Cliff Young

3.5K posts

Cliff Young banner
Cliff Young

Cliff Young

@CliffAYoung

I love both words and numbers. If only I could conjugate them together. Elections enthusiast. Fan—Chicago Cubs and São Paulo Football Club. Tweets are my own.

Washington D.C. Katılım Nisan 2012
1.1K Takip Edilen8.8K Takipçiler
Cliff Young retweetledi
Washington Journal
Washington Journal@cspanwj·
WATCH: "Even though he's doing things that people don't like, his numbers haven't imploded. ... Right now he is nothing more than average." @CliffAYoung from @ipsosus on President Trump's approval ratings as he nears his first 100 days in office.
English
10
1
3
686
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
Lula’s Climb: What Brazil’s 2026 Election Is (and Isn’t) About It’s not about who wins—it’s about the forces shaping the outcome. I apply my “open-ended triangulation” method to the race: Polls. Fundamentals. Alignment with the main problem. Right now, Lula faces headwinds: • Weak in 2nd-round polls • Approval near the tipping point • Misaligned with top concerns: crime, corruption, economy This isn’t a prediction. It’s a pattern. Full analysis: shorturl.at/xAnad #Brasil #Lula #Election2026 #Foresight
Cliff Young tweet media
English
0
2
3
431
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
How the 2026 Brazilian Election is stacking up.  Just back from 10 days in Brazil, where politics are shifting—but the future is still unclear. Essay Here: shorturl.at/RCfMN Read: “Knowledge Totems: Brazil, 2026, and the Limits of Political Probabilities” This post explores the limits of early political probabilities and introduces a better way to read what’s coming: open-ended triangulation. Polls matter. But they’re not enough. Subscribe to Polls & Patterns for more insight at the edge of foresight, values, and power.
Cliff Young tweet media
English
0
2
4
363
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
Tenho uma explicação detalhada em meu livro “Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion”. Capitulo 9 “Triangulated Election Forecasting”
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimura

@dbelemlopes @CliffAYoung Você acha que essa tabela se aplica ao Brasil? E será que ela precisa ser atualizada depois de ciclos eleitorais ao redor do mundo como do ano passado?

Português
0
0
3
202
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
Sim, foi desenvolvido no Brasil. Mas tem que usar a pergunta binaria. não precisa ser atualizada. foi um ciclo de aprovação baixa que o modelo capta
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimura

@dbelemlopes @CliffAYoung Você acha que essa tabela se aplica ao Brasil? E será que ela precisa ser atualizada depois de ciclos eleitorais ao redor do mundo como do ano passado?

Português
0
0
3
166
Cliff Young retweetledi
Times Radio
Times Radio@TimesRadio·
“Over the last few days there was a slight, soft but discernible, improvement for Kamala.” It’s too difficult to say whether any polling lead will “materialise in the actual results” at the voting booth, says pollster @CliffAYoung. @KaitBorsay | #TimesRadio
English
1
2
11
5.1K
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
@rnishimura can you take this a step further and say “everything is in our heads”?
English
2
0
3
630
Raphael Nishimura
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimura·
Another word of statistical advice: Don't worry too much about any specific probabilities you see out there! As de Finetti puts it "PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST", in the sense that there is no "true probability". Probability is in your head, as a measure of your own uncertainty.
Raphael Nishimura tweet media
English
8
6
44
33.1K
Cliff Young retweetledi
IFES
IFES@IFES1987·
We’re on with @SCClemons for our Battlegrounds session with panelists @muthoniwambu, @MikeDuHaime & @CliffAYoung! On the eve of the U.S. elections we are discussing Democratic and Republican perspectives on what is happening.
IFES tweet media
English
1
2
9
2.2K
Cliff Young
Cliff Young@CliffAYoung·
@rnishimura They are equally good. or equally bad. Your thought experiment is a game of chance not one of skill. The problem is that nothing in reality is equal
English
1
0
3
64
Cliff Young retweetledi
Raphael Nishimura
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimura·
Let's further assume full response and complete coverage (we never have that in practice, but this is a thought experiment!) One of them gets the voting estimates slightly closer to the election results than the other. Question: should they receive more credit? Why or why not?
English
2
1
3
918
Raphael Nishimura
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimura·
Thought experiment: I draw two probability samples with same design from same population. Then I give each sample to two pollsters to conduct an exit poll. They use the exact same polling protocols, questionnaire, weighting adjustments, etc. +
English
1
1
7
2.7K
Cliff Young retweetledi
Opinion Today
Opinion Today@OpinionToday·
An 87% majority of Americans have a favorable view of Canada, the best rating of nine countries tested. Views of Mexico are more mixed, with 59% viewing Mexico favorably and 41% responding unfavorably. (@CliffAYoung @IpsosUS) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241027
Opinion Today tweet media
English
1
2
2
1.4K