Princeton Policy

🚨Satellites have detected a massive oil spill spreading across a vast area of the Persian Gulf around Iran's Kharg Island. Synthetic aperture radar imagery shows a large surface slick emanating from the waters around Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude oil export terminal responsible for roughly 90% of the country's oil exports. At the time of detection, multiple tankers were simultaneously loading at the Kharg Island terminal. It is not yet clear whether the spill originated from a loading operation, a vessel, subsea infrastructure, or the terminal itself.

NEW: Iranian officials continue to frame control over the Strait of Hormuz as a key strategic interest and a critical component of long-term Iranian deterrence. Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other forms of deterrence. Other Key Takeaways: The United States and Iran remain divided over key issues, particularly Iran’s nuclear program, the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, and Iranian efforts to assert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has continued efforts to maintain an effective naval blockade against Iran as Iran continues to assert long-term sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has continued to escalate rhetorically and militarily against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) amid Iranian attempts to portray the UAE as a hostile state supporting US and Israeli operations against Iran. Iran likely also seeks to demonstrate that continued US military actions against Iran will generate direct security and economic costs for Gulf states cooperating with the United States. Confidential Russian documents, seen by The Economist, revealed a Russian proposal to offer Iran several thousand drones and training for Iranian drone operators, which raises concerns about the proliferation of fiber-optic drone technology to Iran and its regional proxies. Some of these proxies have already demonstrated the ability to employ these systems against US and allied targets.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Zero commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Before Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28th, that number averaged around 140 ships per day.

I want this war to end - now. And I want a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program. But what we are learning is that any deal Trump gets - and a deal is still very unlikely - is going to be WAY worse than the nuclear deal he cancelled a decade ago. 1/ Here's what we know:

10/10 BOTTOM LINE: A naval blockade imposes ~$435M/day in combined economic damage. Storage fills in 13 days, forcing well shut-ins that cause permanent reservoir damage. The rial enters terminal collapse. Iran's alternatives outside the Strait can replace less than 10% of Gulf throughput. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible.