flyflyeagle
32 posts
@LedgewoodCap do you know what 14x lfcf implies for LT growth expectations?
that is not the multiple for DD growth expectations but rather 2-3%
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I bought $INTU
Seems extremely cheap at mid teens economic earnings, high quality, growing DD, and likely an AI beneficiary.
Quickbooks is 60% of revenue, and growing twice the rate of Turbotax (which itself is still growing Mid to HSD).
What am I missing?
Evergreen@evrgn11112231
Gone for a few days and… Did I resurrect / provoke @GavinSBaker who is now spitting fire and roasting people in comments all over the place on here lmao 🔥🔥 lol at people freaking out about (or downplaying) $META ’s $RDDT knock off… this is just the beginning (infinite apps thesis inning one)… for those saying “threads was a failure” don’t look now but it’s not? #5 most downloaded app in app store today. The Forum app from Meta is cool but the best part is the “ask” tab which is an ai chatbot that specifically only pulls from the Groups community and can be / likely will be a very interesting standalone chatbot app (AI answers but only summarizing and linking answers given by real people over decades). the Forum app should default to grant you the option for posting under an avatar though vs your real name if the goal is to drive a real engagement step change (same thing should be upfront in threads). re Meta layoffs - the handwringing and entitlement by people on here in the tech ecosystem about this is quite insane… very out of touch group. separately but related - under discussed yet but very interesting phenomenon is Meta’s decision to move 7k engineers to exclusively focus now on AI products and data labeling. Not only are we going to have a workforce greater than the size of anthropic and OAI exclusively focused on building capabilities at scale that no one else really can, but will also get a lot of cheap / forced attrition from toxic employees who think they are too good for this kind of work. Google i/o was super lame and confirmed my views on their inability to ship and that the race to win in consumer / agentic AI has been won (by meta) before it even started I bought a software stock this week. anyone who has followed me on here or known me irl should know how big of a deal that is as i’ve long hated the space broadly. put me officially in the software bull camp now though as my exposure is now larger than my semi exposure. any guess what i bought? will tell in time have work to do first. what else did i miss?
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@MeritumInvest Thank you for your work? How do you see the current timing of the soft market given that carriers still earn outsized ROEs and until that declines we likely won’t the true trough at which point would be the best buying opp for brokers?
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New post today in insurance brokers: "Which horse to pick" - combines our takes on Cycle + AI risk with an overlay of management quality, M&A capabilities and broader business quality (excuse the AI-assisted graph). $AJG $RYAN $BRO $AON $MRSH $WTW - link in bio & below.
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@leevalueroach The business does seem to be at crossroads. No one I trust more than Jeff Green tho. If his vision of cutting out all middlemen in adtech works then $TTD will become the ultimate player in adtech that not even AMZN can rival.
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The Trade Desk, Inc. $TTD looks way too cheap to me here. Still growing. Superior business model. Beaten to shit from growth hogs dumping. Has some issues with Amazon ramping up their DSP and TTD going direct to advertisers to skip the agencies. But overall is too blown out here. What am I missing here?
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flyflyeagle がリツイート
CEO at the MoffattNathanson Conference today explaining why the math doesn’t work for neoclouds. Explained both the supply & demand sides In excruciating detail.
On same panel was a guy from $CRWV who was scrambling to follow the math.
I’m told it was quite funny.
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flyflyeagle がリツイート
Databricks is possibly in the worst possible position for IPO. They would enter the SaaS market segment right now. Best pivot is probably to build out their own datacenters and become a neocloud. Hard to hang on to the valuation this year.
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What’s the pros/cons of AMD acquiring Cerebras. Google/Marvell seems to show that everyone needs low-latency in their inference stacks.
It seems to me that the only way that AMD is truly able to compete against NVIDIAs full stack is to make their own.
Why aren’t they acquiring Cerebras?
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@DividendTalks it's always weird when dividend and buyback guys starting hyping up tech names like UBER
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Everyone says “quality stocks” are expensive.
That’s not what I’m seeing.
8 high-quality names trading at reasonable multiples:
$UBER - 19x
$META - 20x
$MSFT - 21x
$SE - 22x
$V - 23x
$MELI - 25x
$MA - 26x
$AMZN - 26x
These aren’t low-quality businesses.
They’re market leaders.
One of these is clearly mispriced.
Which one are you buying… and which one is the trap?
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I asked ChatGPT to make me a ''dogshit'' portfolio. This is what he made:
$NVO – hype hangover
$LULU – momentum broken
$NKE – brand weak, stock weak
$PYPL – turnaround forever
$ADBE – AI loser
$DIS – restructure season 99
$INTC – comeback loading...
$BA – headline risk
$BABA – value trap vibes
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Weakness in memory stocks per Mizuho TMT is the result of $NVDA’s plans to release a new inference chip, which suggests the chip may require a lower-cost memory configuration, particularly avoiding HBM in favor of SRAM
$SNDK, $MU, $WDC are getting smoked in addition to Korea, led lower by SK Hynix and Samsung
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How is $RELY going to survive structural take rate compression? Only so many costs they can cut.
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@raberos89 @joecarlsonshow Really? The amount of debt they’re taking + shittier UI and general ad infra. They need to get way too many subs to survive first 1-3 years
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This is hilarous. I thought Netflix would up their bid, maybe another 5-10%. But they said "nah, we'll just take the $2.8 billion and walk away."
Now Paramount is left with the largest leverage buyout in history while Netflix is printing cash.
Netflix should immedietly turn back on the buyback machine and pick up as many shares as possible under $100.
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Block is laying off people because their business sucks, not because of AI.
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@GoldenLacLLC This whole PANW/Chrono overhang was nonsense. Clear observability winner
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Important tweet:
Just had a discussion with a credible source, Anthropic is indeed the AI customer $DDOG talked about
$DDOG's revenue acceleration is going to be out of this world for the next 3-4 quarters
Needed to tweet this given what I shared the last couple of days..
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@HarryStebbings @illscience Why do we assume those are mutually exclusive?
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Is SaaS Dead? Will We Vibe Code Everything? @illscience
" If you look at SaaS spend today, it's 8%-12% of enterprise spend.
Even if you vibe coded your ERP and your payroll with all of the kind of risks and dangers that entails, you're gonna save 8%-12%.
You have this innovation bazooka with these models. Why would you point it at Rebuilding Payroll or ERP or CRM?
You're going to take it and use it to extend your core advantage as a business, or you're gonna take it to optimize the other 90% that you're not spending on software today."
Do you agree with this @tobi @Bouazizalex @maorshlomo @alanchanguk? What is worth building yourself vs not?
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings
“We are not allowed to believe in luck at a16z. We must see every deal in our domain. We must win 100% of them. I have not lost a deal in 6 years”. It has never been a more uncertain time to be an investor. - Is SaaS dead? - Do margins matter? - Is triple, triple, double, double dead? - Will foundation models eat the apps layer? Spotify 👉 open.spotify.com/episode/3dG8Mt… Youtube 👉 youtu.be/Aq0JSbuIppQ Apple Podcasts 👉 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/20v… My 8 takeaways with @illscience 👇 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Why building an AI company requires being in San Francisco 04:01 The "SaaS Apocalypse" myth: Why "vibe coding" everything is a lie 05:18 How AI agents are finally breaking the lock-in of legacy software providers 07:41 Incumbents vs. Startups: Who actually wins the AI distribution war? 12:28 Why the developer tool market looks more like Cloud than Uber and Lyft 20:18 The death of the Chatbox? Why browse-based interfaces are still preferable 25:32 Why power users are 10x more valuable in the age of AI consumption 26:40 Do margins matter in a world of AI? 28:21 Why we are definitively not in an AI bubble right now 31:07 Why the Legal & Customer Support industries will have dozens of winners 37:42 Lessons from Marc Andreessen: Why the "quality of being right" supersedes process 42:59 Is "Triple, Triple, Double, Double" dead? 57:34 Open vs Closed Source 01:02:58 Is Kingmaking Real? 01:09:10 Quick-Fire Round 01:12:51 The a16z Playbook: How to win 100% of the deals you chase
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I see a lot of Bill Gates news and Microsoft is down big - what happened?
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Lol. Come on guys, it can’t really be a Jefferies upgrade driving a >5% move in a $1T+ market cap.
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