PatientCapital

@BULLReturns Which is what, 30-40% cash holdings?

.....yet his current largest position is #drypowder

@TheIdeaFarm @SystematicIRE @ManGroup This is chart crime to me? No idea how to interpret this at first glance.

📊 Chart of the Day Going into a drawdown, valuations have typically been expensive. @ManGroup theideafarm.com/markets/such-g…

10 Stats from The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing 1. Long-Term Asset Returns: Equities returned 4.9% real annually over 200 years versus 2.6% bonds and 1.9% bills. 2. Extreme Currency Losses: 25 of 55 currencies depreciated more than 99% against the US dollar. 3. Gold: Gold returned 7.45% real annually in the 21st century. 4. Valuations Matter: Low-P/E portfolios returned 20.2% annually versus 11.4% for high-P/E portfolios. 5. Cash is Trash: Equities underperform cash only 0.8% of the time over 25-year horizons. 6. Equities > Inflation: Equities fail to beat inflation about 25.8% of the time over five-year periods. 7. Bonds > Equities: Bonds outperform equities in roughly 22% of 25-year periods. 8. Top Market: Sweden delivered the strongest real equity returns over the last century at 7.5% annually. 9. US Exception: The US has never experienced equities underperforming bonds over any 25-year period. 10. Bond Losses: Bonds delivered negative nominal returns in about 7.7% of five-year periods.

@pareto34 Any idea what’s their performance like?

Saw Abdiel Capital liquidate their portfolio and spoke with a LP recently. Can confirm they are shutting down due to challenging performance

@negligible_cap Pretty sure Ackman pitched FNMA in late 2024, and it’s still a big winner even after the recent decline.

It’s crazy that both Bill Ackman and Michael Burry got super bullish on $FNMA and $FMCC and both wrote long form posts and pitches on the two GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are each down around 60% in the last 6 months Burry and Ackman have been getting creamed along with everyone who followed them into the trade. Even great investors get it wrong or get the timing wrong at a minimum

@piyushpant @dradammcleod @kejca So trimming from 50% to 22% no longer has to justify your “capital allocation 101 test”? I guess you will say it’s “risk management” now? Then it’s fair game to say that trimming a position underwritten by a subpar ex-employee constitute risk management as well.

@CapitalPatient @dradammcleod @kejca Apple is still Berkshires largest position by far. The only change has been position sizing - it used to be 50% of the equity portfolio and is now 22%. That is normal for any portfolio. That's not the argument being made about visa and MasterCard

Morningstar analyst Greggory Warren on Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio. "Todd Combs is gone now ... and they are likely to sell off holdings that he had. If you think about the holdings that he was probably responsible for, Visa and Mastercard jump out right away."

@systematicls If you can pick up the skills to compound at high rates, the salary doesn’t matter really. Longevity matters more, and it is just matter of time before your PA dollar return overtakes your pay check.

This. Young people go into the hedge fund industry thinking they'll leave rich. Every year, salaries gets compressed, non-competes get longer, you won't make partner at top firms. Alpha decay exists for industries too. You are too late for this game to be anything but a cog.

@piyushpant @dradammcleod @kejca So you believe that apple was sold because its expected return is lower than cash? Your cap allocation test 101 is elegant and nice, but reality is nobody does it in a strict sense.

@CapitalPatient @dradammcleod @kejca The business does not care about who "picked it". Selling it only based on who initially bought it fails the sensible capital allocation 101 test. If they needed capital for something else that would be fair enough but they are already drowning in surplus unallocated capital.

@piyushpant @dradammcleod @kejca Well it’s not really comparable. One is the holding picked by the GOAT, while the other was picked by an underperformer (no exact track record, but those that follow closely will tell you it isn’t pretty)

@dradammcleod @kejca Yeah a pretty stupid way to think about positions in great businesses ( which $V and $MA certainly are). You could similarly conjecture that thr $KO position will be eliminated now that the manager who bought it ( Buffett) has retired. Makes no sense.

@Polymarket If selling $50 million at one go crashes the price such that you end up getting $35 K, it means it wasn’t worth $50 million in the first place.

JUST IN: Crypto trader turns $50 million into $35k in a single swap after ignoring multiple slippage warnings.

@compound248 Not again... yardeni.com/charts/margin-…

@stocktalkweekly Yeah internet isn’t a fad, but who made money investing in internet after this article? NASDAQ didn’t recover until 10 years after this article. How many 10 years do we have? We are investing to make money after all.

December 5th, 2000

@NarutoNolimits Pay them minimum wage then, and see what happens.

Duolingo CEO thought his employees were communists

@MikeFritzell Accommodation gets really pricey, so much so that I felt like I was betraying my value investing principles by going there when I could just watch online. But my friends that went loved it.

Anyone going to the Berkshire AGM this year? I'm considering attending, for the first time ever

@MicroCapClub “Thank you” is unnecessary for ideas because that’s the analyst’s job. But “thank you” is definitely necessary if the idea made lots of money.

PM <-> Analyst relationship 😂

@LongVollllll Pretty sure that’s borderline illegal, for a company to snipe shorts using share repurchases.

Today I tired to explain to a CFO that it made sense to buy back 10% of the company as it grows 20% and has a 5% FCF yield. He said “we are a growth company.” I said that doesn’t mean you aren’t a growth company, it simply means so could roll the shorts as it’s a small mkt cap and the algos would catch on and go nuts (it would be akin to fidelity buying a big position). This would bring investors off the sidelines with fomo. He looked at me like I had three heads…

@termloanb @YellowCatCap A mediocre career that doesn’t spark any pride I guess. But yeah, a career.

@CapitalPatient @YellowCatCap Nah, it’s a job. Not saying you can be good at it with that attitude, but you can make a career out of it

Yet 90% of funds underperform and people rotate seats until they die And analysts who dont have book just have to be good at finding excuses / show they bring value. Its quite easy

@hiddensmallcaps @invertedfragil1 Not really. Over a B&H time frame (from ipo till now), for sure. But over 1 to 3 year holding periods (arguably “long time frame” for traders or speculators), the odds are pretty decent.

@invertedfragil1 I mean, I hear ya, but I think the reality is most stocks do suck over a long time frame.

This is why I prefer to trade stocks vs buy and hold (for individual stocks). If you want to buy and hold, you have to pick the top 4 out of 100.

@termloanb @YellowCatCap People that think it’s just a job is ngmi as an investor. The best ones live and breathe investing, seeing it as a craft to be mastered. Nothing wrong with seeing it as just a job, but that attitude is more suited for other industries.

@YellowCatCap People forget that it’s just a job