colonel selh

This was Lebanon in the 1960s, when it was still a Christian country and known as the Paris of the Middle East. Lebanon was created to be a Christian homeland for persecuted Christians in the region. But like naive Westerners today, it decided to be multicultural and include Muslims in the country. Once Muslims became the majority, they started a war to overthrow the Christians who welcomed them, and the country has not known peace ever since. Lebanon is the ultimate example that coexistence between radically different cultures is impossible.

I have talked to some Israeli officials and read a good deal of Israeli media. Here is how the war in Iran is perceived there so far: 1) On a tactical level, they believe it has gone very well and Israel has destroyed more of the Iranian military capability than expected. 2) They are disappointed that the regime has not been weakened as much as expected and that they remain in firm control. In particular the lack of a "rise up" among the population is a cause of concern. 3) They are finding Trump to be unreliable. While Israel favors a prolonged campaign to ensure total dismantlement of threats, Trump has signaled a desire to end the war "soon," creating a potential rift in war aims. 4) Hezbollah is stronger than expected. It has hit Israel with drones and missiles and killed soldiers. They have recovered better than expected. 5) The inability of Ben-Gurion airport to withstand closing and chaos has shown fragility in Israeli social cohesion. 6) They are disappointed in the lack of support from Gulf States who want an end to the war rather than the escalation Israel wants. 7) Israel accepts that the regime in Tehran will survive and just hopes that this weakens them in preparation for the next round. 8) There is a growing fear among Israeli strategists that they are winning the war but losing the region. While military targets are being obliterated, the civilian infrastructure damage is causing a backlash. 9) The war is proving very expensive. The need to divert NIS 28 billion ($9 billion) to the military has forced the government to freeze social projects, leading to the first significant anti-government protests since the war began, specifically from the middle class bearing the tax burden. 10) They are aware that the war is very unpopular in the US and that Israel is being blamed. They are concerned about the ramifications for the alliance. While Netanyahu is painting this as a huge success, it really doesn't look like one to Israeli strategic planners. The public knows it as well.

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