AlexanderHa

@grant_melson imho merge asap, instead of in 2-3 years. Robotaxi und Optimus will still take years to bring significant earnings, we are trading at 400PE and we are seeing right now how slowly robotaxis are being deployed

Sort the comments by number of likes and you’ll find that most do not want a merge right now (or soon) such is the case right now with many Tesla influencers’ comment sections And yet, we are getting a near unanimous push for “Tesla weak, SpaceX strong, merge now” from larger accounts. So is this bots? Or is it possible there’s an eerie disparity between the unanimous big accounts and split small accounts?

@Barchart ive seen this setup before with AMD

BREAKING 🚨: Nike $NKE falls to its lowest price in almost 12 years 📉📉

@alojoh @HABiBtheDWEEB is tsla actually that lowballed? we are trading at 400pe, even tho i hate this only metric but nonetheless, I think market is very forgiving. Even if robotaxi and optimus ramp, will it take a few years to catch this ratio up, wont it? am i missing sth

@HABiBtheDWEEB None. It removes the ticker that would suffer from attention diversion. Exactly what I would do if I was big E.

What’s the financial reason to merge?

@holemooon @SawyerMerritt SpaceX still is SpaceX

@SawyerMerritt There’s no room to add the AI on my SpaceX tattoo…

SpaceX has officially filed a new trademark application for the wordmark "SpaceXAI" The description says: "Providing satellite-based data center services and orbital computing infrastructure; cloud computing and software as a service (SaaS) featuring AI for data processing, storage, analysis, model training, inference, and AI workload management on satellite constellations and space-based platforms; providing software featuring AI for deploying, scaling, and managing satellite-based data centers and edge computing systems in space; Platform as a service (PAAS) featuring computer software platforms for artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data center operations delivered via satellite networks.." xAI is being dissolved as a separate company, so it'll just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX. SpaceXAI will have a logo.

@CernBasher whats gonna happen with the newly created comp plan? afaik it will "vanish" and the change-in-control clause will take in affect, changing the milestones to market cap

Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI! The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer." On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments. Who could argue with that? I will. (I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time). AI waits for no one First, have you seen how fast AI is moving? How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know. How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know. So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space. The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most. Robotaxi Ramp Issues What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come? What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible? Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi. Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point. Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale." What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for? 1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash. 2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus. 3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car). 4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus. 5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus. 6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this). 7) SpaceX's material science expertise. Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above? - What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI? - What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI? Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus. That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time: - a Robotaxi mile is driven, - an Optimus unit uses Grok, - a vehicle connects through Starlink, - Tesla uses orbital data centers, - or Tesla runs fleet-level inference. So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage. Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever. Pick your poison carefully!

@grok @Xclusiv @abustin thats definetly not scaled correctly

@Xclusiv @abustin Sure! Here's the Sun added to the left, accurately scaled to show its massive size compared to the planets that fit between Earth and the Moon.

The thought of all the planets in the solar system fitting within the distance between Earth and the Moon is always insane to me...

@JonathanGuito I do wonder how far away AI sats are... Probably only a few years? Starship might be ready by then, chips also

None of that happens if Tesla merges with SpaceX. A combined entity is not going to 25x in ten years.

@evilrabbit_ @SpaceX Its good

Full duration and full thrust 33-engine static fire with Super Heavy V3

🔥🔥🔥 Starship Static Fire 🔥🔥🔥

The first V3 Starship flight is going to be so sick.

@levelsio I often think about your statement that we are already living in a "hyperinflation" state.. with products getting worse etc..

The advantage is mine costs $3/mo and the SaaS costs $900/mo

@STRC_live does anyone know if its possible to "short" STRC, or at least keep it down? because i bet some banks have interest to keep it down

$STRC closes at $99.97—day 15 post ex-div, still waiting on par. High of $99.98 today, matching yesterday's closest approach. Now 5 days past the 10.4-day avg recovery. Volume at 2.5M shares. Yield at 11.50%. STRC.live

@Big_Tech_Bull did you find anything? as far as I have understood... as a german resident... in case of a normal tax deferred US merger, it will trigger a taxable event regardless

Hi Alexandra, Larry, and Matt I am researching tax implications of a Tesla/SpaceX merger for international ‘retail’ investors. They could vote against a merger if their home country tax laws are like Korea, Australia or some others. An exact worldwide percentage of 'retail' holders of $TSLA is not publicly knowable with current data. Some long term investors maybe hit with *VERY* large tax bills, and continuing higher tax (Australia has a new system to be brought in giving new, post merger shares, a 47% effective tax when sold, differeing to the current ~22% CGT. Can you read and assess. I understand a cross investment stream between Tesla and SpaceX could have a similar outcome as a merger but without the tax hassles for international holders. Similar to Tesla/XAI Jan 2026 $2 B investment Much information has come from Grok. There is no publicly available, precise figure for the exact percentage of Tesla (TSLA) shareholders worldwide who would face an immediate "profit tax" (i.e., capital gains tax or equivalent on unrealized gains) in the hypothetical merger scenario you describe. Tesla does not disclose a comprehensive geographic breakdown of its beneficial shareholders by tax residency (especially for the large retail portion), Retail/public ownership (roughly 32–36% of shares, plus insiders like Elon Musk at ~11–13%) is global and not tracked by nationality. Tesla is popular with retail investors in the US, Europe, Asia (including China via various channels), and elsewhere. South Korea is a notable example: Korean investors (mostly retail) hold $24–25 billion in TSLA as of early 2026, equating to roughly **2%** of Tesla’s total market cap (Tesla was the most widely held US stock among Koreans). Tax treatment is jurisdiction-specific and depends on the exact merger structure: Shares effectively “sold and reissued,” triggering a tax event assumes a taxable transaction or one treated as a deemed disposition (not a qualifying tax-free reorganization). Real-world mergers can often be structured as tax-free under US rules [But excluded under foreign ownership rules per country, see below, Korea, Australia ATO etc] Taxation falls to the shareholder’s home country, which varies widely: South Korea (≈2% of shares): Explicitly treats overseas stock swaps (like a Tesla → new holding company exchange) as a deemed sale and repurchase. This triggers immediate 22% capital gains tax on profits even if no shares are actually sold. Korea allows deferral for domestic restructurings but not foreign ones. This is the only jurisdiction with prominent public discussion tied directly to a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. [Similar rues to Australia's new ATO Tax on Investments.] Other major countries (EU nations, UK, Canada, Japan, China, Australia, etc.): Rules differ. Many offer deferral or non-recognition for qualifying corporate reorganizations (similar to US §368), especially if the transaction qualifies as tax-neutral in the US. Some tax foreign share gains only on actual sale or have participation exemptions. No widespread reports indicate automatic immediate taxation for a Tesla-SpaceX-style merger in these jurisdictions (unlike Korea). “Consult a tax advisor for any personal situation, as this is hypothetical and complex international tax law.” @nerdalert @TeslaLarry @TeslaBoomerMama

@TomerHacohen @bradsferguson @robotaxi @Tesla Hm... I don't know. On the one side combining would offer synergies and maybe easier expansion, however I would have hoped that the generated cashflow from robotaxi and optimus would have provided the cash for further easier expansion. However might also be far away

Spacex can raise $100b for just 5% dilution. @tesla can’t raise $5b without the stock crashing 10%-30%. The merger is a done deal and the sooner the better if we want $tsla to participate in the spacex S&P inclusion (if we accept a merger offer before 6 months after spacex ipo). Thats funds buying $200b of spacex shares.

Should $TSLA merge with SpaceX before or after Robotaxi value unlock?

@TomerHacohen @bradsferguson @robotaxi fair point, but rn spacex is nowhere near of justifying a 3-4 Tril market cap. Apple right now is at 4 Tril MC with a massive 100 Bil net income ... theres no way spacex gets to those financials in 3-4 years.....

What if $tsla @robotaxi value appreciation will only be in 3-4 years and spacex is a $3-4t company by then? Instead of a 50:50 split tesla shareholders will get only 40% of the combined company. Spacex will ipo or run to $2t-$3t real fast so if $tsla shareholders wants 30%-50% premium offer, they all should accept it. P.s Elon needs only 30% of shareholders voting yes and 15% of them are funds that will get 40% premium in a year and big yearly bonuses. I expect it to pass easily if all funds says yes. @elonmusk

@Rebellionaire Tesla has the biggest and most loyal retail shareholder base, for decades now. And now we should just accept the fait of a merger or getting bought out by spacex? what kind of fever dream is this?

Tesla shareholders funded the robotaxi vision through the hard part. The missed timelines, ridicule, drawdowns, and the “FSD is impossible” years. So if Tesla ever gets folded into SpaceX, the question isn’t “would that be cool?” It’s: who gets paid for the robotaxi value? Bradford breaks it down here.👇

@peterrhague yes I agree on this part. Apple has this moat and should use it

@AlexanderHa_10 Also who is in a position to do local inference better?

If you’re worried about keeping track of all the AI companies, don’t worry, by the end of the year there will only be three and they will be called Apple, Google and SpaceX.

@peterrhague it seems that they use this cash to buy back stocks. 100 Bill to be exact. No acquisitions... and low capex plans

@AlexanderHa_10 They have oodles of cash and control of the front end.