Carter Forbes

Predicting career lengths of notable NFL rookies based on draft pick and position! Taking a QB in the draft can result in surplus-value. However, the probability of this happening is small. Especially when the player isn't drafted in the top half of round one. #NFLDraft

@StevePalazzolo_ Surprisingly, the data we have says it’s Rivers but no one would will say that

Which QB had the best NFL career?

@grekyx @OptimisticJets Swap Jets and Saints and replace Olave with Garret Wilson. Would you do this trade?

@OptimisticJets I already made a trade package about like 3-4 weeks ago: Jets Receive:Chris Olave, pick 9 2025 Saints Reveive:Pick 7 2025, 3rd round pick 2025

If I’m Darren Mougey, I would be on the phone with the Saints trying to trade for Chris Olave. #Jets desperately need a #2 receiver and Olave would fit right in with his former Ohio State teammates Garrett Wilson and Justin Fields

@BuffaloJetFan Can’t take Warren because he’s a TE

@BrettKollmann @jetto46 Comparing a potential top 10 pick to a 3rd round selection?

@jetto46 He’s Jurrell Casey. That’s good.

EJ and I just dropped a 22-minute BONUS episode for all Patrons over on the Bootleg Patreon. In that bonus video, we broke down the strengths and weaknesses of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, and explained why our grades on Graham are not exactly what we expected them to be.

@CDFBAnalysis Hit rates plus positional value. Very easy choice

@JCaporoso OT, QB, or Edge

Who is your current preferred pick for the #Jets at #7 overall?

@Michael_Nania @jetsxfactor Survivorship bias

I looked at the resumes of the top GMs in the NFL to identify trends in their backgrounds. The 3 #Jets candidates whose resumes most closely match the typical top-tier GM: - Lance Newmark - Jon-Eric Sullivan - Darren Mougey Details 👉 jetsxfactor.com/2025/01/18/ny-…

@KevinCole___ The mistakes he made last night and against Detroit are the same issues that have defined his career. It’s crazy opinions flip this fast

@KevinCole___ The “flip” on Darnold is incredible. I didn’t know the masses had this in them. Is there a better example of recency bias / playing awful in island games forming opinions? Even for people looking at straight results, box score stats, or AQE! He had a great season.

Going to have some serious whiplash seeing the same people arguing the Vikings had to re-sign Darnold to start next season be "he's dead to me" now* *Still some ball left to play

An NFL head coach hire in the year 2025

@NickBallKnower 7 is fair for them

I don't think the Chiefs should be in the top 5

@JCaporoso Halaby would be great for us

Unsure - I'd like to see them interview both even though I am a Borgonzi fan and like a few other the requests like Halaby, Dimitroff and Greenberg

@KevinCole___ @SethWalder Did Seth’s article provide reasons? I’m curios why so many people selected him

Was the most common name in @SethWalder's analytics staffer poll for next numbers-guy-turned-GM

@JCaporoso 6-8

Believe the range is currently 5-8

@sarit94152726 @JCaporoso @ConnorJRogers Total EPA Allen: 193.1 Rodgers: 49.5

@JCaporoso @ConnorJRogers Can someone explain to me how rodgers is an issue for this team and why he shouldn't be back next year ? His stats almost identical to josh Allen's

@tonypayments Olu could be a bust and it would still be the right pick

I know we stink and not many people care but Olu Fashanu is a legitimate stud at the second most important position on offense. That was the right pick.

@ZazzyJets We should be looking for a GM with a good process - history of positional value and willingness to trade back to name a few. I agree with GM > draft pick

A good GM can find talent up and down the draft. I am more worried about finding that person than draft position. Would it be nice to have a higher pick? Of course, but it is not a necessity. #Jets

@KevinCole___ What are you excluding here? Fumbles on completions, spikes, & knees?

Week 14 quarterback efficiency through SNF, min 15 dropbacks 1) Matthew Stafford +0.78 2) Brock Purdy +0.76 3) Josh Allen +0.65 4) Sam Darnold +0.63 5) Jordan Love +0.42 6) Tua Tagovailoa +0.42 7) Aaron Rodgers +0.38 8) Jared Goff +0.30 9) Justin Herbert +0.24 10) Geno Smith +0.18 11) Baker Mayfield +0.17 12) Patrick Mahomes +0.13 13) Derek Carr +0.13 14) Bryce Young +0.09 15) Mac Jones +0.08 16) Jalen Hurts +0.03 17) Kirk Cousins +0.02 18) Russell Wilson +0.02 19) Desmond Ridder 0.00 20) Drew Lock -0.10 21) Kyler Murray -0.10 22) Jameis Winston -0.12 23) Caleb Williams -0.17 24) Will Levis -0.23 25) Aidan O'Connell -0.34

2024 quarterback efficiency (EPA/play), min 200 dropbacks 1) Josh Allen +0.32 📈 2) Lamar Jackson +0.28 3) Tua Tagovailoa +0.27 📈 4) Jared Goff +0.26 5) Brock Purdy +0.23 📈 6) Jayden Daniels +0.23 7) Joe Burrow +0.21 8) Jordan Love +0.21 📈 9) Baker Mayfield +0.18 10) Sam Darnold +0.17 📈 11) Kyler Murray +0.15 📉 12) Russell Wilson +0.15 📉 13) Derek Carr +0.15 14) Patrick Mahomes +0.15 15) Jalen Hurts +0.14 📉 16) Matthew Stafford +0.14 📈 17) Justin Herbert +0.10 18) Kirk Cousins +0.09 19) Geno Smith +0.08 20) Trevor Lawrence +0.06 21) Aaron Rodgers +0.06 📈 22) Bo Nix +0.05 23) Jameis Winston +0.05 24) C.J. Stroud +0.03 25) Drake Maye +0.02 26) Dak Prescott +0.01 27) Anthony Richardson -0.02 28) Caleb Williams -0.02 📉 29) Daniel Jones -0.03 30) Bryce Young -0.07 31) Gardner Minshew -0.09 32) Will Levis -0.12 33) Deshaun Watson -0.21

@c_killington @benbbaldwin @SamMonsonNFL QBs have never contributed to a dropped pass?

@CarterForbes11 @benbbaldwin @SamMonsonNFL Dropped passes

EPA is just yards per play adjusted for situation and is a terrible way to measure most individual positions.

@c_killington @benbbaldwin @SamMonsonNFL Can you name an offensive stat that isn’t a team stat?

@benbbaldwin @SamMonsonNFL Even for QBs it’s not that good. EPA is mostly a team stat