Cliff Young

NEW @Ipsos Populism report. 56% of Brits say "to be truly British, you need to be born here". We're not alone here - it's the majority sentiment in 25/31 countries. Top analysis by @CliffAYoung @mathieugallard and team ipsos.com/en/support-pop…

WATCH: "Even though he's doing things that people don't like, his numbers haven't imploded. ... Right now he is nothing more than average." @CliffAYoung from @ipsosus on President Trump's approval ratings as he nears his first 100 days in office.

Lula’s Climb: What Brazil’s 2026 Election Is (and Isn’t) About It’s not about who wins—it’s about the forces shaping the outcome. I apply my “open-ended triangulation” method to the race: Polls. Fundamentals. Alignment with the main problem. Right now, Lula faces headwinds: • Weak in 2nd-round polls • Approval near the tipping point • Misaligned with top concerns: crime, corruption, economy This isn’t a prediction. It’s a pattern. Full analysis: shorturl.at/xAnad #Brasil #Lula #Election2026 #Foresight

How the 2026 Brazilian Election is stacking up.  Just back from 10 days in Brazil, where politics are shifting—but the future is still unclear. Essay Here: shorturl.at/RCfMN Read: “Knowledge Totems: Brazil, 2026, and the Limits of Political Probabilities” This post explores the limits of early political probabilities and introduces a better way to read what’s coming: open-ended triangulation. Polls matter. But they’re not enough. Subscribe to Polls & Patterns for more insight at the edge of foresight, values, and power.

March is ending. Time for new beginnings: POTUS Mornings with @mychaelschnell John A Lawrence @CliffAYoung @BenWolfgang_TWT @NicholsUprising @adamgoodman3 @alex_shephard New polling Signal SNAFU Election Tuesday preview and the army of tomorrow (robots?) 7-9am @siriusxmpotus

Tenho uma explicação detalhada em meu livro “Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion”. Capitulo 9 “Triangulated Election Forecasting”

Sim, foi desenvolvido no Brasil. Mas tem que usar a pergunta binaria. não precisa ser atualizada. foi um ciclo de aprovação baixa que o modelo capta

This week’s special WW on @CNNBrasil discusses the impact of new digital platforms on US elections and the way we analyze them using polls and data analytics. It was great to join the head of Ipsos USA @CliffAYoung and Timelens’ @dolcirenato. William Waack never disappoints.

Teaser do excelente debate que tivemos com @andrei__roman e @CliffAYoung sobre as redes sociais na vitória de Donald Trump. Não perca, no Domingo, 22h, na @CNNBrasil

🇺🇸#TrumpPresident : @Ipsos's @CliffAYoung on why Americans chose #Trump, saying, "it's not about inflation, it's about cost levels. Many Americans were frustrated by the Democrats' lead" 👉@FrancoisF24 is live from Washington ➡️Your reactions on #F24Debate

“Over the last few days there was a slight, soft but discernible, improvement for Kamala.” It’s too difficult to say whether any polling lead will “materialise in the actual results” at the voting booth, says pollster @CliffAYoung. @KaitBorsay | #TimesRadio

@rnishimura can you take this a step further and say “everything is in our heads”?

Another word of statistical advice: Don't worry too much about any specific probabilities you see out there! As de Finetti puts it "PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST", in the sense that there is no "true probability". Probability is in your head, as a measure of your own uncertainty.

We’re on with @SCClemons for our Battlegrounds session with panelists @muthoniwambu, @MikeDuHaime & @CliffAYoung! On the eve of the U.S. elections we are discussing Democratic and Republican perspectives on what is happening.

Our pal @CliffAYoung from @Ipsos dropped a new batch of polls on voter sentiment and trends on #TheFinal5: More to learn if you read the piece below, or watch the segment. Or do both. fox5dc.com/news/pollster-…

Want to know what’s really happening with public opinion around the #Election? @CliffAYoung from @ipsospa is the expert in the know!

@rnishimura They are equally good. or equally bad. Your thought experiment is a game of chance not one of skill. The problem is that nothing in reality is equal

Let's further assume full response and complete coverage (we never have that in practice, but this is a thought experiment!) One of them gets the voting estimates slightly closer to the election results than the other. Question: should they receive more credit? Why or why not?

Thought experiment: I draw two probability samples with same design from same population. Then I give each sample to two pollsters to conduct an exit poll. They use the exact same polling protocols, questionnaire, weighting adjustments, etc. +

An 87% majority of Americans have a favorable view of Canada, the best rating of nine countries tested. Views of Mexico are more mixed, with 59% viewing Mexico favorably and 41% responding unfavorably. (@CliffAYoung @IpsosUS) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241027

The link between media consumption and public opinion. (@CliffAYoung @IpsosUS) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241020

Essential weekend reading from @CliffAYoung and team