Beeli Capital

@RampCapitalLLC I guess so. In fairness, my purchases are more domino's, kids stuff, and less expensive golf stuff.

@BeeliCapital Skill issue

One of the most useful features of AI chatbots is asking them for coupon codes before buying anything online. I’m currently batting 1.000 on getting 10–25% off an order by simply just asking.

Value investing isn't dead, you just can't rely on other investors to increase the multiple for your stocks. Here's how value investing actually works. substack.com/home/post/p-19…

@finphysnerd Devil's advocate: very low EV/Sales (0.25) and $230M in Cash on balance sheet. Strong consumer facing brand and some meme-potential. Definitely rather be short than long, but I'm looking for a higher entry. Also FCF positive before SBC, so more dilution than financing pressure.

$SFIX seems like a no brainer short. They provide styling services, selling fits based on a combination of algorithms and human stylists. Their customer base is shrinking rapidly, while they are juicing ARPU. They have been consistently loss making for 5 years while declines

@calvinfroedge Did the most recent earnings support your thesis? Looked like 1% growth y/y and guide down of 3% for this coming year. Don't know well, just trying to learn a little more about the biz.

Gonna give you guys a freebie here Brazillian market hasn't caught on yet

I do agree that if you know what hotel you want, then booking directly should in theory be as cheap or cheaper (ex-loyalty). I think they benefit from aggregator advantages and generally require hotels best prices to also be available on Booking.com (like AMZN does)

Interesting take: x.com/orrdavid/statu… I'm long $BKNG and think it provides a lot of value whether it's the loyalty program, customer service / returns, or ability to filter through the hotels that I'm looking for.

I'm assuming this is tongue-in-cheek. Otherwise, your investment banking takeaways and mine were polar opposites.

@BreakoutPoint @NMRtweet I made a post on 5/14 and then tweeted on 5/15 x.com/BeeliCapital/s…

$POET down another 8% currently Down ~30% since short by @NMRtweet 👇Prominent bull-to-bear pivots

@pennycheck @POETtech $40M when I published this piece on 5/14! beelicapital.substack.com/p/poet-purchas…

@POETtech 4. How much money did you pay lumilens in exchange for nothing other than the right to issue a misleading PR fantasizing about a $500M potential PO for 18 month old a company with zero customers or IP ?

Take This Short Quiz How well do you know our company? Here is the first step in providing some info for which we know many of you have longed. Comment with your best guesses. Short on time? Don’t worry — we’ve got you covered. We’ll flex with the answers when it’s most opportune. 1. What is the year-over-year %-age increase of the company’s combined office and lab space in Singapore (previously 5,000 square feet)? a) 25% b) 50% c) 250% 2. What is the company’s current assembly capacity, including facilities at Globetronics and NationGate (previously 0 in 2025)? a) 2,500 square feet b) 10,000 square feet c) 20,000 square feet 3. Here’s the big one: What is the approximate %-age monthly increase of the company’s wafer supply from Silterra (previously 65 wafers per month; answer is verifiable by purchase orders)? a) 10% b) 100% c) 823.1% #POETpowersAI $POET

I put out a skeptical post on $POET yesterday: beelicapital.substack.com/p/poet-purchas… Today Night Market Research put out a short report and the stock is down 14%: nightmarketresearch.com/poet/ A lot of that is short-term noise, but I still predict long-term problems for POET and POET shareholders!

@ByrneHobart I audited courses for fun when I was in college; you've just never heard of me. Now I'm not as near a college and busy with work and family. I think the Sean Parker types are pretty rare, and there's a reason for his depiction in the social network as going after co-eds.

The only people I've heard of who hung around a campus and audited interesting courses are Nicholas Decker and Sean Parker. If you're a believer in college-as-skill-acquisition vs college-as-signaling, this is a big puzzle!

@valuations_ A lot of the profits come from the software sales, and those probably improve as they have more marquee releases this year and next year, but I've still been avoiding for now. beelicapital.substack.com/p/nintendo-man…

@TechFundies Yeah, as mentioned, Bloomberg is about 10x this price. Have you looked at @CanalystModels? That can be a little bit more reasonable but likely still above $200/mo.

I would gladly pay $200 / month for a service that simply aggregates historical corporate financials and KPIs, estimates and rudimentary market data; and makes this accessible via Excel plug-in and MCP. Seems like that market would be 10x larger than the professional finance seat market.

@fiscal_ai @TechFundies Does it have an Excel add-in?

@TechFundies 👋👋 Through our Terminal or MCP, you can get real-time financial data (as-reported & standardized), Segments & KPIs, ratios, adjusted metrics, news, filings, and more. fiscal.ai

@benhylak Have you tried kayak.com/ai?

LITERALLY ALL I WANT IS A CHATBOT FOR TRAVEL "FIND ME THE BEST HOTEL AND BOOK IT"

@viceroyresearch @viceroyresearch Following up here.

@viceroyresearch Can you explain the stock-based compensation line? It looks like Arbor is already adding back stock-based compensation as a non-cash expense, and then you seem to be giving them credit for it again, since you're adding an additional 5.9 million in Q1?

So @arbor1's results are out: - 42% dividend cut to 17c a share - Distributable income 7c a share, exc, PIK! - Net income is $0. - Agency volumes crashed. We calculate PIK at $ 30m in Q1. We believe this figure is consistently misreported by Arbor $ABR. 1/5

@firstadopter FYI, the 97 page primer was published by Bernstein on Saturday, May 9th.

Bernstein just dropped a 97 page primer on data center connectivity. There goes my morning.

Surprisingly Sortino is slightly worse for Berkshire than QQQ, but a lot of that is explained by higher beta. TL;DR: Berkshire outperformed the market, especially on a beta-adjusted basis since 2000. QQQ is cherry picking and still not clearly better than BRK.B

Berkshire has still done significantly better than the S&P 500, with much less risk (particularly if you consider the lower beta and big cash balance). SPX is a better comp than QQQ since Buffett famously eschews most tech stocks.

This is a dumb take. x.com/orrdavid/statu… QQQ has performed very strongly and is cherrypicked. Here are some stats: SPX v BRK/B (since 3/10/1999) Beta: 1 v 0.7 Sharpe @ 3%: 0.39 v 0.44 Sortino @ 3%: 0.52 v 0.56