BTCNC

Back in 2020, I posted this. @saylor #Bitcoin and $MSTR have comes so far. “Apple is a mobile network, Google is a search network, Facebook is a social network, $Bitcoin is a monetary network” - MSTR’s Saylor.

@PeterSchiff @saylor @Strategy So, you’re going to short? @RealJimChanos took issue and actually traded the thesis. @PeterSchiff only spouts off when it’s opportunistic publicity.

@saylor @Strategy The rest of the story is how much money Strategy lost on those Bitcoin buys and how much more money shareholders will losing repaying debt and paying dividends to preferred shareholders.

Orange dots tell only part of the story.

I am going to spend a good deal on this important take from Matt this weekend on YouTube. As BTC closes in on the 50 day moving average and sentiment is brutal, I think everyone whether you believe in crypto or not, needs to read both the Scott Bessent speech and the Mohammed El-Erian NYT Op-Ed about the importance of the speech for Wall Street. You can no longer have no view on crypto or just call it a speculative asset especially with agentic commerce coming soon. Bessent said clearly “Digital assets, stablecoins, tokenization, and new payment systems will help to shape the future of money. The United States should not consign itself to the sidelines while that future is built elsewhere.” Do your homework now

@Scaramucci If I say “no”, will you change your shirt and recommend the same portfolio allocation?

Here's how I'd build a portfolio right now. I have about 30% in Bitcoin, a basket of AI companies I can get access to ( I own Astera Labs publicly, SpaceX privately). Always own a slug of the S&P. The Mag 7 has had its run but the other 493 are doing well this year. Some real estate and some gold. Then sit tight and bet the long term of the United States. This country is not going anywhere and here's why I believe that so deeply. Definitionally, everyone who came to this country was a risk taker. The people who got on a boat or a plane from somewhere else and said, I'm going to swing for the fences in America. When you swing for the fences you strike out sometimes and this is a culture that accepts getting your ass kicked and getting back up. That makes it neurally flexible and neurally plastic. I wouldn't bet against the people who live here. @philrosenn

@BTCBreadMan Super low LTV loan to stack more.

When you finally manage to stack a whole bitcoin, what will you spend it on?

@BTCBreadMan @CryptoJelleNL DCA out like a champ

Which approach will be more successful next cycle? 1. DCA the entire way, never sell 2. Stop DCAing at $100k, start gradually scaling out after $150k

@BTCBreadMan @EricWeez Hard to do with everyone in Uptober mode, we’ve waited for “blowoff” top, icons of $BTC calling for multiples higher, and spiral to S2F charts all saying it was too early. Felt too soon to step off the rocket. Not next time!

@EricWeez At the time I thought selling was being greedy. Now I realize that holding because I thought it would go higher was actually being greedy.

I’ve never sold any bitcoin before. I have a feeling 2028 will be the first year that I sell some. Sick of watching the smart long term holders scale out at high prices and scale back in at low prices while I just ride the fucker back down to Hades each time. 🤣

@BitcoinTeacher_ You get a basic coverage through work as a teacher , probably $50k, and until you have liabilities (mortgage, childcare, spousal care, etc) you don’t need specified insurance policy amount and term. You especially don’t need an expensive, complicated product.

@BitcoinTeacher_ Majority HNW clients I had in Private Wealth Mgmt, either had a 30 yr term life insurance policy through prime earning years when there were significant liabilities or self insured (meaning no cov aside from specific LIRPs or executive policies. It should be simple for you now.

Looking for help here ⁉️ Ok so here is the story. I have a friend who is telling me about something called an IUL? Indexed Universal Life. It can never lose value, but has options to cap its growth and uncap its growth. I’m so confused on what this is. Hes my age and I’m curious on 1. What is this? Just a life insurance thing that people sell? 2. Is this a good option for someone young? He wants me to get on a zoom call for it this weekend..? Looking for genuine replies I have legit never heard of this

@BTCoptioneer Love collecting the decay sub 45 DTE, but pausing for a while. Not very “tastytrade”

$MSTR options selling is simple. Sell puts when everyone is talking about some imaginary "death spiral". Sell covered calls when everyone is saying the bottom is in. Simple but not easy because your emotions get in the way.

“This is the Most Bitcoin I Have Ever Bought” One sentence signal. You must add @timevalueofbtc if you have not. Back in my Tradfi days, these constant insights would’ve cost at least a Bloomberg terminal each month. So many more too: @_Checkmatey_ @LynAldenContact

@BTCoptioneer @BitcoinTeacher_ Exactly. emphasize mechanical, probability-based investing (S&P 9% since 1929 +/-) and bitcoin:native CAGR over directional market timing.

@BitcoinTeacher_ I think it's best to just DCA into VTI/VOO/VT (either one) + BTC consistently and not overthink it. Buying the top at $126K was not irrational because BTC could have easily gone up to $200K too if things played out differently.

Late night thoughts #20 Not diversifying out of Bitcoin continues to look like very bad play here for me. I mean let’s just say Bitcoin ran up a 8x, and you start putting money in other things besides 126k Bitcoin. Let’s use $VTI for example. That VTI is now up 30% and you can rotate it into Bitcoin 50% off if that’s what you really want. In hindsight it seems like a great way to build more Bitcoin actually. Rather than buying at highs. Is this a W take?

@HermesLux Did this already - close to peak fear. Lots of time to be right too 🫡

Now would be a great time to execute a synthetic stock position on MSTR to significantly increase your exposure to MSTR while having a similar risk profile to owning stock. Similar risk 2x+ more efficiency/leverage. This also means you could sell twice as many cover calls if you wanted.

@BitcoinTeacher_ Both markets see the majority of their gains in short periods. Exclude Bitcoin’s 10 best days, annual returns would be down about 27% per year. @fundstrat. Hold. Avoid Behavior gap. Trading = risks of timing the market or sell during dips; the biggest days are unpredictable.

“That's why being up is more dangerous than being down…On the up, everything is pushing you to go faster. Your P&L, your mood, your brain chemistry, you name it. And there's nothing in the system telling you to ease off.” Gotta trade in the zone.

@BitcoinTeacher_ Get ready for mean reversion in $MSTR during a bull market.

If you can’t handle the rollercoaster don’t strap in. But in all honesty wtf is going on. $MSTR up 10% and Bitcoin making some noise. But 10% on a tiny move under 60k?

Screens off; rest of the summer off. Opinion: I’ve traded @johnarnold vs Enron, @michaeljburry vs subprime, & I think we now have @saylor $MSTR @fundstrat $BMNR where price is dislocated from fundamentals & where the market will eventually get to. “where the puck is going to be”

Likely how most #Bitcoiners should manage their stack. Own bitcoin:native with it being collateralized or “encumbered”. Full disclosure: I use margin selectively and successfully, but such positions can be time consuming.

@BitcoinTeacher_ Yes, I left finance with capital. Went hard in the paint with stacking but sentiment and your eventual peer confusion are similar.

@BitcoinTeacher_ Financial engineering - never perfect. He lost the $STRC peg to counter trading in size. Everyone acts like it’s over. As a former teacher, who entered $BTC in #cryptowinter at $4500, this is sort of what it felt like. You’re on track. I retired super early - you too if you stack

$MSTR looking to right the ship. What’s the next move from here? Dilution to fund the cash reserves? Sit and do nothing and wait for bitcoin to climb? I have no clue.

Exactly. Why would anyone sell bitcoin:native here. Buy.