Fat Shot Drug

@LiebermanAustin It’ll probably trade between 200-250 where it has lived perpetually

I still think $AMZN will be one of the best performing/best R/R stocks from 2026 - 2030. This quarter might be the start of the market realizing Amazon is one of the leading AI beneficiaries.

@firstadopter Why are you a $GOOGL bear

On a day when many AI-related stocks are up 15% to 25%, the two bearish calls I made on my Substack, Qualcomm and Alphabet, are trading down. Fundamental analysis works.

@jbulltard1 “except for Nike” Nike out here catching strays LMFAO

look im happy for $MSFT bulls but come on this thing is still negative on the year, pump the brakes for a moment. What you're experiencing today is the fact that society depends on stocks always going up and all real stocks do recover at some point, except for nike.

BREAKING: Jim Cramer says he "sees a sure signal to buy stocks."

$AMZN: Too much to cover but never seen such growth in their AWS biz: +$4.6B q/q - 80% larger than any Q, backlog $496B up Triple Digits, $169B annualized RR rate getting to $1T with 39% margins +650 BPS. *CEO Jassy S/H letter was worth back in April

@pequityresearch The snap back is going to be wild. Make sure you have your buys set.

KOSPI, SAMSUNG, AND SK HYNIX WOW 🤯

@pequityresearch It’s going to be higher than 2026 and 2028 will be higher than 2027.

Uh...Amazon $AMZN just finished their conference call and not even ONE analyst asked them about their 2027 CapEx outlook? Nor did they come up front and talk about it themselves.

Things I bought yesterday that I feel great about today. $INTC $LITE $CRWV Kioxia I’m deploying capital now. The hyper-scalers have reiterated AI demand is insatiable. My AI use is higher than ever and my productivity is higher than ever. The models are incredible.

@pequityresearch It’s going to be higher across the board. I don’t see how anyone can be bearish AI after the reports from $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META Demand for compute is through the roof and companies are already seeing returns. They will continue to scale. If you don’t… you will lose.

Amazon didn't use language as before stating CapEx will be "significantly higher" or along those lines in today's conference call. They did say "I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too" in reference to demand > capacity, suggesting CapEx will be higher but I find it interesting that not a single analyst asked them to clarify. What are analysts even doing these days???

Amazon $AMZN on reserved AWS capacity: “The lion’s share of the capacity we’re adding in 2027 is already reserved, and quite a bit of our 2028 capacity is already reserved.” “Eexpect to have double the power capacity by the end of 2027 that we had in 2025, and we continue to be on that track.”

$AMZN CEO on building its own frontier model: “AWS & Amazon can have a wildly successful business without a frontier model of their own because there is not going to be one model to rule the world” “Within the next few years, you’re going to have at least half a dozen models that are comparably good. They’ll all be in Bedrock, and one of them will be ours.”

Amazon $AMZN on AWS’s long-term potential: “We’ve long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion-dollar revenue business. We now believe it will be at least double that, and very possibly be a $1 TRILLION annual revenue business for us in time.”

Amazon $AMZN on AI infrastructure returns: “On average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment.” “The servers currently have a useful life of at least 5 to 6 years, and most of our AI capacity these days is being contracted for at least five-year terms.” “Our data centers have 30-plus-year useful lives and should support at least five to six generations of server economics.”

Amazon $AMZN on raising 2026 cash CapEx to $220B: “The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion.” “Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027.” “The demand we already have for 2028 is striking.” “We typically purchase servers and networking equipment a few months before putting them into service, so we have strong visibility into customer demand before we trigger the spend.” “If the demand isn’t there, we won’t spend the capital for servers and networking equipment.”

$AMZN: I'll start with AWS, which is booming right now, and I'll share the numbers. What we think is going on and why we're enthusiastic about the ROI. Equation. Even with HEAVY CapEx next few years.

Amazon $AMZN says its AWS AI business and chips business have each surpassed a $25 billion annual revenue run rate, with both growing at triple-digit rates YoY.

CLAUDE BREACHED REAL SYSTEMS DURING TESTS Anthropic reviewed 141,006 cybersecurity evaluation runs and found three incidents involving six runs and three outside organizations. A third-party test environment had unintended internet access despite Claude being told it was isolated, causing the models to treat real systems as simulated capture-the-flag targets. Opus 4.7 extracted credentials and accessed a database containing several hundred rows of production data, continuing even after recognizing the target was likely real. Mythos 5 uploaded a malicious PyPI package that remained online for roughly an hour and ran on 15 real systems, ultimately exposing a security company’s credentials. An internal research model scanned about 9,000 targets and compromised one before stopping once it realized the target was real. Anthropic said the models did not deliberately escape or pursue their own goals. The evaluations lacked safeguards normally used in public Claude deployments, and the attacks relied on basic weaknesses rather than novel vulnerabilities. Two affected organizations had not detected the activity before Anthropic notified them. The company has halted its cyber evaluations while tightening network isolation, monitoring and vendor controls. Source: Anthropic

AMAZON: - WE ARE INCREASING CAPEX FOR 2026 FROM $200B TO $220B - THIS WILL GO UP MORE IN 2027, DEMAND STILL FAR MORE THAN SUPPLY - 2028 DEMAND IS ALREADY COMING IN - WE THINK AWS WILL BE A $1T/YR BUSINESS $AMZN +9%...the street's believing in the ROI story

Spending a week with my family and working most of it! Being a few hours ahead of US markets has given me some time to digest a lot of incredible markets discourse on X - there is too much to try and consume about AI but not enough about leverage. We are seeing a classic head hunt of the most levered players in the equity and convert market re AI globally. Hyperscaler and associated credit spreads in IG are wider as they should be (portfolio construction by notional and duration matter in credit because we don’t have the payout that equity does) and debt is being added to compute and power as another constraint on the AI theme. Govt regulation remains a massive wildcard but a longer cycle isn’t necessary a worse one. I would look for the forced sellers of assets trading at or below contract value with counterparties you feel good about that have positive optionality on growth opportunities. Think about the impact on spot and next 1-2 year curves for compute, power, and shell - those who are long and don’t need financing + can term out contracts now are materially advantaged. If this is the whole cycle being elongated and the curve flattened there are a lot of interesting securities to buy from forced sellers. More time for competition and technology to emerge in the intermediate term isn’t necessarily a bad thing for many infrastructure assets. I started my career in the middle of the early 2000s telecom cycle - Nortel, Lucent, Cisco, etc were financing their customers. There have been some very astute comments on this platform from people who understand the AI echosystem far better than I do about Nvidia and Broadcoms business model decision to become the working capital bank of the AI build - bridging the industry to revenue and cash flow. My sense is the focus in credit markets right now is too much on Meta Google Amazon etc and not enough on that business model change which liquifies the compute roll out in the near term and shifts the credit risk to those large semiconductor companies. It’s fun to seeing liquidity having a price again and god forbid IG companies cost of debt having to compete with their cost to equity.

CITADEL BUYS BULK OF STOCK PORTFOLIO FROM SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, SOURCES SAY - WSJ Is this why they were pushing the narrative that the Fed would hike at the July meeting?