclical junk to 10×+ structural growth.
GPU demand is now memory‑capacity‑driven, not GPU‑count‑driven.
Agent‑based AI = $INTC CPU comeback → massive DRAM uplift.
Edge AI (128GB PCs) is a slow but heavy tail.
Inventories at record lows; HBM 2027 contracts +50–100%.
The ONLY real bear case
a future AI architecture that barely uses DRAM/HBM (which is basically impossible)
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