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@BlueWhiskey007

Oracle Software Services Exec; Bloom Energy believer!

Dallas, TX Katılım Ocak 2018
382 Takip Edilen229 Takipçiler
CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@_Sgr_A_Star That’s not how prepayments and deferred revenue work; the customer doesn’t receive any credit on the backend; once revenue starts to be recognized, it takes out of current deferred first, then long-term deferred until more payments are due.
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The God Particle
The God Particle@_Sgr_A_Star·
$IREN Yesterday I shared some analysis of RPOs that shows a fast growing contract book, and more importantly a growing contract tenor for the recently commenced AI CSP contracts. Today I'll share a different analysis using the same RPOs and deferred revenue that allows us to glean new insights. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) represent the company's total backlog of commenced contracted future revenue. Deferred revenue is simply the subset of those RPOs where cash has already been collected (i.e., prepaid). Tracking both numbers period over period allows us to answer a few questions: - What % of the total contract book is already prepaid? - What % of next year's revenue is already prepaid? - What % of newly added contracts in a period was prepaid? - When will IREN credit back the pre-payments? For starters the data shows IREN continues to receive pre-payments from seemingly all customers and the data is improving. 1. The % of the total contract book that is prepaid has gone up from 12% -> 16.1% -> 16.9% over the last 3 periods. 2 . As a % of next year's revenue has climbed from 25% -> 31.1% -> 39.1% 3. And newly commenced contracts in each period continue to see ~20% prepayments. Collectively the data suggests the contract book is becoming more valuable, more durable, and of better quality. Customer prepaid cash helps fund growth and reduces the reliance on other sources of funding. A customer willing to prey-pay is of higher quality. They're more committed, credible, stickier, and a better credit counterparty. Lastly, as in the MSFT deal (which is not in any of this data because that contract hasn't commenced), the 10Q data suggests the pre-payments are also being paid back on the back-end of the contract. All deferred revenue is bucketed in either "Current Portion" or "Non-Current Portion" - current portion being the amount of deferred revenue that will be recognized in the next 12 months, and non-current portion will be recognized after 12 months. The fact that the vast majority of deferred revenue is in the non-current portion suggests the pre-payments aren't credited back until the back-end of the contract (or after 12 months). All of this is still early, but all of it is pointing to a healthy business with good commercial outcomes.
The God Particle tweet mediaThe God Particle tweet media
The God Particle@_Sgr_A_Star

$IREN I've shared previously that I like to do analysis of RPOs (Remaining Performance Obligations) because it allows me to glean a lot about the business. RPOs are: - a good proxy for period ending ARR - insight into size of RPOs - insight into the shape of RPOs - insight into contract lengths and avg. remaining recognition As a reminder, RPOs are the remaining part of a commenced contract that will be recognized as revenue sometime in the future. A contracts value is only added to the RPO totals until the GPUs are delivered. As an example, the Microsoft deal which is very much legally binding contracted capacity has not commenced and would therefore not be included in RPO totals. It means that current RPOs only include the contracts associated with the current operational GPUs. Think Prince George and the roughly ~14k operational GPUs as of the end of the quarter. The 10Q breaks out the RPOs total in 3 time buckets, 1.) future revenue in the next 12 months, 2.) future revenue in months 12-24, and 3.) future revenue in months 25-60, The table below is my analysis of the RPOs totals over the last three quarters. A few things stand out to me: 1. Although expected, RPOs are growing fast. IREN added 421M to the totals in the last period. 2. The shape of RPOs this quarter shifted. The first two quarters listed had a short(er) duration contract book. Most of all RPOs (95-98%) were within 2 years. This last quarter changed that. The long-tail mix (25-60 months) now accounts for 19% of RPOs. This signals that for the GPUs that were installed last quarter and their associated contracts, those contracts were longer in length on average than previous quarters. This is likely due to the "lock in" effect going on in the market with how constrained compute is. Customers are much more likely to want to lock-in supply as long as possible, and the long-tail component (3-5 year contracts) is the tell. 3. Because the contract book the last few quarters was so "short dated", it's likely the company will benefit from the recent significant increase in GPU-hourly rates as these contracts end and GPUs re-contracted. It's early (only 14k GPUs) yet, but this last quarter showed a marked improvement in both the scale and tenor of IREN’s commenced revenue book. While Q1 and Q2 RPO was overwhelmingly concentrated within 24 months, Q3 saw a meaningful 25–60 month tail, suggesting an increase in contract duration and customer "lock-in effect".

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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
JP Morgan comfirm their bullishness on AI bottlenecks: In their 2026 Mid-Year Outlook report. "The evidence suggests investing for a continuing AI supercycle" "We believe the narrative around the AI supercycle has become too pessimistic" "Industries that control the physical bottlenecks... should continue to perform well": - optical equipment + networking - memory - power With these names mentioned as AI bottlenecks: - $NVDA - $TSM - $AVGO - $META - $SNDK - $MRVL - $LITE - $COHR - $ANET - $APH - $VRT They also say to consider investment in the hyperscalers since "market participants have grown more skeptical of the companies’ expanding capex plans." I agree, given the expanding demand/supply mismatch esp in cloud services. I'm personally heavy on $GOOGL and have started building my $META position recently over the past few months. Separately, $MSFT is stupidly cheap rn + $AMZN also deserve consideration just cos of AWS & robotics tailwinds. I feel a total rotation away from these names is wrong - having some small allocation at cheaper prices now makes sense for future planning. Like, when capex slows eventually, those bottlenecked names will close up? That's still ages away per all reliable forecasts, but still...makes sense to at least build hyperscaler positions slowly at lower prices? Overall, nothing "new" in the report that many of us on X didn't know already. And unfortunately no new names highlighted like BofA's semis report in Jan with $SOI. But good to see institutions like JP Morgan/GS/BofA essentially confirm bullishness on upstream names in the supply chain as multi-yr beneficiaries.
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@danielisdizzy You can’t look at market cap when CRWV has net LT Debt of $33 billion to NBIS $200 million; use Enterprise Value instead to account for the entire capital structure.
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Daniel
Daniel@danielisdizzy·
$CRWV has become far more interesting than $NBIS. $CRWV has a $58B market cap while $NBIS sits at $56B. But: • Expected end-2026 revenue run rate $CRWV: $18–19B $NBIS: $7–9B • Backlog $CRWV: $99.4B $NBIS: ~$45B • Expected connected power by end of 2026 $CRWV: ~1.7 GW $NBIS: 800MW–1GW There is no reason why $CRWV and $NBIS should trade at nearly the same market cap right now.
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@CKCapitalxx Are their low margins a result of significant federal government clients?
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CK Capital
CK Capital@CKCapitalxx·
If someone told you there was a $2.5 billion company partnered with $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $DELL, and SK Hynix you would think the market cap would be crazy high, but it’s not. That company is $PENG. And the more I sit with it the more comfortable I get. Here is why the risk feels so low to me. AI infrastructure spending is not slowing down. Every hyperscaler just raised capex guidance again. $NVDA is supply constrained not demand constrained. Every GPU cluster being deployed needs memory systems, networking, and compute infrastructure built around it. That is exactly what $PENG builds and integrates. The demand tailwind behind this company is not a 2026 story. It is a decade long story. When the macro gets choppy and people start asking which AI stocks are actually safe the answer is the ones with real revenue, real customers, and real partnerships with the companies that are guaranteed to win regardless of which chip architecture prevails. $PENG has all of that. $NVDA validates your GPU thesis. $AMD validates your CPU thesis. SK Hynix validates your memory thesis. $PENG sits at the intersection of all three and captures systems revenue on every single deployment. And then the $MRVL photonic memory partnership is still sitting completely unpriced. The Photonic Memory Appliance being built right now. $MRVL guiding $1 billion on the Photonic Fabric platform by FY29. $PENG builds the box. Zero dollars of that in any model today. $2.5 billion market cap. Partnered with the most important names in compute. Real revenue. Real customers. Demand that is going nowhere. The risk profile on this one is a lot lower than people think.
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Banana3
Banana3@Banana3Stocks·
$SPY $QQQ 🚨 ATTENTION ALL SUBSCRIBERS This week’s SUBSCRIBER giveaway! A Mickey Mantle signed lithograph To play you must be a SUBSCRIBER To WIN… whichever SUBSCRIBER guesses the closest price on $TSLA on Fridays closing price WINS! 🏆 Have fun!
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Michael Sikand 🦑
Michael Sikand 🦑@michaelsikand·
I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today. $PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M. Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock. With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings. 1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap. Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems. It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today. 2) Play the CPU supercycle. CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in. 3) The AI Factory platform is real. OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed. UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin. 4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet. $PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer. Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP. 5) People/partners are cracked. Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE. AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS 6) Risks are real but manageable Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while. Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE. Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.
Michael Sikand 🦑 tweet media
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@EvolamTrades Did they already issue $1B under the $6B ATM?
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EvolamTrades
EvolamTrades@EvolamTrades·
Updating $IREN share count table post the news of upsized $3B convert deal. $3B Converts, $2.5B in Cash, $5B ATM, $2B $NVDA give $IREN ~$12B of capital to build out ~1k MW NTM They clearly have a big fish on the line. We'll know soon.
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@Banana3Stocks Which long dated calls are you adding?
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Banana3
Banana3@Banana3Stocks·
$NOW 🎯 $120 BIG MOVE IN SERVICENOW IS IMMINENT I’ve been adding shares and some longer dated calls Weekly chart BULLISH MACD CROSSOVER just started is one positive divergence and secondly RSI also has a positive divergence The Banana325SMA at $125 will act as a magnet 🧲
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@Agrippa_Inv How are you calculating the Prepaid Forward Cost?
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𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
$IREN's new convertible offering is arguably the strongest one to date. - Size: $2.6b, up to $3b if extension option is exercised - Conversion Premium: 32.5% - Annual Coupon: 1% - Maturity Date: December, 2033 These are incredible terms! The only prior note offering that comes close to this is 'Convert 3', which on paper may look stronger (0% Coupon /42.5% Conversion). But keep in mind, that convert's size is ~1/3 of today's and expires 2 years prior. Generally speaking, the more capital you raise & the further out the maturity date, the worse terms you get. I'm a very happy shareholder today. This offering proves once again that $IREN's finance team is amongst the best in the industry.
𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet media
Frans Bakker@FransBakker9812

$IREN Prices Upsized $2.6 Billion 1% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2033 @IREN_Ltd announced the pricing of its upsized private offering of $2.6 billion in 1.00% convertible senior notes due 2033 (increased from the previously announced $2 billion). Key Terms: - Coupon: 1.00% (paid semi-annually) - Maturity: December 1, 2033 - Initial Conversion Price: ~$73.07 per share (32.5% premium to the $55.15 closing price on May 11, 2026) - Conversion Rate: 13.6848 ordinary shares per $1,000 principal - Capped Calls: Entered with a cap price of $110.30 (100% premium) to reduce dilution upon conversion Proceeds & Use: - Expected net proceeds: $2.57 billion ($2.96 billion if the $400 million option is fully exercised) - ~$174.5 million to fund capped call transactions - Remainder for general corporate purposes and working capital The notes settle on May 14, 2026. This move provides IREN with significant low-cost capital to support its AI cloud and data center growth.

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Danny Naz
Danny Naz@ThePupOfWallSt·
Power is becoming the bottleneck of the AI economy. For 30 years, U.S. electricity demand barely moved. Now AI data centers, reshoring, EVs, industrial automation, and grid upgrades are all hitting the system at once. That means the next big trade may not just be chips. It may be everything that feeds the chips. Companies that could benefit: $GEV, GE Vernova: turbines, grid equipment, power generation $POWL, Powell Industries: switchgear, power control systems $ETN, Eaton: electrical equipment, power management $HUBB, Hubbell: utility and grid components $PWR, Quanta Services: transmission and utility infrastructure $VRT, Vertiv: data center power and cooling $GNRC, Generac: backup power and grid resilience $CEG, Constellation Energy: nuclear power supply $VST, Vistra: power generation and capacity demand $NEE, NextEra Energy: renewables, grid, utility scale power $AMSC, American Superconductor: advanced grid and power systems $PLPC, Preformed Line Products: transmission and grid hardware $SPXC, SPX Technologies: transformers and power infrastructure $CLF, Cleveland-Cliffs: electrical steel exposure $MOD, Modine: thermal management and cooling The big idea: AI needs chips. Chips need data centers. Data centers need power. Power needs grid upgrades. That’s the second-order trade.
Danny Naz tweet media
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@DollarCostAvg Is my math stupid crazy? MSFT deal is 200MW, 5 yrs, $9.7B; remaining capacity is 550MW at Childress and 1,400MW at SW1; 1950/200 x $9.7B=$94.58B if similar terms as MSFT…or 2X NBIS contracted deals!
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@TheTechInvest Is my math stupid crazy? MSFT deal is 200MW, 5 yrs, $9.7B; remain capacity is 550MW at Childress and 1,400MW at SW1; 1950/200 x $9.7B=$94.58B if similar terms as MSFT…or 2X NBIS contracted deals.
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The Tech Investor
The Tech Investor@TheTechInvest·
$IREN IN LESS THAN 6 WEEKS 1. $IREN March 30: $30.76 $IREN May 6: $61 2. Energized one of the largest data centers on the planet. 3. Acquired Mirantis; FCF company and one of only three founding ISV partners in $NVDA AI Cloud Ready initiative that would enable $IREN to be the king of Sovereign AI Infrastructure given that "Sovereignty is no longer about choosing between hyperscalers and local providers. It's about operating across hybrid, multi-cloud environments without losing control.", Per Mirantis Such a sophisticated AI Infra is not being built to provide compute to hyperscalers. What a 2026 so far!
The Tech Investor@TheTechInvest

Q1 2025: $IREN CEO Dan Roberts: "2 hours ago we got an email from a trillion dollar hyperscaler saying they weren’t interested in Sweetwater and now they are." Q3 2026: Sweetwater 1 Energized

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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@Banana3Stocks Do you think we could still see a 12-17% pullback as you noted late last year, before heading higher? Tom Lee says 10/13 times we got a new Fed Chair, the market had a 15-20% drawdown, but he thinks we end the year around 7,800 and setup for an even bigger bull market in ‘27!
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CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@bradchyz @mcF_dan We haven’t, but I’d expect MSFT has first right of refusal or an option to take more if IREN can deliver and perform as expected on the first 200MW.
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Dan 🤖🌥❤️ 🚀
At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero. $IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations. At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless. Looking ahead: - Sweetwater 100% contracted - With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR - ARR Multiple 4x (conservative) - Implied Value $34B - Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal) So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@jlebenthal do you have a separate commentary account for CNBC?
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@Bloom_Energy Absolutely murdered results! Well done and looking forward to more business momentum and more raises in the coming quarters! 👏🏻
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Bloom Energy
Bloom Energy@Bloom_Energy·
Bloom Energy Reports Record First Quarter 2026 Results: • Q1 revenue of $751.1 million,m • Non-GAAP gross margin of 31.5% • Raised full year 2026 revenue growth guidance midpoint to ~80% year-over-year Access the full release here: lnkd.in/gRqrSxXe
Bloom Energy tweet mediaBloom Energy tweet media
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@Sean14978416 But $MU is clearly not getting any credit for 81% GMs, so let’s see how multi-year GMs of 65-70% play out; with LTAs of 3-5 years, the P/E should expand to 10 at a minimum, possibly higher! Re-ratings take time on a historically cyclical industry like memory.
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Sean
Sean@sean_________·
Cowen on $MU: do not see upside to $110 CY27E EPS LTAs are being structured around a GM framework of ~60% at the floor & high-80s% at the ceiling. ~5x CY27 P/E signaling a gross margin correction toward 60% GM floor post-CY27. Historically high GM to lower GM been a nearterm neg
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CDub
CDub@BlueWhiskey007·
@KohleMark Thank you for the commentary
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Markus Kohler
Markus Kohler@KohleMark·
@BlueWhiskey007 That’s often where these “monopoly-like” setups exist before they get picked up by broader markets. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram ALEABITOREDDITX that accessing global exchanges is becoming more important as many of these chokepoints sit outside the U.S. market.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
Sid k@SidkMena

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit Hey Serenity. what other gems do you suggest for multibagger returns like SIVE? Just want to diversify the portfolio a bit. Thanks!!

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