Billy Ray Valentine

@OptionsHawk @3PeaksTrading

Today’s Gamma expert analysis had us holding 7400, then 7375, then 7350…and once one finally works, we hear “Nailed It” lmao, stuff is so trash, just bump your “key level” all day until one works 😂

A crazy tax idea for Elon Musk. He could become the biggest OZ investor in history. The IPO is the trigger. SpaceX goes public June 12 under the ticker SPCX and the valuation might go to $2 trillion. The largest IPO ever. Insider lockup runs 180 days. It expires around December 15. The day it ends, insiders can sell. Every share sold throws off a capital gain. For Elon, holding billions in SpaceX paper, the gain is staggering. Under the new Opportunity Zone rules that take effect January 1, 2027, any capital gain rolled into a Qualified Opportunity Fund within 180 days of the sale earns a five-year tax deferral. Sell in late December 2026. Invest in early 2027. The tax bill is not due until 2032. If the QOF investment is held for ten years, the entire appreciation comes out tax-free. No capital gains. No depreciation recapture. Zero. But Elon isn't going to suddenly start investing in apartments or hotels in low income areas. He is going to remain obsessed with investing in his core businesses. Good news. The town of Starbase, Texas sits inside an Opportunity Zone census tract. Grimes County, where Musk is building a $55 billion semiconductor fab called Terafab, has three OZ tracts of its own. Elon could sell SPCX shares after lockup. Roll the gain into his own Qualified Opportunity Fund. Use that fund to build infrastructure at Starbase or finance the Terafab site. Then lease the asset back to the public company. SpaceX pays the rent. The rent is deductible to SpaceX. The depreciation flows to Elon and offsets his other income for a decade. Then he sells the QOF interest in 2037. No tax on the appreciation. No recapture on the depreciation. The original gain that funded it all was deferred to 2032. The IPO funds the infrastructure. The infrastructure runs the company. The taxpayer pays nothing for ten years and almost nothing forever. This is the crazy idea. The mechanics are real. The zones are real. The IPO is real. I am glad to advise his tax team. 🤠

Never seen this before. Huge drop in NAAIM with market at all time highs.

JUST IN: Senator Lummis says Clarity Act will pass markup with bipartisan support today

At this stage of a market cycle, it becomes very easy to compare yourself to others. The leaders caught. Their average entry. The P&L screenshots. The size they carried. The money they made on a single trade or over the entire cycle. That’s a dangerous trap. Because this game was never you-versus-them. It’s you versus you. The real benchmark is simple: Are you better than last cycle? Are you holding winners better? Are you trading around cores with more maturity? Are you getting shaken out less? Are you trimming into strength instead of emotional extremes? Are you managing NER better? progressive exposure better? Are you forcing less and waiting for cleaner spots? That’s the only comparison that actually matters. There will always be someone with a bigger winner, an earlier entry, a larger account, or a more aggressive style. But none of that has anything to do with your process evolution. The goal is not to win the comparison game in a single cycle. The goal is to still be here, sharper and more evolved, by the next one.

The humanoid robotics theme is an emerging trade I see right now and almost nobody is positioned for it correctly IMO. 🤖📈 Pay attention... most people only really know $TSLA. Optimus is real and Tesla is the demand creator that legitimizes the entire sector, but the second order trade is interesting too. Here's the chain... simplified drastically... Every humanoid robot needs eyes. Lidar and vision is the layer that lets a robot actually understand the world it is walking through. $OUST is the cleanest public lidar pure play, $MBLY is the vision and ADAS leader pivoting hard into robotics, $AMBA is the edge AI vision chip that processes everything in real time, and $AEVA, $ARBE, $CGNX round out the perception layer. Every humanoid needs precision motion. Harmonic drives, actuators, and motion control are the unsexy compounders most retail will skip right over. $VPG is the precision sensor and load cell pure play, $NOVT is motion control built specifically for robotics, $ALNT is precision motion components, and $RR is the optical sensor name that quietly shows up everywhere. Every humanoid needs a brain. The compute that runs on board has to be cheap, low power, and reliable. $LSCC is the low power FPGA that ends up inside countless edge devices, $INDI is the automotive and robotics semi nobody has on their radar yet, $AMBQ is the analog compute play, and $MRAM is the next gen memory built for exactly these workloads. Every humanoid needs a logistics use case. The first commercial deployments are not going to be in homes, they are going to be in warehouses. $SYM is the automated warehouse pure play, $ZBRA owns enterprise scanning and tracking, $SERV is sidewalk delivery robotics that doubles as data collection, and $KITT is the autonomous platform play. Every humanoid needs an industrial pedigree. The companies that already build robots for factories will be the ones supplying components and software to the humanoid OEMs. $ISRG is the surgical robotics gold standard, $KLIC is the precision assembly tooling, $HG is the heavy machinery name pivoting into robotics, and $BOT is the basket ETF if you want broad exposure in one click. And on the speculative high beta end... $ATOM is robotic software with real adoption, $XPEV has its own humanoid program coming, $AUR is autonomous trucking which is the same playbook applied to the road, and $NEO is the small cap optionality play. Pick the chokepoints. Own the picks and shovels... then wait. Will share more ideas to followers soon. NFA.

He’s fully allocated to Crypto? Pump every asset on earth to record highs except his bags.

“wow equities are ripping, time to position myself in alternative cryptocurrencies before everyone rotates from the assets that go up only into the ones that don’t”

How to tell where a couple met: If she’s hotter than him, they met in real life If he’s hotter than her, they met on Hinge If they’re equally hot, they met in high school or college If he’s way fatter than her, they met at an SEC college If both are both insanely mid, they met at work or drunk at a bar (or both) If they look related, they were set up by mutual friends

Fidelity commends the Senate Banking Committee for advancing the CLARITY Act. The bill provides a balanced approach and, if passed, will offer statutory clarity to digital asset markets, benefiting American investors and helping ensure the U.S. remains a global leader in digital assets.

MarketWatch: Goldman Sachs' prime-brokerage division says that hedge funds may have been selling the rally in chip stocks. "Amid the group's explosive price rally since the end of March (SOX +59% as of May 11th), US Semis & Semi Equip stocks collectively have been meaningfully 'net sold' by hedge funds based on Prime data (excluding options) during the same period, driven mainly by long sales," said analysts led by Vincent Lin. Lin says managers may have used the rally to take profits while still playing for upside via options and other limited-loss formats. The firm does see "signs of chase and euphoria" in the volatility and ETF space. Lin also notes asset managers have been forced to buy AI stocks because they can't afford to miss out on the gains.

There are many high tight flags setting up and breaking out. This is a great time to study how USIC @LeifSoreide trades them in his masterclass 👇 app.traderlion.com/university/hig…

Fascinating stuff

Prices chasing earnings. Not the other way round.

@BoxTraderVK Nice job. It shook me out on that earnings gap down 🫤

$WOLF Up 70% now from below post NEVER doubt your hard work Doubt all noise Useless opinions, breakout don't work etc etc Spent countless hours hours and things will become clear

I'd hate this bull market too if I am sidelined and couldn't get a position in but I have a hard time buying the dip because it ran up way too far way too fast and I'm worried about a crash to come so I can buy it but when a crash does come I probably wouldn't buy but I am not sure if a crash is even coming because I just hate the market in general and I hate everyone who told me that the crash would get worse because it didn't and I wish I didn't try to sell and buy back lower or try to raise cash at the wrong time because this is a very sucky feeling that I don't know how to resolve and even today's red day is scary and I don't feel like buying so I ask influencers if these are still good entry points but the reality is that influencers are just regular people with thoughts and they change all the time but when I pay for paid services I don't necessarily always get good advice not that they're providing advice anyway and I know I'm responsible for my decisions but I cannot help but to blame them because I'm too weak to blame myself as I'm just a retail investor and I don't know why the market is playing with my emotions but this is what's happening and this is the worst feeling on earth because I cannot see the bigger picture and I don't understand that the best action is to stay int he market and to do nothing but I also dislike permabulls because they don't help me time the market and avoid draw downs either so I'm just a very conflicted and whiny person but that's OK because I'm hiding behind a keyboard and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

$GOOGL $TSLA - *Google, SpaceX in Talks to Launch Data Centers in Orbit, Sources Say *A Google, SpaceX Deal Would Offer a Boost to SpaceX Ahead of Potential IPO *Google Is in Discussions With Other Rocket-Launch Companies as Well, Source Says

White = Semis into the 2000 peak Yellow = Semis today $SOX

Luck has surface area. The more you try, speak, build, share, prep, review, think, work... the larger the surface luck has to collide with. Most people don’t succeed because they bat 100%. They succeed because they take thousands of swings instead of dozens. Then add the dedication to show up each day and work on prep and review... showing up every day long enough to improve the batting average/odds. Luck isn’t static. It compounds around action, repetition, and grit. The so called market wizards almost all, 95%+ blew up, with multiple years of trial and error before they got lucky. In that sense, compounding is the universe’s way of scaling luck. Liftoff takes the most, enormous energy. Escaping gravity takes continuous focused energy. But once trajectory and escape velocity are achieved, compounding does much of the heavy lifting with risk systems in place. The hardest part is surviving long enough to reach that phase. The light at the end of the tunnel, small and dim but there yet.