Carsten

@locksy @PredictHQ_ Let me load up on Farquaad at 2c

@PredictHQ_ Accepting wagers Who will be #1 public by end of 26? Moonlight or Kenobi ?

PredictHQ community members PNLs YTD && we are only 3 months into the year 🤯

@PredMTrader 🫡 Thanks PMT

Carsten and Hari are great people The biggest benefit I've found from partnering with others is the confidence to size up when you think you have a big edge Helps a lot having another person double check your rationale

@radarmentions excellent idea

New update on MentionsTerminal tool -> Word matrix now shows the # of mentions of a strike in each of the Yes grids! Super helpful for seeing if this is a word that they have to say one time, or if it gets spammed. See blow for an example of my personal Mamdani transcripts in here.

@CairoPyre My advice is join Kalshi, PredictHQ, or MentionMetrix discords. Chat in the channels, post ideas, discuss other peoples ideas. Take those conversations to dm's with the people you click with, send alpha to people who seem friendly. plenty of people getting started, making friends

Anybody new to the mentions market on Kalshi that could be interested in exchanging or collab on info? I really have no issues putting in the work but it's alot of gatekeeping.

@Squee451 @TK0382 😂 Superb. Best thing I've seen on twitter today.

When you arbitrage Kalshi yes shutdown with Polymarket no shutdown and win both sides and don't understand why.

@radarmentions I'll sign up for the BERNIE insurance policy. Thank you Radar

📻BERNIE RADAR: Bernie will stream his Bernie Durham Rally event today in Durham, I'm quite confident. So confident, that I'm giving away $200 below if he doesn't stream. I have gotten several dm's and discord msgs asking about if this event will stream. Don't be fooled by the FUD and yesterday's anomaly. This Bernie Mentions should be more like past rallies. Today, he's got an event that's been publicized in all the ways of his past rallies, including on his socials and with press and a co-speaker. The venue is one for rallies, and format is a rally not a sit down. Prices are way off. But... if I'm wrong, I'll give $5 each to the first 40 people who comment something with the word BERNIE in it below. (fine print: have to post BEFORE his event starts. only counts if all strikes resolve N. payable by solana in 48 hours if you send me your addy).

@Pete_Monahan_JD @GaetenD On the other hand viral twitter posts about trades and PMT streaming his strategies live to a thousand+ viewers is probably part of the reason mentions have grown so fast

@GaetenD Right, catboy did the same thing yesterday on an $70K+ win...I don't play mentions, but if I had no day job, I'd be in there trying to replicate every day. Not sure I get giving up that much potential alpha

And to think a couple months ago he would get this excited over $7 wins. He's come a long way!

@catboyautist @QbertTrades I'm glad the aggressive bonder who's typing this message, slept in instead of giving Moonlight 30k more!

I just made $65K from 700$ in one click. This morning I was discussing with my friend @QbertTrades about how people were becoming more and more aggressive with bonding in situations that weren't safe and are -EV. 30 minutes later, I got my biggest win ever from just that. I was playing Kathy Hochul's market and she had just finished on topic Q&A and her stream cut to black. I have been watching her events for weeks and have seen this happen before, where she came back after to answer off topic questions. I saw the orderbook; strikes had been bonded for 60-70K at 99c for no. I patiently watched and waited for the stream to end or for her to come back, and when she did I immediately bought as many 1 cent Y's as I could. I also had a ton of billion and safe Y which could have hit as well. She ended up saying Trump and I printed $65K for 20 mins of my time. Could have been over $100K. Being diligent and paying attention to event risk (as someone who does some bonding) are quintessential if you want to avoid blowing up your port.

@bernardbulletin *Jason Kelce Super Bowl Saga

The book is now closed on the Travis Kelce Super Bowl saga. As the last strike to be resolved in the attendance market, the Kalshi team was clearly waiting to hear Kelce's podcast today. They apparently heard no indication that he stuck around for the game. Resolves NO.

@VanillaVICE It was funny in August and its still funny now. Seems like it aged fine?

Did not age well. FACT.

@ToonMatthewT1 @LoganPredicts 😂

@LoganPredicts Paper hands

Spent all day sizing Anthropic NO for superbowl ads to 95k shares at 35.1c cost basis. Thought FV was 85c and it was in the 20s when I started buying.

@andrewcourt1 I noticed you held a bunch of YES positions. Because of the order flow, collateral returns, and fees I think it generally makes sense to bet No shares with resting limit orders rather than Yes shares on these sorts of markets

Lost ~$9k on the Grammys markets. Reflection on what I'd do differently at the link below. Watching these markets live - maybe some traders didn't know that many of the winners were announced in the Premiere Ceremony prior to the main show, there was some resting liquidity in many markets being swept about 10-15 seconds faster than the live Youtube feed. Never leave orders out through the event!

@alch3my101 @radarmentions this state of the state scripts get leaked a lot so careful leaving resting orders up.

@radarmentions Always learning something. Nuked 20% of the port in this one. Went from bad to worse lol.

Never a dull moment with Mentions... Kevin Stitt State of State was leaked.... IN SPANISH. So the market moved heavily, but some words are rough translations and could go different ways. The big question: will he say tribe / tribal? The Spanish is something like "pueblos indígenas"... but that's not a phrase he'd usually literally say in English. "Indigenous towns". I put some at $0.25 odds he'll say Tribal after all... he's more likely from past speeches, and he could say it at start or end of speech in a few ways outside his speech. That said, there's apparently some drama with tribes/state.. so maybe he's not mentioning them, and they may not even be coming to state of state. Buckle up!

@GaetenD I'll be your exit liquidity for one of your good bets that isn't really good, so you can rotate out of the good ones and into the really good ones. Just let me know where to put my orders.

Another liquidity crisis 10 days later and $32k richer.

@SahAadi11 I clicked around and bit in the replay and didn't come across much speaking. Would be interested to hear more commentary or analysis, but its tough to do while trading live I suppose.

@LucyCro63776176 I'm sorry for your loss

Life has not been easy on me (or my adult daughter by transitivity) since I became widowed. I miss my neurotypical anchor.

@ilikestarburst1 @PredMTrader I'm riffing on pmt clickbait like this post. PMT is riffing back continuing the joke. Market rules are clear and it wouldn't count and we both know that. x.com/PredMTrader/st…

@educcstolz @PredMTrader what was pmt trying to say then

One of the biggest mistakes in Trump mention markets is over-indexing to the stated topic of a speech. Trump’s speech patterns are highly volatile. The odds of him mentioning “Iran” at an education event may be higher than you think.

@PredMTrader Ahh good point. Lucky win for me

@educcstolz I thought he would say "I ran" for re election

@ilikestarburst1 @PredMTrader Correct

@PredMTrader @educcstolz iran would still resolve N though right