Pattonator

@jhaboush So Iran published their 14 points. Where is there any agreement?

A senior US official says Iran is likely to resist these red lines: wsj.com/opinion/iran-d…

Senior US officials to WSJ Editorial Board on Iran deal demands: • 20-year enrichment ban • Hand over all enriched material • Attestation it doesn’t seek nuclear weapon • Dismantle Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan • Ban on underground nuclear work • On-demand inspections/penalties for violations

@GuntherEagleman Iran is saying the exact opposite. So there is no agreement here yet. Get ready for oil to spike again.

🚨 TRUMP JUST FORCED IRAN TO SURRENDER ON NUKES: President Trump announces Iran has AGREED to being completely BARRED from producing nuclear weapons. This comes right after he told the press the U.S. is TAKING POSSESSION of Iran’s uranium stockpile.

@morgan_downey The world consumes 104 mbpd of crude and only about 91 mbpd are being produced. Hence the shortage. Supply doesn’t equal demand.

There is a lot of noise about oil shortages? What? It’s a free market. Just buy the jet fuel, gasoline, diesel in the international oil market. There is nothing stopping anyone from doing that right now. Just one click or phone call. Simple. The world is still producing 95 million barrels of oil per day. The world is still producing an enormous amount of jet fuel, diesel, gasoline every single day. Shortages only happen when a government imposes a price control in an individual country. Then the oil market avoids selling in that country if the price cap is lower than international markets. It’s really quite simple.

@MericaFurst1 @joelpollak Stop with the propaganda. The IRGC is clearly the leadership. The main navy is destroyed but they still have 100’s of fast attack boats. That said, they don’t need a navy to stop commercial traffic. What are the objectives? They seem to change daily.

@Pattonator2 @joelpollak Iran has no leadership, no navy, no army, no economy, has had it's nuclear ambitions set back decades, likely forever and many dead Mullahs... all since Feb 28th, yet you don't think we're on track to meet the objectives. Silliness

The Iran war is a complete win, possibly becoming the most comprehensive victory of most of our lifetimes. I say this as someone who leaned toward diplomacy before it began. Do not believe analysts whose only horizon is a 24-hour news cycle and who would be delighted by defeat.

@BrettErickson28 x.com/TankerTrackers… So when history shows that Iran can slow down production without damage to a level where they need zero exports how does this mean that they will ever need to shut down?

@MOSSADil Ok joy. So while Iran gets plastered some missiles and drones will get through and hit some other energy sites in the GCC and that is going to reduce oil shipping even further.

🇺🇸 TRUMP SAYS IRAN HAS 24 HOURS "Iran is given only 24 hours. After that, the world may witness one of the most devastating airstrikes ever."

@BrettErickson28 What does FDD know about Iran's oil storage??? They are just pumping propaganda. Do you know that you can look at recent history and see that Iran went for a few years of barely selling any oil and then quickly scaling back up without oil wells exploding.

@mitchellvii Gas stations sell gasoline based upon what the price is for them to buy their next tanker truck of gasoline. They don't run the refineries who are choosing to sell their refined gasoline outside of the US rather than sell it to you at a discount to what others are willing to pay

Did you know that less than 1% of gasoline stations are actually owned by oil companies? So when those gas stations are ripping you off, it's not the oil companies. It's the owners of the gas stations.

@StephenMoore Trey’s hair is reminding me of PeeWee Herman.

I wrote a column called “Jerome Go Home” because Powell has been at the Fed way too long. Eight years of mistakes including the 9.1% inflation spike. Kevin Warsh will restore credibility, discipline, and a clear commitment to low inflation and a strong dollar!

@CENTCOM @TankerTrackers So is the Navy saying that the ship wasn’t struck but that you had a close call and are still keeping your ships out of easy target range?

🚫 CLAIM: Iranian state media claims that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit a U.S. warship with two missiles. ✅ TRUTH: No U.S. Navy ships have been struck. U.S. forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports.

@EricLDaugh I’m confused. They said that it is a coordination op and not a military op. Centcom only said that they are there for support

🚨 BREAKING: CENTCOM announces that for President Trump's Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military is using - Guided-missile destroyers - Over 100 land and sea-based aircraft - Multi-domain unmanned platforms - 15,000 servicemembers This will GUARANTEE freedom of navigation through the Strait, in the FACE of Iran Trump with the ULTIMATE POWER MOVE! 🇺🇸👏🏻 “Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander

@isaacrrr7 We don’t know how the Iranians will respond.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 ÚLTIMA HORA: ¡¡TRUMP ACABA CON EL BLOQUEO IRANÍ!! El presidente Donald Trump anuncia una medida unilateral que comenzará mañana por la mañana para “liberar” buques mercantes en el Estrecho de Ormuz, pese al bloqueo iraní. Trump declara que, desde mañana (hora de Oriente Medio), Estados Unidos iniciará la operación “Proyecto Libertad”, en la que buques mercantes que quedaron “varados” por el bloqueo iraní recibirán escolta de la Armada estadounidense para poder salir de la zona del Golfo Pérsico, rompiendo así el cerco iraní. El presidente lo presenta como una acción humanitaria y advierte que, si Irán intenta interferir, la situación será respondida “con medidas contundentes”. ¡El potencial de fricción es alto!

@pmags30 @willchamberlain Except Iran still has a say. They can launch an offensive and strike soft targets in the GCC states which will take years for the economy to right itself.

@willchamberlain Amazing. So few realize the war is already won and that it's only a matter of how much longer it continues and exactly how it ends. But, IT'S OVER...and has been for a bit now.

This is game over. Iran either has to accept the loss of the Strait of Hormuz or become the party that breaks the ceasefire (which would lead to an overwhelming military response)

@willchamberlain Will be interesting if ships take the risk or wait for others to be the first ones escorted out.

@The_FJC Who leaves the Gulf of Oman is controlled by the US. So far who goes into the Strait has been controlled by Iran. Let’s see how Operation Freedom goes and if US warships transit the Gulf and escort ships out.

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. 20% of the world's oil passes through it daily. Trump's blockade controls it. Iran built 40 years of regional power on that strait. Trump shut it down in 60 days. That's American strength. Full stop.

@MarioNawfal What about the plutonium. Reported by John Bolton to be enough for 200 warheads. They therefore aren’t reliant on uranium

🚨 BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran has agreed to put its nuclear program on the table in talks with the U.S. - Tehran has proposed capping uranium enrichment at 3.5%, well below weapons-grade - Iran has also offered to gradually reduce its existing stockpile of enriched uranium - This marks a significant shift from previous positions Source: Al Arabiya

@jackprandelli Other key numbers: US consumes 20.5 mbpd We import 7mbpd with 20% of that coming from Strait of Hormuz. We are now exporting more than 6.5mbpd. These are coming from our reserves which is pushing up US pricing.

🇺🇸 US OIL & GAS • 46B barrels of proved oil reserves. • Permian Basin alone: 6.6M b/d. More than any OPEC producer except 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia • Total US output: 13.6M b/d → 🇷🇺 Russia: 9.1M → 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 9.3M Gas is even more decisive: • 43.2 Tcf produced in 2025 • 25% of global supply • More than 🇷🇺 Russia + 🇮🇷 Iran combined

@TomKopen3 @jackprandelli Iran has never exported 3.5 million. The tank trucks turn around time is about 6 days vs 40-50 days for the large carriers. Add in the railcars and they have added weeks before their storage is full.

@jackprandelli Let's do some math 1 car like this would be around 500 barrels.. 70 of those = 35 000 That is 1% of the daylx production. Sure it helps a bit but on its own it is rather desperate move.

Iraq just found the back door around Hormuz. 70 tankers crossed into Syria yesterday via AlYarubiyah a border that's been shut for 13 years. Destination: Mediterranean ports. The chokepoint isn't a wall. Producers are routing around. The map of Gulf oil is being redrawn by truck, but is more expensive. source: @MarioNawfal

@MericaFurst1 @joelpollak I’m a bot and you post things like that? Of course it matters if we meet our strategic objectives to determine if it was worth it when fighting wars.

@Pattonator2 @joelpollak I think you're a bot, giving bot answers. The idea that Iran is even a country anymore is laughable. Won't matter what "objectives" are met, you won't give Trump credit for it... because you're a bot giving bot opinions

@BrettErickson28 What happens to the rest of the world if we are short 13mbpd for another 60 days?

If I was advising the President, here is the timeline to shut-ins I would put forth: Current Length of Blockade: 20 Days Available On Shore Storage: 7-17 Days Total Tanker Storage: 25-39 Days Additional Extension via Trucking, Un-Mothballing, Rail (Conservatively): 7 Days Total BEST CASE Estimated Timeline: 57-81 Days I would also add this VERY important caveat: "This estimate is an absolute best case scenario. For purposes of planning, I would estimate that Iran has additional measures that they can still take such as infiltrating the blockade, lowering total daily production, and employing additional creative measures (which I will avoid posting to X) in order to potentially extend this timeline indefinitely. It is my assessment that oil well shut-ins are not a viable strategy to force the economic collapse of Iran, and I do not believe that economic hardship will be sufficient to force Iran to capitulate at the negotiating table in a way that produces the desired diplomatic outcomes we have thus far been unable to achieve by kinetic strikes. While the blockade and economic warfare campaign will damage the Iranian economy, it is not a strategy that has a high enough likelihood of success to implement as a primary strategy for the United States."