ValueInvestorMasochist

$NN did something leak? My understanding was blog post supposed to be tomorrow.

@FishOnCapital Any incremental view on the sell-off from yesterday?

$NN is extremely mispriced here. OIRA's sole function is ensuring agency actions align with Administration goals. Technical review sits with the FCC, and an NPRM doesn't reach OIRA without FCC sign off. The bear case now requires administrative support, one of the core points of the $NN thesis, to unwind over one opposition meeting. Given where this NPRM is in the process, I'd put those odds near zero.

@evrgn11112231 @based16z What do you think creates this psychological disconnect with $META every few years that leads to these large price discolorations? I’m happy to keep buying lower.

Buy meta because of the low price to earnings ratio? Mate there’s like 200 analysts and 2000 algorithms on it how would that be edge

@MudlarkCapital Very helpful, thank you. Was involved pre-CE sale and hoping to get involved again post spin. Feels like it could get puked indiscriminately.

@MudlarkCapital What's the math behind $15.20? Appreciate the insight.

@FishOnCapital Very strong language in the press release and conference call. Think it could trade north of $24 per share on official NPRM announcement.

Why $NN shares waited until earnings to react when Communications Daily literally told us an NPRM is coming two weeks ago, and OIRA stated it had received the FCC's NPRM, I do not know... Either way, there's a very strong set of catalysts ahead, and I think we can go MUCH higher.

@evrgn11112231 Definitely! Fortunate to have the duration. Appreciate your insights on $META.

@evrgn11112231 Wouldn’t that be a massive buy signal? 😂

@absreturnchaser @MarkRadcliffe44 What do you view as downside in event of no sale? How long would a leaseback take?

Spire health is now my biggest position. risk reward is getting better and better #spi

@valuedontlie $LEG could be wrapped up by the summer if they can agree on a price with $SGI. I think mid-teens gets it done. Definitely see more upside longer term standalone since the business is at a trough in multiple segments.

Names I like and have talked about $ATNI 3-5yr horizon (maybe longer) $DNOW 3yrs (maybe longer) $LEG 2-3yrs $ZD 9-12 months $VSNT 6-12 months $STRZ 3yrs $APTV 3-12 months (depends on spin valuation)

@absreturnchaser Any view on potential bid levels? Was thinking 330p could get it done. Small cap aerospace assets are getting gobbled up.

@ACapitalLP How does $SATS not work? It still trades at a large discount to implied SpaceX value, so I feel like I’m missing something here.

@theotheraharon @Fierce__beast I’ve seen estimates as high as $18 to $20 per share on a sum of the parts without heroic multiple assumptions. I think the most likely outcome is they sell for $14-$16. Time will tell.

@CheapStockGuy @Fierce__beast No view on potential price; I'm just trying to work out what it might be worth over the next few years on a standalone basis in case nothing happens w/$SGI, who I agree have good reason to make something happen.

anyone bullish on $snbr?

@theotheraharon @Fierce__beast Any view on potential new price from $SGI for $LEG? I was thinking $14-$16 per share. Scott Thompson usually gets what he wants and this would be a great asset to buy while the industry is at a trough.

@Fierce__beast Thinking about it. But thinking about buying more $LEG, too, so don't listen to me.

@evrgn11112231 @chat_SBC Where does $TDG fall in there?

best business of the group?

@cousinbalin @SpecialSitsNews Didn’t you hear AI will replace Class 8 trucks?

@SpecialSitsNews Funny that it took the truckers down too $KNX and $HTLD down.

Transportation & logistics equities are selling off sharply today ( $RXO, $CHRW, $EXPD) with no obvious company-specific catalyst, extending the market’s recent pattern of rotating through “AI-disruption” candidates. After pressure on CRE brokers, financial advisors, and insurance brokers earlier this week—and persistent weakness in SaaS—the tape is increasingly treating intermediated, workflow-heavy business models as structurally at risk. In this framework, the bear case is that AI agents compress the value of brokerage and forwarding by automating core tasks (quote generation, routing decisions, load matching, documentation, claims/exception handling) and accelerating price transparency—driving take-rate compression and lower gross profit per transaction. The absence of discrete news suggests positioning and narrative are doing the work: investors are pre-emptively repricing sectors where revenue is tied to headcount-intensive coordination and information advantage. Net: this looks less like an idiosyncratic event and more like a regime shift in risk premia—markets are widening the discount rate on “middleman” economics and rewarding asset-heavy or IP-heavy models with clearer moats.

@chipperPat Fears in trucking brokers seemed to trickle down to actual operators. Scratching my head here…

Are we seeing AI related sell off in some value/industrial names? Or did they get a massive inflow from passive/factor flows and those with short interests and momentum caught a nice run and now they are coming back to earth as reality of earnings sets in….

@ACapitalLP @origoinvest Agreed. Why do you think the discount to NAV is so large? Market unwilling to give full credit for SpaceX valuation?

$SATS is +46% since this post yet the R/R is even better now Always be re-underwriting

@evrgn11112231 Might as well sell $TDG, AI is going to replace spare aircraft parts.

@AggieCapitalist $PAR winning new deals every week yet the stock continues to melt lower. It's been very frustrating.

Software revenue revisions keep moving higher while the stocks meltdown. Take SMID software for example, FY2 sales revisions up about 6-7% over the last 6 months while the stocks are down >30%.