@DanNeidle Fascinating stuff. I notice you don't really mention Brexit which kicked in at the same time as Covid. Other than via a modest growth impact, is that relevant in any way?
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Aidan Boustred
909 posts
Aidan Boustred
@AidanBoustred
Trying to understand the world better
Katılım Ocak 2014
760 Takip Edilen41 Takipçiler
If you want to delve further into the data, there's an expanded version of this thread here with pretty interactive charts where you can select different countries and explore the detail. Full methodology and sources. taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/04/29/why…
I'd love to be wrong on all this.
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UK tax is going to be the highest since 1945. But public spending won't increase; in fact most of us will experience a decline in public services.
Here's why - in a thread that I'd love to be completely wrong.
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@worstall @DanNeidle @danielgoyal In proper MMT (that's 'proper' as in 'proper socialism', but with MMT) the growth from the spending will mean you don't need to raise tax rates. So don't think that the UK's disastrous position in any way discredits MMT, because this wasn't proper MMT.
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@DanNeidle @danielgoyal Well, we've proven Modern Monetary Theory at least. Spending comes first, taxes later.....
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So basically, the Tories “spent” so much during the early pandemic that we are now stuck paying off that debt!
Taxes up to pay for the Tory pillaging of public money (debt) and Johnson’s spectacular incompetence!
Prosecutions and asset recovery now!
Dan Neidle@DanNeidle
UK tax is going to be the highest since 1945. But public spending won't increase; in fact most of us will experience a decline in public services. Here's why - in a thread that I'd love to be completely wrong.
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@JimmySecUK @CraigMurrayOrg I'm not convinced that Craig Murray can distinguish between real and imaginary sufficiently well to be deliberately lying.
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@CraigMurrayOrg None of this is true. But did you know Craig Murray is a pathological liar?
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Did you know Ukraine was the third largest importer of Bentleys in Europe in 2025?
Did you know that Ukraine imported 15 of the new £600,000 Rolls Royce Spectres?
Did you know Ukraine imports more supercars than Russia?
I wonder where the money comes from and who drives them?
Bloomberg@business
Ukraine will finally start receiving a €90 billion ($106 billion) loan from the European Union after Hungary lifted its veto bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@SRFielding72 @DPJHodges If I was that civil servant, I would have interpreted the timescale pressure as implied pressure to say ‘yes’. Robbins doesn’t want to admit any pressure influenced outcome as that would be admitting he didn’t do his job properly. And he’s not stupid.
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One thing people need to understand. No.10 trying to influence DV is not a run of the mill event. It’s a massive breach of a process that is supposed to protect the national security of the United Kingdom.
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@RoverguyB @DanNeidle It's taking the total amount of "useful stuff" the country produces in a year, and working out what that is equivalent to per person. It's not directly comparable to salaries, so it's only of limited value if that's what you wanted to do.
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@AidanBoustred @DanNeidle So, no allowances for those who do and don't contribute. No allowances for retirees, children , the sick, those under the radar, independently wealthy and don't need to work. The figures are of limited value.
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@RoverguyB @DanNeidle GDP per capita is total GDP divided by population (including children). A society where a smaller % of population work will have higher average earnings compared to GDP per capita. So they aren't quite the same thing. Also GDP would include company profits etc.
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@RoverguyB @DanNeidle That's what I suspected. The OP is about GDP per capita, not average earnings (related but a separate measure). GDP does include self employed income, although it probably is more difficult to measure accurately than PAYE.
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@RoverguyB @DanNeidle This is a measure of GDP, which is definitely supposed to include the self employed. Where are you getting this info?
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@DanNeidle During austerity public services, who are in PAYE, received a low or zero pay award, stunting pay growth. There's your route problem. The private sector self employed generally received better pay but this was and isn't reported.
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@sfrantzman The routs were scripted in that a proportion (a quarter?) of the side chosen to lose had to run away on a given signal. It wasn’t spontaneous.
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Can't proper discipline and training reduce the fact that it seems almost everyone ran away in most of these examples?
Hei Wa Wa@yaqobhyndes
This group of French researchers (Sur le champ) trained about 200 re-enactors to test the crowd dynamics of hoplite warfare and routing more generally. It's really interesting how the often frustratingly vague statements of ancient writers become clear with this footage
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@gillysuit21 @cjsnowdon There can be, but the larger the company, and the more complex the outcome, the harder it is to measure and to incentivise. The private US system isn't particularly efficient either, and European ones also have their problems.
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@AidanBoustred @cjsnowdon There is though because more so in private companies you have accountability for bad outcomes and bad experiences. Not just in court cases but also loss of earnings, bad reviews etc etc.
theres just more consequences.
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@gillysuit21 @cjsnowdon I think you have too much faith in private companies, which tend to have similar issues, albeit usually too a lesser extent. There's basically no strong incentive loop that incorporates either good outcomes or patient satisfaction. That could exist within public ownership.
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@AidanBoustred @cjsnowdon This is called incompetent leadership because this would be glaringly obvious to a private company and they'd fix it instantly.
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@nomad_dissident @andrew_lilico My understanding is that M passed DV because the process merely required that Robbins decide that. SV initially assessed that he should fail but gave Robbins the impression that it could be ok. R misled Stamer about the level of confidence. I
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@andrew_lilico And he never once asked the question "Has Peter Mandelson passed DV?" at any point in the apparently duly followed process.
Is that likely? To me, it does not feel likely, at all.
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Starmer's position is that:
a) Due process was followed in the Mandelson appointment
b) Robbins ought to have told Starmer the DV recommendation was against passing vetting & if he'd been told he wouldn't have appointed Mandelson, & this process failure meant Robbins was fired
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@OurJeeBee @andrew_lilico I think that’s correctly summarising the Starmer position but it begs the question - why does Robbins get sacked for his error of judgement when Starmer, who appears to have made a larger one, get to just make an apology.
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@andrew_lilico The failing was Robbins judgement? The process gave Robbins responsibility to make the decision but does not protect him from making a decision of almost legendary stupidity?
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Aidan Boustred retweetledi
'Much of the essence of building a program is in fact the debugging of the specification.' -- Fred Brooks
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@BenEhrenreich @ProfSteveKeen Stopped millions of people starving though, so not all bad.
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In retrospect, basing the entire global food system on fossil fuels may have been a poor idea.
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@petrolandeco Those two axes are a chart crime. Put them both on one and let’s see how alarming it looks then.
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ABD'de olan aslında bütün dünyayı da yansıtıyor.
Uzun vadede ekonomide emeğin payı azalırken sermayenin payının arttığı çok açık. 1950’lerden 1980’lere kadar kârlar ile emek payı arasında daha dengeli ve dalgalı bir ilişki varken, 1980 sonrası belirgin bir kırılma yaşanıyor. Özellikle 2000’lerden itibaren bu ayrışma hızlanıyor; kârların GSYH içindeki payı yükselirken emek payı sürekli geriliyor. 2020 sonrasında ise fark daha da açılıyor ve kâr payı tarihsel olarak yüksek seviyelere çıkarken emek payı en düşük seviyelere yaklaşıyor.
Bu tablo küreselleşme, üretimin düşük maliyetli ülkelere kayması, otomasyon ve teknolojik dönüşüm, finansallaşma ve sendikaların zayıflaması gibi faktörlerle açıklanabilir. Velhasıl ekonomik büyüme sürse de bu büyümeden alınan pay giderek daha fazla sermayeye kayıyor; bu da gelir dağılımının bozulmasına, orta sınıfın zayıflamasına ve ekonomik dengenin uzun vadede kırılgan hale gelmesine yol açıyor.
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@WalkerMarcus @mr_james_c I don’t think billionaires typically get much of their income from wages, so this wouldn’t really affect them. It’s only going to hit the very top end of managers, and there really aren’t many of them. Also expect plenty of loopholes around perks and share options.
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65% of the British public will just love the taxes they have to pay to make good the taxes of the billionaires they drive away.
Politics UK@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: 65% of Brits support the Green Party's policy of capping CEO pay at ten times the pay of the lowest paid employee
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@worstall How could things be run other than "politics"? The civil service, as an impartial class of experts who do sensible things, doesn't seem to be working out any better than "do populist nonsense".
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@AidanBoustred That it's so politically popular, this bad idea, is a problem with politics as a way of running things, no?
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Subsidising demand when facing supply constraints is not a good idea, no. So Help to Buy was a bad idea. Whocouddaknowed? adamsmith.org/blog/help-to-b…
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