Chad Wong

JUST IN: PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP NOMINATES KEVIN WARSH AS CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE I gave you the alpha on December 15 #gigachad

@annanay They probably just saw huge retail imbalance to buy Knicks and took the other side (because fading retail and selling tails is probably generally +EV) in size and got blown up when it went against them x.com/chadwwong/stat…

Imagine being the head of trading at SIG for prediction markets and paying to fix every game but your homies mixed up who was supposed to win and now you're down 10 million

This chart aggregates all makers. A good market maker would be able to balance inventory through selectively making and also taking (perhaps on other exchanges) to increase their EV. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if Susquehanna leaned into the Knicks sales given customers were overwhelmingly buyers and trading against customers is typically +EV

Pretty surprising that market making prediction markets is so hard - would have assumed that sophisticated players would be able to price/hedge against the risk better

@blondesnmoney @Kalshi As a very wide estimate, if you assume Susquehanna participated on 33% to 67% of Kalshi maker trades then my 60% confidence interval on their total pnl on this market (including trades on exchanges other than Kalshi) would be between -$5mm and -$15mm

@blondesnmoney @Kalshi This is just all volume from general makers, on Kalshi only. Very much true that market makers could “take” too. I’m assuming all of the takers come from customers crossing spread just to demonstrate the overall scale of the imbalance & pnl

Market makers on Kalshi lost $22 million on the Knicks vs Spurs Game 4 moneyline

@__Max__S__ @Kalshi That’s right. If taker buys 10 shares, then maker has to sell 10 shares. So equal volume but the imbalance is 10

@ChadWWong @Kalshi I’m confused how can there be imbalance between taker maker vol. Doesn’t a taker technically execute every transaction and a maker absorbs it meaning there should be equal volume?

@InGameHQ Looks like market makers in aggregate lost $22 million yesterday x.com/ChadWWong/stat…

Susquehanna International Group’s prediction market desk took its biggest sports loss making markets during the Knicks’ Game 4 NBA Finals comeback Wednesday, while Kalshi reported a record day for volume. Susquehanna’s losses, a source familiar with the situation says, were almost entirely on the game-winner market.

Gigachads never lose

@HarryStebbings Can’t even find a place to eat past like 6, 7 pm these days

The Origins of Corgi Cafe: "A huge problem with San Francisco is that everything closes really early. There are lots of startups that want to push themselves hard, but you can’t even find a cafe or a place to eat after 6:00 or 7:00 PM. It’s a ridiculous situation, clearly most restaurants don’t have a growth mindset." @nico_laqua Love to hear your thoughts on this @levelsio @davidu @jason @dhh

@jeremybernier How many layoffs again

At Meta, 90% of my coworkers were Chinese, and non-Chinese were routinely excluded, disadvantaged, and targeted for layoffs. 6 out of the 7 layoffs I observed targeted non-Chinese despite non-Chinese being the vast minority. Certain orgs like ads and MRS are notorious for being Chinese dominated. I think Americans would be outraged if they knew that their own citizens were getting marginalized and laid off at their own companies, while Chinese promote themselves up, conquer entire orgs, and reap millions. Imagine if Huawei in Shenzhen had entire orgs and leadership chains completely dominated by Japanese people who brazenly spoke Japanese at work without a care in the world that their Chinese coworkers don't understand, imposed their own work culture without respecting Chinese culture, excluded the Chinese, and laid off Chinese people while promoting their own. I imagine Chinese citizens would be outraged, and never allow that to happen in the first place. The most blatant and obvious way that non-Chinese are excluded is that Chinese primarily speak Mandarin at work. I'm not talking about one-off conversations, I'm talking about every single conversation. Loudly and brazenly with no respect for others. 10+ teammates and leaders having a group conversation in Mandarin while the 2 non-Chinese don't understand and feel excluded from the team. Although everyone at least has the decency to speak English during formal meetings with a non-speaker present, it was common that right after the meeting ended everyone would immediately switch to Mandarin. Funny I'm in Korea right now and was just on a double date with 3 other Koreans, and I was shocked that when the conversation would split into two, the other couple would speak to each other in English in my presence just out of respect. A Korean couple on a double-date had the courtesy to speak to each other in English in front of me even though I'd never expect that from them, but my Chinese coworkers did not. Lunch was another place where non-Chinese were blatantly excluded. Recall that the team I joined was an all Chinese team with only one other non-Chinese person. The Chinese would always get lunch together and never invite us (except for one of them who occasionally would, though at some point stopped). Me and the non-Chinese person would invite them, they'd always refuse, and then shortly after they'd disappear and get lunch together. As a result, it was usually just the two of us getting lunch. (caveat, some of the newer Chinese who joined afterwards also experienced similar treatment. So it's moreso a clique thing than a Chinese vs. non-Chinese thing, though 100% of the clique was Chinese) On Wednesdays and Fridays I'd often be the only non-Chinese person on my team in the office, and they'd all get lunch together without inviting me. It was depressing, and made me not want to come into the office on those days. One team dinner we went to a Korean BBQ. I arrived with a non-Chinese coworker and the first table was full, so we sat at one end of the next empty table. Shortly after one of the Tech Leads walked in, and sat at the complete opposite end of our table, alone and not in talking distance to anyone. We invited her over, and she declined. Later another Tech Lead came in and sat across from her. Non-Chinese and Chinese at opposite ends of a long table at a team dinner, and they refused to sit with us. Eventually more people came and the TLs joined our side because I guess maybe it was too obviously anti-social, and they spent the entire dinner speaking speaking Chinese to each other. These were our tech leads. I could not understand how Meta could have "Tech Leads" that so blatantly excluded teammates. I thought Tech Leads were supposed to uplift the team, and that Meta would hold tech leads to a higher standard. Now someone might say that it's just lunch or a one-off team dinner, who cares? To that I vehemently disagree. Lunch is extremely important for team bonding, and so much information is transferred through informal socializing. I'm not saying that everyone needs to get lunch together everyday, but if a minority of people are excluded from getting lunch with the rest of the team, and especially the most tenured and senior employees, then naturally that minority is going to feel alienated, disadvantaged, and excluded from opportunities. And the very fact that they're excluded from lunch is reflective of being excluded in general. When 90% of an org and the entire leadership chain is dominated by one ethnicity, naturally their work culture is going to spill through. Chinese culture is completely different from American work culture, and learning to navigate that was a huge obstacle for me. For example I'm the type that tends to question everything and isn't afraid to challenge a "superior", but I quickly realized that my TL seemed to take offense to that, and would punish/retaliate me for it. I want to make it clear - I have nothing against Chinese people. Most of them are very kind (strong correlation between kindness and not engaging in the kind of exclusionary behavior I mentioned above), and I have many good friends who are Chinese. I get that some barely speak English (though I question how they got hired). I do genuinely believe that most are good people, and not deliberately trying to exclude others. But regardless of intent, the result is that non-Chinese get excluded. The fact that 6 of the 7 layoffs I observed were not Chinese in a 80-90% Chinese dominated org is testament to this. The fact that 90% Chinese dominated orgs even exist in the first place is testament to this. I might not even be posting about this given the sensitivity of the topic if not for the fact that I've seen and/or heard stories of some very toxic people who I do not believe would otherwise survive if not for their ability to exclude others, throwing others under the bus for the next layoff. The same people do this over and over again, and get away with it because they're part of the "clique" that essentially has immunity. I think the company needs to take this more seriously. Some ideas would be enforcing English at the office (I've heard of other teams that do this), raising leaders to a higher bar when it comes to team inclusivity (eg. under the "People" axis), investigating potential discrimination cases (eg. layoffs and/or mistreatment disproportionally affecting certain groups) and having a zero tolerance policy around that, having a zero tolerance policy around injustice in general (eg. lying or deliberately throwing somebody under the bus), ensuring more diverse teams, etc. But to be honest, I don't have faith that much would change so long as the entire leadership chain up to the VP level is dominated by the same ethnicity, language, and culture. Nor does it seem that leadership even remotely cares given that this has been happening in the HQ for probably at least the last decade, and is obvious to anyone who's stepped foot in the office.

@nypost Make it tighter

Hamptons residents shelling out tens of thousands for 'tightest vagina' as demands for peak sexual performance skyrocket trib.al/jn8KH2G

@TThompson @vydamo_ The Big one $GIGA

are the trenches still alive? which memecoins yall buying?

@sebviceversa They should put it on variancevault.xyz @finn_hulse

Duel launched Rock Paper Scissors - no house edge, just live 1v1 PvP. The whole point: 100% RTP. Nobody makes money on the round itself - it's just a fair 1:1 online matchup. You create a game, set your bet size and accepted currencies, or join an existing one. How the PF works: both players' picks get hashed (SHA256 + a client key) and locked in before either side reveals. After the round, both keys and picks are published - anyone can recompute the hashes and verify neither side changed their pick mid-game. True 1v1, no house in between. Maybe we can do RPS tournaments for now - no more giveaways, just double or lose your prize.

@solunavaxxer Perfectly rebalanced @anydotfund

@AlphadrakeX @solunavaxxer @anydotfund

@solunavaxxer Do you usually rebalance back to 3:1 and keep it around that ratio?

@TNTCapitalC Am I a retard or are you a retard

The @gigachad hoodies are really nice. Only Gigachads wear them.

@finn_hulse Finn’s pose in that pic be like

gigachads never give up gigachads never lose thank you @ChadWWong for immortalized this maxim on the mainnet ledger and for the merch

@GavinSBaker @grok What are some datacenter semis names that Gavin is referring to

Interesting that datacenter semis, which are super leveraged to this given high compute intensity, are trading at their biggest discount to industrial semis in the last 5 years with more derisked estimates. Positioning in semis also at 5 yr lows per GS. nytimes.com/2023/01/07/tec…

@alexoakdev variancevault.xyz for fitness @finn_hulse

Someone built a fitness app using the same psychological mechanics as gambling This might work better than every normal fitness app 😭😭 You bet money on whether you’ll hit 10,000 steps today If you fail, you lose your money If you succeed, you split the money from everyone who didn’t So disciplined people literally profit off lazy people Most fitness apps try motivating you with streaks and notifications This one motivates you with financial fear Imagine realizing at 11:52pm you still need 1,700 more steps or you lose $30 Entire friend groups would be outside walking laps around their neighborhood before midnight trying not to lose their steppa challenge It sounds stupid but this would probably motivate people better than any other fitness product Would you use this yourself?