Rod Coffman
39.7K posts
Rod Coffman
@rodcoffman
Working for a living. The Red Seal on that $2 Treasury Note is really something everyone should understand & if you don't, you are part of the problem.
Joined Mart 2016
4.4K Following2.4K Followers
@BTCBreadMan Maybe you can help explain it to me. I've got no mortgage.
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My best friend is 37 years old.
He has a 15 year mortgage and pays extra every month to pay down the loan faster.
He thinks that he is better off paying less interest long term.
How can I gently explain to him that he is financially illiterate and is making a huge mistake?
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@Ccevik1 @policytensor You lose, if Iran could take out Bibi, I'd be good with that.
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Iran has more than 40 million men fit for military service, all of whom have been conscripted, trained and served in the armed services for 21 months. Some 1.4 million men reach military age per annum.
For reference, Vietnam had no more than 10 million men of military age in 1965. US commitment of ground forces peaked at a half a million men. US armed strength was 1.88 million, 3X larger than 0.62 million today.
Even if the US could field enough divisions in Iran, which it assuredly cannot (see rt), there is just no possibility of winning a counterinsurgency war in Iran. None. Zero. Nada.
Not only is defeat certain if the US commits ground forces to occupy Iran, it will chew up the American army. It’s going to make Vietnam look like a cake walk.
Can’t remember the name of the Substack author who wrote that any serious war will consume the American military and basically put it out of business for a decade. If the US commits large-scale ground forces to Iran, that wager becomes a near certainty.
Policy Tensor@policytensor
OK. Here’s the division math. It does not work. The US cannot occupy Iran even with a draft. Active duty: US Army — 11 Marines — 3 Reserves: National Guard — 8 Total: No draft — 22 Draft 18mo — 2 24mo — 4 38mo — 10 Peak global strength with full draft — 32 (With a draft the constraint is training them fast enough, and outfitting them as combat capable infantry divisions.) Permanent deterrence lockup Korea — 1 (not available to redeploy) Japan — 1 (perhaps available to redeploy) Europe — 3 (maybe one can be redeployed) Total locked up on deterrence missions — 3 Potentially available for Iran: 3mo — 8 6mo — 16 12mo — 18 18mo — 22 24mo — 24 36mo — 30 BUT you can only field half the divisions at a time bc they have to come back stateside for R&R, maintenance, retrofitting. Actual max divisions that can be fielded: 3mo — 6 6mo — 8 12mo — 9 18mo — 11 24mo — 12 36mo — 15 You need 4 divisions to occupy Tehran alone. Iran has a population of 90 million, incl at least 30m men of military age. Even if you go with the super light model or the early Iraq war, you need 36. With the light COIN model you need 60. It’s not possible to do this even with a draft.
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Joe Biden is writing a Presidential memoir book.
What should it be named?
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@Ccevik1 @policytensor Guess the religion, $100 says you get it wrong.
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@jonbrooks We need to figure out how to get controlled deflation going for the economy.
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My friends in their 30s are deciding not to have kids
They’re saying two things:
They don’t have the money
It’s inconvenient to their lifestyle
This is not good.
What do we do?
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@jonbrooks I would think you'd want to buy their businesses that have a steady cash flow.
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48M boomers+ will pass in the next 20 years
Who will buy all their overpriced houses?
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@Bitcoin_Teddy I have some here making $23 an hour, $47,840. We currently have 15 hours of weekly overtime, but nobody works all 52 weeks like that. If they did 48 weeks that's $72,680.
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Rent for one bedroom is $1,800.
That means you need over $4,700 a month just to qualify.
Show me the 22 year old making $73,000 a year for a starter apartment.
I’ll wait
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@patrickbetdavid His left hand was six months of sickness & his right hand was certain death.
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What is the biggest lesson you learned from your father growing up?
Share 👇🏽
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Iran has turned its islands into unsinkable aircraft carriers. Qeshm Island is a massive labyrinth of underground missile bunkers and drone bases. They track US warships long before they even reach the Gulf. Absolute strategic dominance.
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@StealthQE4 There's a Time to go long, a Time to go short & a Time to go fishing. You should plan a trip.
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There’s just nowhere to hide rn.
Nothing is working.
Not even gold or Bitcoin.
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The World has 7 major crude oil choke points, Iran now controls 2 of them, the Strait of Hormuz & the Suez Canal controlled by Iranian proxies in Yemen. This represents about 25mm barrels of the world's crude oil/day. This is about the same as both the US & Russia's total daily production.
In addition to crude oil these 2 choke points also have about 25% of the world's NG, plus 33% of global seaborne fertilizer. In addition about 10% of the world's aluminum.
I'm not real comfortable with Iran having this much power over the world's economy.
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I'm still confused. Please help me here.
Why is America at war with Iran?!
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@PastorMarvy I thought Iran was supposed to wipe Israel off the map in one week?
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Iran attacked 7 countries overnight, Trump and Israel are now having a go at each other.
A weakened Iran shouldn’t have this capabilities after 3 weeks of constant bombing.
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Iran let an oil tanker through the Straight of Hormuz today, headed to India. They paid in Chinese currency, not the US dollar… Let that sink in.
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@trenddaytrader @21stcentury_ML Yuan has been one of many Reserve Currencies for a long time.
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@rodcoffman @21stcentury_ML Do you know how many African Central Banks have diversified their reserves to include the yuan long before this conflict?
Clearly, you are ignorant of the development the Belt and Road Initiative has brought to Africa.
China has come to stay in Africa, get used to it.
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I don’t see how the petrodollar in its current form survives after all this
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Makes LITERALLY ZERO sense. GOLD the hedge for geopolitical instability is crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. Can’t make this up.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Spot gold extends its selloff to -$400/oz on the day, now trading at $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd.
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@OlgaBazova @aniledodie @NawafAlThani @TheLastRefuge2 They are watching Iran 1st hand & seeing what happens if you aren't.
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@NawafAlThani @TheLastRefuge2 The Gulf States are quickly finding out what it is to be the US/Israeli ally.
You made your bed with the devil, and now you have to lie in it too.
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the State of Qatar, The Republic of Azerbaijan, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the State of Kuwait, the Republic of Lebanon, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Arab Republic, the Republic of Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates. All put out a joint declaration condemning the Iranian attacks on the GCC.
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3 weeks into the war and Trump is lifting sanctions on Iran and Russia and enraged Gulf, European and Asian allies. Real strategic genius at work.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER
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@MarioNawfal @Girl777Cali Between Hormuz and the Suez Canal Iran controls about 25mm barrels per day of the world's crude oil. That's not a good thing.
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Iran controls three fortified islands right on top of the shipping lanes.
Underground bunkers, anti-ship missiles, and swarm boats that can hit a tanker in minutes.
This is why the Strait matters.
This is why Trump can't walk away.
Whoever controls this corridor controls China's energy future.
Source: AiTelly on YT
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇳 The war in Iran is hitting Indian kitchens hard right now. With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, most of India’s cooking gas imports are stuck, so people are rushing to buy induction stoves and electric heaters before supplies run out. Source: CNN
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