Azimuth Research

Ahead, this week: 5 days. 5 catalysts. This is a monster week for the U.S. economy. Here’s what moves markets. A thread 👉🏼

@FeroceResearch Incredibly interesting point about memory shortage

Last year it was all about finding the bottleneck to the surging demand of GPUs and AI as a whole That resulted in the thesis which I curated for memory, especially $MU Micron Now your core focus should be all about what bottleneck is being created which helps execute on the infrastructure created through your GPUs, CPUs, and Memories. After all, your infrastructure is pointless if it cannot execute flawlessly Most importantly, I expect memory to double from here as well. Meaning, the bottleneck you need to find, must be most applicable to the memory shortage You must always think ahead of the curve before reratings happen There’s such a huge reason why I have constantly kept emphasizing connectivity and CXL Memory pooling for the past weeks Capex continues to flood into the likes of Marvell $MRVL , Astera Labs $ALAB , and Credo $CRDO

@jimcramer Dude. Unexpected? You mean that these companies fell to multi-year lows from AI fears that in many cases are at least paused or unsubstantiated in how they threaten the software companies

This software rally is just so unexpected...it's fueled by massive short covering

@elonmusk @Indian_Bronson We just also have to reproduce much faster than the bottom 5-10%, too

@Indian_Bronson Worked like a charm. Time to return to this approach.

250 years of continuously extinguishing the bottom ~2% of men who could not behave produced the modern Englishman and Anglo-American , who from the early 1700s to early 2000s almost entirely created the modern world.

@FeroceResearch Many such cases

Apparently everyone was long Micron $MU at the bottom and called for it to hit $1,000 this year, and you should follow them! Don’t worry, I took receipts of everyone lol I just choose not to release them

@danielisdizzy Nah. People are gonna lose their pants within days of these IPOs. Maybe investing in them after initial FOMO period wears off

Jensen Huang says that investing in the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will be like buying $AMZN, $GOOGL, or $META in their early stages. Don't become a victim of FOMO. IPO day is not where the best opportunities are made. In many cases, there's a massive spike followed by a sharp decline that takes the stock below its IPO price. Just look at $META. After its 2012 IPO, the stock lost more than 50% of its value within three months. The best opportunities come when the hype is gone, sentiment turns negative, and nobody wants to touch the stock. That's when I'll be buying heavy.

Hey computa, stop letting $NBIS double in size every two months

Hey computa, thanks for tanking $RKLB and letting me cover my puts

@fivepointscap Yes -- but I'm among the biggest SE stans out there

@AzimuthRsrch What do you mean by drawback? The stock price fell?

I would argue that right now is a great time to be contrarian in the market. With AI hardware mopping up all the capital, huge opportunities have been created. Below is a list of great companies trading at fair to cheap valuations. Full disclosure I am long all of these.

@fivepointscap $SE also had a significant drawback thru last couple of quarters

$SE - Sea Limited operates the largest ecommerce, fintech, and gaming platforms in all of Southeast Asia Sea just posted 47% revenue growth in Q1, their fifth straight quarter of YoY acceleration, with operating income up 30% YoY. Like MELI, their moat comes from the ecommerce and fintech flywheel, backed by enormous logistics infrastructure, network effects, their new ShopeeVIP membership, and their brands. Being the dominant player in all three of their verticals, Sea Limited is in a prime position to capitalize on the digitization of the Southeast Asian economy. With 4.5% annual GDP growth expected for SEA over the next decade, Sea Limited is the primary public market beneficiary. My bull case DCF for Sea Limited, which assumes the midpoint of management’s Shopee margin guidance results in a fair value of $326 per share.

@JoshTradeOption Better strategy is just out the profit you make from the sale into the leaps and hold them without a stop loss. Thats real house money

I'm up about 30% on $NOW . I bought 1,000 shares at $95.95. Tomorrow I plan to: 1. Sell all 1,000 shares 2. Buy March 19, 2027 $150 LEAPS, for roughly $21.00. If $NOW hits $200 early 2027 or before, those LEAPS will now be worth $60.00 or so. If $NOW hits $220 early 2027 or before, those LEAPS will now be worth $75.00 or so. My stop would be where I'm back to my original investment. What do you guys think? This trade would multiple the possible returns, using house money with my stop loss.

@BoomerDivvies In 5 years it will almost certainly be higher. But you can probably buy at a better price before then

I’m kinda scared to lump sum more money into the market at these levels. Explain to me like I’m 5 why I’m right or wrong.

@uncledoomer C, maybe A (Iceland is awesome)

forget the arbitrary straight lines. youre doing a great american roadtrip, but you can only pick one region. which one are you picking?

@KobeissiLetter This really just keeps happening huh

BREAKING: Dell stock, $DELL, surges nearly +30% after reporting stronger than expected earnings due to AI.

This is my estimated timelines for whats gonna happen. June 12 $spcx ipo. ~ August - @spacex:@tesla 50:50 merger proposal. $ tsla shares rise to ~540-$650. in valuation lockstep with $spcx. November 26- Tesla shareholders vote Yes!. December 26- S&P inclusion for $spcx company. Passive funds buying $100b of $spcx June 17 2027: lockup period is over for Elon. S&P does rebalancing . passive funds adjust to the full float. he sells into liquidity and raise $70b to pay for exercise of the 303m $tsla options. he pays Tesla/spcex $7b. *could do net settlement of shares. this means Tesla/spacex pays the withholding taxes And give him less shares. ~Q3 2027- merger complete. @elonmusk @wholemars @SawyerMerritt @TeslaBoomerMama @CernBasher @TSLAFanMtl @nerdalert @bradsferguson

@KobeissiLetter Proof that we’re totally definitely not Israel’s client state

BREAKING: President Trump says he is "not sure we should make the deal" with Iran if Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and "others" do not join the Abraham Accords. President Trump says these countries "owe it to us."

@FinanceLancelot @leopoldasch It’s called a collar trade, retard

The reason Leopold Aschenbrenner @leopoldasch recently went massively short chip companies like $NVDA and all in on crypto mining companies is because he sees a catastrophic collapse in compute demand. Let me explain. A collapse in the AI bubble & Bitcoin bitcoin:native means the crypto mining companies will have access to extremely cheap data center hardware. This will significantly boost mining profitability as AI data centers offload idle compute power for pennies on the dollar.

@KobeissiLetter They’re going to pump this thing to mars

BREAKING: SpaceX has been awarded a $2.29 billion contract from the US Space Force for space data network development.

They’re selling $NVDA to raise cash for the $SPCX IPO

@Gragasxrp They convinced Trump there would be a deal, then there was no deal. That's how you make it through the long weekend without your adversary starting a weekend war.

@KobeissiLetter Huge if true. Too bad it’s not!

BREAKING: US officials say Iran has agreed to give up its highly enriched uranium under the deal which President Trump said will “soon” be announced, per NYT. Iran has yet to make any public statements on the supposed agreement.