Peter Carpenter

@mdubowitz Exactly how is it vital to the U.S.? How much oil do you think we get from the region?

President Trump must know that Hormuz is vital to American national and economic security. To think otherwise would be a catastrophic error.

@MichaelPBento @CryptKeeper_06 You prove the Dunning - Kruger theorem

@CryptKeeper_06 Israel is getting flattened, and we have lost 13 bases in addition to the energy crisis that we have still yet to see the knock on effects of read through to inflation. I’d say Iran is in a pretty fucking comfortable place right now strategically on balance.

Someone want to explain to me why this is bearish for oil? Because it sounds to me like it’s max bullish for oil prices.

@Kalewakid @VP1985_CA @TheStalwart You won’t live to see the USD replaced as the world’s reserve currency. None of us will live that long

@1PeterCarpenter @VP1985_CA @TheStalwart Follow the dollar. 40T in debt with oil trading in another currency is the death of dollar.

Futures jumping on that WSJ headline

@JJCarrell14 Sorry but the soldier in that video isn’t deploying.

Sending our boys to fight for Israel again never gets old! I guess we haven’t spent enough money, wasted enough time or lost enough of our sons in the Middle East! Just wondering: How many Israelis have died in these wars?

@VP1985_CA @TheStalwart Even if that happened, why would the U.S. economy crash? We don’t need oil from the region

@TheStalwart Which makes zero sense. If the strait doesn't open, the GCC countries will make deals with Iran and the US economy will crash.

@elyasandkhoy @unusual_whales This might be the dumbest tweet I’ve read today. Well done.

@unusual_whales And us the opposite. That's what happens when we pick fights with strong people for no legit reason.

Iran could emerge from the war stronger and more dangerous, per FT

@FiatElpis @traderhc You’re simply wrong. They can’t just “forgo it”

@traderhc It's not that mechanical they can and should forgo it as we are heading into the most dangerous weekend of the last 250 sessions.

Pension funds are about to do what retail won't. Buy stocks into a wall of fear. Tomorrow is March 31. Quarter-end rebalancing day. Equities got crushed this quarter while bonds rallied. Any fund targeting 60/40 is now underweight stocks vs their mandate. They don't get to have opinions. They rebalance mechanically. This mechanical bid lands into a market where dealers are short over $7B in gamma on $SPY alone. That means every move gets amplified. CTAs are sitting on 344K net short contracts. If price reclaims certain levels, their algorithms flip and start buying too. You get forced pension buying triggering dealer hedging triggering CTA covering. Dominoes. $SPY closed at 631. Put wall sits right here at 630. Gamma flip is up at 653. I think we see 645 to 655 this week before reality reasserts itself. The last three times sentiment dropped below 10 on the Fear & Greed index, the next 30 days averaged over 4% gains. Not because things got better. Because positioning was too one-sided. None of this changes the recession. Dallas Fed just missed again. Oil at 105 is choking consumers. Friday's NFP is the real test. But the most violent rallies happen when nobody wants to be long and the plumbing forces buying anyway. Where does $QQQ end the week? I'm watching that 568 high from today as first resistance. Love to see it

@ItsDecado @BillAckman Account based in Germany

I am 28 years old, and I have lived my entire life suffocating under the Islamic Republic. I am writing this from the streets of Tehran, nearly a month into a war, and let me tell you a truth that the outside world cannot seem to comprehend: My biggest fear right now is not the missiles. My paralyzing, everyday terror is walking out my front door and hitting an IRGC checkpoint. It is the sickening knot in my stomach when the people I love step outside, knowing they might get dragged away by these monsters. Nothing is, was, or ever will be worse than this regime. You cannot convince me otherwise. I am bleeding myself dry. I spend every ounce of my energy and money fighting this digital blackout, buying VPN after VPN just to force a connection through so I can be the voice of my people. And what do I see when I finally get online? Analysts sitting safely abroad telling us, *"You haven't tried all the paths yet!"* Are you out of your minds? The last "path" we took, over 40,000 of us didn't come home. On that path, a live bullet flew centimeters past my ear and right past the head of the most precious person in my life. I almost lost my best friend forever on that asphalt. What goddamn path is left to take? Why do you trample on the spilled blood of my compatriots? Why do you spend your time fighting Crown Prince @PahlaviReza instead of listening to a crushed, bleeding nation? Last night, I watched his speech. Do you know what I felt? Relief. The profound relief of hearing an honorable man echo the exact pain and demands of his people, with more precision than anyone else. And I felt pride. I felt absolute pride in the truth, structure, and beauty of his words. Do you know how heartbreaking it is that pride is a foreign, alien emotion for an Iranian today? He gave that back to us. We screamed his name with all our might. 40,000 of our fallen heroes signed his leadership with their own blood. Stop fighting our choice. Listen to us.

@dampedspring I haven’t seen a mkt trade down every single day like this since the GFC.

Tell me about the pain trade?

@BigGoy_4 @ChazzonKe @StateDept LMAO - you’re in Bulgaria. STFU and sit down

@1PeterCarpenter @ChazzonKe @StateDept Here's the part you're missing - neither do you. Iran is ass-raping you right now.

🚨 SECRETARY RUBIO: If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, then that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States.

@Lemondankkk @ChazzonKe @StateDept So you think NATO could defend the U.S. ? LMAO.

@1PeterCarpenter @ChazzonKe @StateDept If that’s true then why would Trump want their help or be mad when they don’t provide it? Use your brain for 5 seconds

@ChazzonKe @StateDept Here’s the part you’re missing. NATO doesn’t have any meaningful military capability. They are free riders

What part of "defensive coalition" do you not understand. The one and only time a NATO member involved Article 5 (America) NATO came full force into war with us. If you wanted NATO involvement, you should have considered that BEFORE starting the war. Coordinated with allies, not started global trade wars, received buy-in, and THEN start the war. You don't get to cry and moan at NATO for y'all's unilateral actions. You didn't care what NATO thought when you clowns thought this would end in 24-48 hours.

@StateDept @SecRubio I was always a NATO supporter. But the more I look at it, the more I feel the ISA gets absolutely nothing from the agreement

@DaveHcontrarian @pipedreams24 @respeculator What all these new expert oil traders don’t realize is the move down is typically 10x more violent than the move higher. Traded oil derivatives for 25 yrs. Some are going to learn a tough lesson when the mkt turns

@pipedreams24 @respeculator At that time, oil was $85 & almost everyone was bullish oil. I was a lonely bear & said so. It fell to $55. That was a great call.

I don’t know why y’all be dunking on this guy @respeculator

@SixSigmaCapital Yeah - it’s about the $$ not the nuclear threat. You’re a moron

The USA is spending 2B a day for around $100,000 worth of Uranium LOL

@NajamAli2020 Yeah sure - they’ll step aside and not worry about the strait being closed. Your worldview is that of a 10 yr old

After Trump’s latest threats to obliterate Iran’s civilian infrastructure, the mediating countries should step aside and take a pause. Let him directly sort out the mess he has created.

@ces921 It’s amazing to me that people remain unable to understand how Trump acts/speaks/influences every policy/action he implements. I find the man intolerable at times. But you sound like a 10 yr old girl. The manufactured drama is exhausting

Madman Theory has been activated.

@FurkanGozukara LMAO - Iran isn’t destroying anything

Iran's military genius exposed. Instead of fighting American fighter jets directly, they are systematically destroying the radars, tankers, and command hubs that keep them in the air. The Pentagon is completely defenseless against this asymmetric masterclass.

@ramsfanus7 @LukeGromen @adamscrabble Your failure to understand it’s not a binary choice is disappointing.

@1PeterCarpenter @LukeGromen @adamscrabble So being on the world stage and doing what we have been doing for the last 50 years is more important than taking care of the people living in our country? Being the world's police hasn't worked out well for us. Im sorry that your take is that view is of a 10 year old girl.

You people are afraid to win a war. Amazing Sometimes, sadly, endless wars have to be won

@ElyasWahyain @TukiFromKL L

@1PeterCarpenter @TukiFromKL Alternative is believing Trump.

🚨 let me explain what Iran's Parliament Speaker just said because most people are going to miss it.. he told investors: "pre-market news is a reverse indicator.. if they pump it, short it.. if they dump it, go long.. see something tomorrow? you know the drill".. he's telling the world that America's market-moving headlines are manufactured.. that the news you wake up to tomorrow morning was designed to move your money in a specific direction.. and that he knows which direction because he knows what's coming.. think about what that actually means.. the Speaker of Iran's Parliament.. a country currently at war with the United States.. just went on the internet and told the entire world how to trade against American news cycles.. you think its because he's generous.. its because making retail investors distrust US markets IS the weapon.. you don't need to bomb Wall Street if you can convince the world it's already rigged.. and the most terrifying part of all of this..is that he's not wrong.