Lurch

There goes housing: New Home Sales 587K, Exp. 722K, down 17.6%

Nobody tells you this when you pick a career. Every profession has a different finish line. Athlete - peak is 24. Retired before 30. The sport moves on before the body does. Model - peak is 22. Career lasts 3-5 years. The industry finds your replacement before you find yourself. Soldier - prime at 26. The body starts losing the argument at 35. Twenty years in and the pension follows you out. Airline Pilot - spends 20 years in a co-pilot seat. Reaches captain in their 40s. Mandatory retirement at 65. Surgeon - peak performance is 35-50. It takes a decade of training just to get in the room. Hands and eyes start losing the margin for error after 65. Lawyer - peaks at 50. The courtroom rewards experience. Every year you practice, the credential compounds. Plumber / Electrician - peaks at 50. Recessions, AI, outsourcing, none of it can reach them. Landlord - no peak. Tenants pay the mortgage while you sleep. Investor - Buffett made 95% of his wealth after turning 65. Most people think it's too late by then. Most people pick a career without knowing where it actually leads. Know the game before you decide to play it.

Chamath explains Warren Buffett’s secret to success: “Markets thrive when there's information asymmetry” “Now I'm gonna get a lot of people really upset with me.” “This is an example of Warren Buffet's returns pre- and post-Reg FD. Now what do you see?” “His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal.” “And the minute that it became illegal and you had to act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha. In fact, he probably, on the margins, lost a little bit.” “So this is the single best investor in the world. This is what happens when you have information symmetry.” “So it's just meant to explain that markets thrive when there's asymmetry. Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry.” “The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market pre-Reg FD, and there's nothing we can do except choose not to bet it, because otherwise what you're going to have are a ton of sharps taking advantage of a ton of squares.”

I predicted S and X would be discontinued. Still sad to see them go. I’m a bit surprised they’re building Optimus in Commiefornia.

I think a lot of y'all don't understand the point of the $200/month Claude Code plan. It isn't an attempt to make a profit. It's a marketing expense. Those plans LOSE money. Sure, 80% of users will do less than $200 of inference. The top ones will go WAY over. It's easy to do $1000+ of inference on that plan. The people who do that become evangelists. They post about it. They tell their friends and coworkers about it. They become marketers. That marketing is only valuable if it drives lock-in. If they evangelize the $200/month Claude Code plan this week, and the OpenAI one next week, the spend was a loss. If they get locked into Claude Code and the Anthropic Agents SDK, Anthropic no longer has to have the "best model" to make their money.

still have 12 days left! 🙃

Sorry ladies, you're on your own. 🤷‍♂️ Welcome to the jungle.