Kaes Van't Hof
1.6K posts


Got to chat at @NeeleySchoolTCU with the Man today. @KVanthof Even quoted @therealmix
Got the selfie even though we both look confused.

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In simplest terms, Trump commentary was much more hawkish than where consensus moved in the past 2 days. If bombing going another 2-3 weeks, any sort of normalcy is months away…and the oil market tightens every single day. 2027/2028 oil is too cheap. As are energy stocks #EFT.
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I’m not sure there is a stable of golfers at a club in Texas that could hang with our ten best at Shady Oaks in Fort Worth.
(In no particular order)
Chad Campbell
Jesse Speirs
Adam Rubinson
Leon Brothers (Trent and Tyler)
Colton Williams
Tom Hoge
Paul Barjon
Martin Piller
Myself
Will Osborne, Blake Vinson, Jordan Woolf, John Grace, Beau Davis, Garrison Lackey, Jeff Mixon
I’d put our crew up against anyone!
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@JoshYoung @trend_bullish Currie has been bullish since early January at Goldman at least
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Jeff Currie on Iran, volatility and opportunities in undervalued assets ... youtu.be/q4kWgtIplmA?si… via @YouTube

YouTube
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Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island.
The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy.
This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly.
Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate).
Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait.
Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections.
As I've argued in many other posts, Trump cannot simply declare victory and pull out (TACO). That would be worse. It would leave Iran in control of the world's economic jugular, allowing it to punish everyone by permanently holding oil at $200. So, they must force Iran to relent.
Again, these are just the thoughts running through my head as I try to explain to myself why they took this step.
The White House@WhiteHouse
“Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island... Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it!" - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸
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Kaes Van't Hof 리트윗함

Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. youtu.be/Au6Exwc2R6s?si…

YouTube
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@GringoInvesting Way less hedging this time around in the US at least
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Kinda weird that I haven't seen a single person asking which oil producers are unhedged (and therefore able to take advantage of the spike).
Maybe it's happening and I'm just missing it?
Gringo Investments@GringoInvesting
I've seen a few posts now calling for a cycle top in oil - even a coming oil crash. I haven't seen a single post the entire week asking which oil producers are unhedged and most exposed to the price spike.
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@KVanthof we haven’t met but got to tell you, that letter was STRONG. I have often said only only Chris Wright was using his platform appropriately - pre Energy Secretary to make the Oil and Gas industry great again. If I missed it. I apologize because I should have included you in that list as well.
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The bull case is more appealing
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
It's Too Obvious. What If AI Doesn't Actually End The World? Read our article and change your perspective:
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