APOideas

saṃsāra is a lifestyle

@mattparlmer is this what you get when you don't spend trillions on war? you spend trillions evolving the technological infrastructure of your future society?

This is the solution to the shortfall in skilled trades

@shinobu_books how can i purchase this place?

Abandoned resort on Oyo island between Shikoku and Okayama. Currently population 2 (retired couple) The resort was built in 1988 at the peak of the bubble and didn’t last.

Nature is a Song, by Sister Irene O'Connor: youtube.com/watch?v=nlw-4p…

Nature’s Heartbeat : Gross Primary Production (GPP) of the biosphere on land throughout the year

"not a container, but a layer". very well said. And even if we were "in a simulation" that means we would be, each individually, a self-coherent (Markov-bound) entity interacting with the "real" machine within which we exist, which would afford us agency to (eventually) interact with the "real" world. And of course, the simulation theory ultimately just displaces all existential questions behind a false curtain of otherness. It is not in itself explanatory.

I have never understood what the difference is between being in a simulation, and not being in a simulation. I don’t understand how they are supposed to be mutually exclusive, or even different? A simulation isn’t a container, it’s a layer. Reality exists both inside it and outside of it. Chess is a simulation of a battle, your pre frontal cortex runs a world model simulation through which you devise control protocols for your body, dreams are this simulation engine running with the sensory system unplugged. Other people are able to simulate you in their own minds. These simulations are accurate enough to predict your responses and behaviours. So what agency do you actually have, if other people can predict you so accurately? If I can predict all of your chess moves to the end of the game, is the higher fidelity representation of you the manifest atoms across the board from me, or the simulation of you in my PFC? You simultaneously exist in many simulations and reality all at the same time. This is true of many things not just people. In one sense reality isn’t even real, it’s just a communication network for a constellation of simulations to exchange information. Anyway, normal service will resume soon, back to posting about hulls, pipelines, reactors and metallurgy.

@DefenderOfBasic Karl Friston et al. maintian all things are indeed processes (unfolding at different scales)

What makes a "thing" a thing is its relative frequency. Fast activity can perceive slow activities. Slow activities cannot (easily) perceive faster activities (or perceive them as "multiple distinct things")

@InferenceActive Reading 2022 version is like being a being an ancestral basal chordate in the Late Cambrian—nice, cozy, respectably cognitive, but ngmi

It is 542 pages & slightly larger than the 2022 textbook.

@helixbase @ns123abc 👏🏼 Bravo 👏🏼

🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…

@Object_Zero_ China.

Naval Construction It’s increasingly likely we’re going to see an increase in naval construction as a means of delivering large swarms to a given theatre. It’s quite possible to build warships with 100,000 tonnes of displacement. It’s easy for such a vehicle to transport 10 million drones. Drones are superior to guns (on precision) and superior to missiles (on economics). Drones combine the economics of shells, with the precision of missiles. The challenge with drones is delivery into range. Naval construction is how this will be solved for many militaries. Someone is going to build the first swarm carrier and it might be a submarine version, an SSND. Increasingly what is going to matter is who has the tightest iteration cycles. Who can incorporate new technologies and platforms the fastest?

@aesposito__ @Object_Zero_ China builds commercial ships like tankers to military spec (e.g. deck thickness) so they can be converted over in wartime.

@Object_Zero_ i cant get out of my head that there’s a billion $ opportunity for a dark shipyard company: ship and shipyard designed from the ground up for automated welding, automotive level process efficiency. question is what you do with all these ships during peaceful times

@oldbooksguy The Peregrine, by JA Baker (1967)

What's a book you consider a masterpiece?

@aphysicist i read this is as "buddhist industrialists" would appreciate that list too. thanks

here is a definitive reading list for budding reindustrialists: phase 1: operations & optimization: the toyota way lean principles, waste elimination, management systems, and continuous improvement for building efficient, high-quality production. the goal a practical introduction to bottlenecks, throughput, and flow through the lens of theory of constraints. factory physics a rigorous foundation for understanding queues, variability, capacity, and the behavior of real production systems. the machine that changed the world a foundational book on lean production and the evolution of modern manufacturing systems. sources of increased efficiency in the dupont rayon plants a close look at industrial productivity, management, and operational efficiency inside a major american manufacturing system. phase 2: scaling & historical inspiration: freedom’s forge industrial mobilization, production scaling, and wartime coordination at national scale. my life and work firsthand perspective on mass production, vertical integration, simplification, and industrial philosophy. my years with general motors management, decentralization, strategy, and organizational design inside one of america’s great industrial firms. behemoth a history of giant factories and the role they played in shaping industrial civilization. arsenal of democracy the transformation of american industry toward war production, with lessons in speed, conversion, and manufacturing scale. the deindustrialization of america an account of industrial decline, disinvestment, and the structural forces that weakened american manufacturing. reindustrialization of america a period view on rebuilding industrial capacity and restoring productive strength in the united states. kochland a study of industrial power, corporate systems, and one of the most consequential private industrial empires in america. phase 3: strategic context & modern realities: chip war semiconductors, geopolitics, and the strategic importance of advanced industrial supply chains. apple in china a close look at supply chains, industrial concentration, manufacturing capability, and the strategic consequences of offshoring advanced production. made in the usa materials, energy, production systems, and the physical realities behind large-scale manufacturing. energy and civilization broad historical context on how energy systems underpin industrial growth and civilizational scale. where’s my flying car? a case for technological ambition, industrial acceleration, and the lost momentum of physical progress. science mart an examination of how science, markets, and institutions reshaped american innovation. discovery-driven growth a strategy framework for navigating uncertainty while building ambitious new ventures. phase 4: finance, economics & capital allocation: economics in one lesson a compact introduction to economic reasoning, incentives, and second-order effects. “the curse of machinery” is especially relevant for industrialists thinking about productivity, labor, and industrial progress. the outsiders capital allocation, CEO decision-making, buybacks, acquisitions, decentralization, and how exceptional operators think like owners. investment banking a practical guide to valuation, deal structure, and the financial mechanics behind acquisitions, leverage, and strategic transactions. distressed debt analysis credit, restructuring, downside analysis, and how to think through broken balance sheets and mispriced industrial assets. bonus: steelhead job shop playbook practical lessons on quoting, sales, operations, workforce, and growth for metal and job-shop businesses. ben einstein’s blog and writings practical lessons from hardware startups, manufacturing execution, and company building. skunk works lessons in innovation, speed, engineering culture, and rapid development under intense constraints.

@ToeMateusz Very interesting, sir. May I DM you?

To Casimir effect fans: if anything can use vacuum energy, it's likely a biological system, which we now know leverage myriad quantum effects. Microtubules are good candidates. Inner pore diameter is 15nm. Dielectric. Resonant. Possibly diamagnetic/superconducting. Spooky.

@TimUPLend @Giovann35084111 Tag me when you finish :)

@Giovann35084111 ok then I need to check how you defined the label. Could be that the signal came too late to be useful, ie, the market has already gone up/down a lot.

You can build a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) using the slopes of Bitcoin’s growth to identify and predict three regimes: bullish, transition, and bearish. In preliminary tests, this approach can classify the regime with around 90% accuracy. Below is a link to a Veritasium video that explains how Hidden Markov Models work and why they are powerful tools for prediction problems. HMMs are widely used in quantitative finance; notably, variations of this technique were reportedly among the methods employed by Jim Simons’ Medallion Fund, one of the most successful trading strategies in history.

@LukeGromen it looks like traffic has at least partially re-commenced? marinevesseltraffic.com/HORMUZ-STRAIT/…

This is the only metric that matters in determining who is "winning" and "losing" the war. If this chart looks like this for another couple weeks, physics + financial leverage make it a certainty that global equity and bond markets will be smoking craters.

@EthicalSkeptic can't wait

Finished Author's Manuscript 😎 395 pages 90,765 words 133 analyses/figures 373 footnote recitations

@InThePrice @peruvian_bull Do you have other numbers, sir? Thank you 🙌🏼

japan can’t absorb this. every dollar higher in crude is a direct tax on their entire economy. energy costs spike, import bills explode, the trade deficit widens, and the yen weakens further, which makes the energy imports even MORE expensive. it’s a doom loop. weak yen makes oil more expensive in yen terms, which worsens the trade deficit, which weakens the yen further. if oil stays above $90 and the Strait stays shut, the BoJ has to choose between defending the yen (hike rates, blow up the JGB market and the carry trade) or letting it crash (import costs spiral, inflation rips through the economy).

@Object_Zero_ I cannot wait to read it in full.

OK, been promising this for 3 weeks now. It’s become a thermodynamic framework for a civilisation living under a star. I think I have maybe [21] articles here. Will post them with full LaTeX formulations, fully cited axioms, theorems, definitions, postulations, etc. Full logic graph. This will be a challenging read for most people, feel free to use your preferred LLM to bounce it off. Probably I should publish Part 1->5, then the wrapper content (exec summary, nomenclature, bibliography, etc). I’m not sure how easy it will be to follow on X. I’ll make a pdf or markdown available to some people soon after, if you’re interested. Any pointers at this point welcome.

@JacobAShell @antlerboy The machine-worn jeans of urban architecture

Baudrillard had a fine point about Centre Pompidou, that many of its exterior pipes and "guts" are nonfunctional and decorative. So it pretends to be more "open" and "honest" than a traditional Parisian building, but is actually more deceitful.

@mrjeffu @alwayslearni @CJHandmer can I stand up a @TerraformIndies branch in Japan and start pulling natgas from the sky?

The Japanese government has stated that they have 254 days of oil reserves. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period due to the ongoing war, it will be a very serious problem for Japan's economy.

incan child: mom, can we get a writing system? incan mother: we have a writing system at home the writing system: