
CDub
220 posts

CDub
@BlueWhiskey007
Oracle Software Services Exec; Bloom Energy believer!




$IREN I've shared previously that I like to do analysis of RPOs (Remaining Performance Obligations) because it allows me to glean a lot about the business. RPOs are: - a good proxy for period ending ARR - insight into size of RPOs - insight into the shape of RPOs - insight into contract lengths and avg. remaining recognition As a reminder, RPOs are the remaining part of a commenced contract that will be recognized as revenue sometime in the future. A contracts value is only added to the RPO totals until the GPUs are delivered. As an example, the Microsoft deal which is very much legally binding contracted capacity has not commenced and would therefore not be included in RPO totals. It means that current RPOs only include the contracts associated with the current operational GPUs. Think Prince George and the roughly ~14k operational GPUs as of the end of the quarter. The 10Q breaks out the RPOs total in 3 time buckets, 1.) future revenue in the next 12 months, 2.) future revenue in months 12-24, and 3.) future revenue in months 25-60, The table below is my analysis of the RPOs totals over the last three quarters. A few things stand out to me: 1. Although expected, RPOs are growing fast. IREN added 421M to the totals in the last period. 2. The shape of RPOs this quarter shifted. The first two quarters listed had a short(er) duration contract book. Most of all RPOs (95-98%) were within 2 years. This last quarter changed that. The long-tail mix (25-60 months) now accounts for 19% of RPOs. This signals that for the GPUs that were installed last quarter and their associated contracts, those contracts were longer in length on average than previous quarters. This is likely due to the "lock in" effect going on in the market with how constrained compute is. Customers are much more likely to want to lock-in supply as long as possible, and the long-tail component (3-5 year contracts) is the tell. 3. Because the contract book the last few quarters was so "short dated", it's likely the company will benefit from the recent significant increase in GPU-hourly rates as these contracts end and GPUs re-contracted. It's early (only 14k GPUs) yet, but this last quarter showed a marked improvement in both the scale and tenor of IREN’s commenced revenue book. While Q1 and Q2 RPO was overwhelmingly concentrated within 24 months, Q3 saw a meaningful 25–60 month tail, suggesting an increase in contract duration and customer "lock-in effect".












$IREN Prices Upsized $2.6 Billion 1% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2033 @IREN_Ltd announced the pricing of its upsized private offering of $2.6 billion in 1.00% convertible senior notes due 2033 (increased from the previously announced $2 billion). Key Terms: - Coupon: 1.00% (paid semi-annually) - Maturity: December 1, 2033 - Initial Conversion Price: ~$73.07 per share (32.5% premium to the $55.15 closing price on May 11, 2026) - Conversion Rate: 13.6848 ordinary shares per $1,000 principal - Capped Calls: Entered with a cap price of $110.30 (100% premium) to reduce dilution upon conversion Proceeds & Use: - Expected net proceeds: $2.57 billion ($2.96 billion if the $400 million option is fully exercised) - ~$174.5 million to fund capped call transactions - Remainder for general corporate purposes and working capital The notes settle on May 14, 2026. This move provides IREN with significant low-cost capital to support its AI cloud and data center growth.


$CEVA Could run to $50 I think it could even get to $100 this year👀🤯 Since $NXPI has blowout earnings and they license technology to them and $ARM 👀 and $INTC 👀 AMD $QCOM 👀 and they all also had blowout earnings rhe writing is literally on the wall which makes sense that UBS got out in front of the earnings print and almost doubled their price target on them





Q1 2025: $IREN CEO Dan Roberts: "2 hours ago we got an email from a trillion dollar hyperscaler saying they weren’t interested in Sweetwater and now they are." Q3 2026: Sweetwater 1 Energized



$SPX Forecast: I believe that the S&P500 runs to 🎯7200 - 7300 by the end of February 👀 March and April are the months that I see a larger pullback in the neighborhood of 12% to 17% 😱… many tech stocks will be down 20% to 30% so it will feel a lot worse than it really is in my view🧐 I foresee that the $SPX 6000 to 6250 area will serve as a launchpad to my 2026 target of 🎯8000 🤯🤯🤯 Some names that I believe will have outperformance in 2026 are $AMZN $BA (Big 2026 for Boeing 😘) $CRWD $NOW $PANW $META $TSLA $NVDA and two special names that are not well known that are in tech that I will tell my SUBSCRIBERS about next week that I believe will double 👀 Happy Holidays! 🥳 Much love 💛🍌🍌🍌 Not financial advice!











@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit Hey Serenity. what other gems do you suggest for multibagger returns like SIVE? Just want to diversify the portfolio a bit. Thanks!!







